Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The Lakers-Clippers back-to-back is a staple of many teams\u2019 seasons, as the two teams\u2019 stadiums are just 10 miles apart. The Oklahoma City Thunder managed the first leg spectacularly last night, routing the Luka Don\u010di\u0107, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James-less Lakers. They\u2019ll now hope to complete the double \u2014 and the season sweep over both Los Angeles teams \u2014 with a 10:10 p.m. ET contest against the Clippers at the Intuit Dome.<\/p>\n
With both teams on the second night of a back-to-back, there could be several veterans rested, but the teams are otherwise pretty healthy. Darius Garland (injury management) is LA\u2019s biggest absence. Oklahoma City, which could clinch the first seed tonight with a win, will have its full roster available.<\/p>\n
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-305 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 227.5. The Clippers are +245 on the Moneyline. Below, I\u2019ll break down this potential 1-8 preview and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers preview, prediction<\/p>\n Oklahoma City\u2019s consistent brilliance has been overshadowed somewhat by the San Antonio Spurs\u2019, Atlanta Hawks\u2019, and Charlotte Hornets\u2019 hot form over the same span, but it\u2019s hard to overstate the dominance of a team that\u2019s gone 21-2 since the All-Star break. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is closing in on a second straight MVP, as he\u2019s averaging 29.9 points, 6.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game on 55-38-85 shooting splits since he returned from an abdominal strain on February 27. Chet Holmgren could end up winning Defensive Player of the Year if the Spurs\u2019 Victor Wembanyama ends up missing the rest of the regular season. Despite opening the season 24-1, the Thunder might well be peaking now.<\/p>\n LA is in solid form too, though it\u2019d be difficult for it to play worse than it did in the first third of the season, when it went just 6-21. Since Garland made his Clippers debut on March 2, LA has gone 14-7, though just 1-2 when the star point guard doesn\u2019t suit up. Still, the team\u2019s other trade deadline acquisition, Bennedict Mathurin, has provided some much-needed athleticism, and Kawhi Leonard has continued to play like an MVP candidate in his own right, averaging 28.5 points per game on 53-40-86 shooting splits since the All-Star break. <\/p>\n Thunder at Clippers pick, best bet<\/p>\n Garland is a huge loss for LA. He\u2019s made a massive impact on the team; with him on the court, the Clippers have poured in 126.9 points per 100 possessions, and they\u2019ve even been 3.2 points per 100 possessions better defensively. With Garland on the floor, LA has actually been a slightly better team than the Thunder, out-scoring opponents by 1.4 more points per 100 possessions, but without him, the Clippers have had a negative net rating. They\u2019ll probably be better than that \u2014 much of Garland\u2019s gaudy on-off figure is a result of his not being part of the team during its 6-21 opening stretch \u2014 but it\u2019s clear that his shooting and playmaking is pivotal.<\/p>\n Stylistically, Oklahoma City is a pretty bad matchup for LA. The Thunder have among the best rim-protection units in the NBA, allowing the seventh-fewest shots within five feet and the lowest percentage on such looks, and the Clippers have attempted the league\u2019s seventh-most shots at the rim since the All-Star break. Additionally, LA isn\u2019t a great rim-protecting team, allowing opponents to convert at the eighth-highest rate since the All-Star break, and Oklahoma City is an above-average driving team. Individually, Isaiah Hartenstein, Holmgren, and Gilgeous-Alexander all rank in the top septile in rim points saved per 100 possessions, so the Clippers could have a tough time driving tonight. <\/p>\n The Thunder\u2019s biggest weakness is their struggle on the glass, but LA isn\u2019t well-suited to take advantage of that. This season, Oklahoma City ranks just 21st in total rebounding percentage, though it has improved somewhat to 14th since the All-Star break while the Clippers have continued to struggle. Both teams have been dominant in transition, ranking in the top half of the league in all four major transition categories. Both have also been relatively disciplined and good at drawing contact on the other end, though LA might have a harder time getting into position to draw fouls without Garland\u2019s gravity.<\/p>\n The Clippers\u2019 slight shooting advantage turns into a disadvantage with Garland absent. Since the All-Star break, they\u2019ve been better than the Thunder at limiting opponents\u2019 wide-open threes, which Garland\u2019s absence won\u2019t impact. Offensively, though, Oklahoma City has been much better at generating open looks, attempting six more per game across the season\u2019s second half, and while LA has the more talented shooters overall, not having Garland (who\u2019s shooting 45.8% from beyond the arc as a Clipper) mitigates that edge. Leonard and John Collins are still excellent, but their shots might be tougher tonight.<\/p>\n Home-court advantage could make a difference, as the Clippers have been 5.3 points per 100 possessions better at the Intuit Dome. Despite the teams\u2019 relatively even strength in rebounding, transition, and shooting, the Thunder\u2019s interior dominance should be sufficient enough to win this game comfortably, especially since LA has no point guard. Oklahoma City has won both of the teams\u2019 previous matchups by at least 19 points.<\/p>\n