Here\u2019s the rundown if you need it.<\/a>) If they don\u2019t, that shows you everything you need to know about them as a team this year. Backing into the Play-In, let alone the Playoffs, isn\u2019t a luxury mid-level teams can afford. Making it \u201cbecause someone has to\u201d is a mini-echo of what they experienced in the mid-2010\u2019s: getting knocked aside by the Golden State Warriors in the postseason nearly every year, not because they were truly the second-best team to the Dynasty but because somebody was going to. Except this is at a lower level and much less significant.<\/p>\nAssuming Portland wins tonight and takes the 8th-place position in the tournament, it\u2019s also important for them to win that first game in the 7-8 matchup, drawing a first-round series against the San Antonio Spurs instead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. The odds of beating the Lottery Darling Spurs are tiny, but at least that\u2019s a series. Getting crushed by the Thunder in a hopeless matchup isn\u2019t really an education, it\u2019s a morale-killer.<\/p>\n
So\u2026IF the Blazers win tonight and IF they advance from the first game of the Play-In, I\u2019d say that experience will be better for them than the miniscule odds of jumping to the Top 4 in the lottery this year. Unless lightning strikes big, they\u2019d only be losing 1-2 places in the actual draft order and they\u2019d be getting practice preparing for\u2014and in a couple cases winning\u2014important games. That\u2019s good stuff.<\/p>\n
If the Blazers lose their way into the tournament or lose a game there, I\u2019d say that taking the lottery pick and going with it would be marginally better. The gap isn\u2019t demonstrable. I wouldn\u2019t be crushed if they advance. I just think it\u2019d be the same up-again, down-again pattern they\u2019ve been showing all season. At this point, who cares? We already know they\u2019re 40-40. They\u2019ve shown all that already. Why do we need to play this out to the bitter end before pronouncing it?<\/p>\n
In other words, Portland has one more chance to buck the trend this year. It starts right now and continues through the end of the Play-In. If they\u2019re going to be something different than confusing and mediocre, this is the last, and only, time to prove it. As long as that chance is open, it\u2019s better for them and the franchise if they take it and succeed. If they don\u2019t succeed, going halfway isn\u2019t going to help anything but the marketing pitch. Just go home and retool for next year.<\/p>\n
A first-round pick owed to the Chicago Bulls complicates matters somewhat. The Blazers are still on the hook for their first non-lottery pick to Chicago, the aftermath of a long-ago trade for Larry Nance, Jr. Basically it looks like this:<\/p>\n
If Portland makes the playoffs this year, their pick goes to Chicago. The cost: they won\u2019t have a first-round rookie this year to further their growth. The benefit: they clear the obligation, uncomplicating further trades and potential pick swaps on the horizon which are far more significant.If Portland misses the playoffs this year, they keep their 2026 first-round pick. The benefit is obvious. The cost is that this Chicago obligation doesn\u2019t go away until 2028. The Blazers have one more year to make the playoffs and dispense of it before the clock strikes zero, leaving them an icky choice between not making the playoffs and losing a potentially-good pick swap with the Bucks in \u201828.<\/p>\n
Right now, though, these trade matters are speculative. The real, tangible task in front of Portland is to win the Clippers game, then as many games after as they can manage, and let everything else take care of itself. If they can\u2019t do that, take the lottery pick, run with it, and let\u2019s see what happens next year.<\/p>\n
What do you all think? Share your opinions in the comments section below!<\/p>\n
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we\u2019ll try to answer as many as possible!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Portland Trail Blazers are about to play one of their most decisive games of the season, facing…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":707686,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3784],"tags":[7,601,37787,38295,6,687,471,3967,1617],"class_list":{"0":"post-707685","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-portland-trail-blazers","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-blazers","10":"tag-blazers-analysis","11":"tag-blazers-mailbags","12":"tag-nba","13":"tag-portland","14":"tag-portland-trail-blazers","15":"tag-portlandtrailblazers","16":"tag-trail-blazers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116382570072726061","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707685","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=707685"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707685\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/707686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=707685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=707685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=707685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}