{"id":711833,"date":"2026-04-16T15:27:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T15:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/711833\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T15:27:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T15:27:30","slug":"the-2026-nba-playoffs-entrance-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/711833\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 NBA Playoffs Entrance Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"

NBA<\/a>NBA<\/a>Let the (real) games begin. Here are our controversial playoff takes, Finals predictions, favorite first-round series, and more.\"\"Getty Images\/Ringer illustration\"\"<\/a>By The Ringer Staff<\/a>April 16, 2:30 pm UTC \u2022 16 min<\/p>\n

If you\u2019ve been patiently waiting for months to watch two opposing NBA teams actually try to win on the same night, well, we\u2019ve got some life-altering news for you: The 2026 NBA playoffs are finally here\u2014and they\u2019re spectacular<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The questions are as refreshing as they are intriguing: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder repeat? Can Jayson Tatum pull off an all-time comeback? Are the Denver Nuggets or San Antonio Spurs lurking in plain sight? Is the East as wide-open as we thought? Can LeBron James and Kevin Durant turn back the clock? And which role player will become a playoff folk hero?<\/p>\n

In honor of the postseason\u2019s arrival, The Ringer paneled its NBA staff to dish their favorite first-round series, Finals picks, and more playoff predictions. Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n

1. What will be the most entertaining first-round series?<\/p>\n

Michael Pina:<\/a> Wolves-Nuggets has it all: history, star power, and high stakes. It\u2019s an actual rivalry: Denver beat Minnesota in 2023, and Minny got revenge the following season. Both teams think that they can win the championship. Both teams know what it takes to level up in the playoffs. Both teams are exceptionally well coached. If the Wolves lose, they will almost definitely break up their core group, which just hasn\u2019t been able to get over the hump. If the Nuggets lose, it\u2019ll be a catastrophic blow to a group that could and should have raised more than one banner by now. Watching Nikola Jokic BBQ Rudy Gobert never gets old. Watching Anthony Edwards do pretty much anything on a basketball court is ecstasy. There\u2019s a ton of interesting strategic stuff to keep an eye on, and on the most basic terms, it\u2019s more fun when two clubs in a series genuinely don\u2019t like each other.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Danny Chau:<\/a> Wolves-Nuggets. Could there be any other answer? The teams are deadlocked at 14-14 in regular-season and playoff games since 2022-23. Denver took the season series by Christmas, but Minnesota has the edge in average margin of victory across the past four campaigns. Jokic, for my money, is still the best in the world, and at full strength, this is the most talented supporting cast he\u2019s ever played with. But the Wolves know how to overcome the monumental challenge that Jokic presents\u2014they did it just a couple of years ago, on the back of some of the most impressive defense<\/a> we\u2019ve seen in the past decade. It\u2019ll be a great series.<\/p>\n

Howard Beck:<\/a> Because I\u2019m a hopeless sentimentalist, I\u2019m going Rockets-Lakers. Give me as many games of LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant as these aging legends can muster over the next two weeks because this might be the last time we see them face off on this stage.<\/p>\n

And this isn\u2019t solely a nostalgia take. Durant, at age 37, is a near lock to make All-NBA. James, even at 41, is still undeniably elite (21st in The Ringer\u2019s Top 100<\/a>). They\u2019ve been dueling for NBA supremacy for nearly two decades, meeting three times in the NBA Finals\u2014with James\u2019s Heat defeating Durant\u2019s Thunder in 2012 and Durant getting his payback in 2017 and 2018, leading the Warriors to consecutive titles against James\u2019s Cavaliers.<\/p>\n

The stakes are lower this time. The gray hairs are more prominent. Neither team is expected to make a Finals run. But we should savor every minute, regardless.<\/p>\n

Tyler Parker:<\/a> Hawks-Knicks. I\u2019m a believer in these new-look Hawks. I have a suite on the Jalen Johnson bandwagon. We have great drinks and apps. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has changed the recipe and elevated his game. Corey Kispert has made plays, Jonathan Kuminga\u2019s been a positive addition, CJ McCollum even more so. They\u2019re fuck-you fearless, and, to varying degrees, they all have something to prove. This Knicks team has small-guard shotmaking\u2014my favorite kind of shotmaking\u2014and it has This Man Is Unstable energy with Josh Hart. Also, this current era of Knicks playoff teams has really connected with the city, and come the postseason, MSG gets punchy. I\u2019m in.<\/p>\n

Isaac Levy-Rubinett:<\/a> Assuming the Charlotte Hornets defeat the loose affiliation of basketball players wearing Orlando Magic jerseys on Friday night, Pistons-Hornets will be the rare 1-vs.-8 series that delivers real entertainment value. These teams already have bad blood, dating back to the February brawl that began with Jalen Duren face smushing Moussa Diabate and ended with Isaiah Stewart bull-rushing the entire Charlotte team. But there’s more to this (potential) series than fight watch. The Hornets have been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference for months, and if Tuesday night’s play-in victory over Miami is any indication, the LaMelo Ball thrill ride only becomes more electrifying in the postseason. The Pistons, meanwhile, are one of the youngest top seeds in recent NBA history, and I’m eager to see how they follow up their dominant regular season against a true test like Charlotte.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Matt Dollinger:<\/a> Rockets-Lakers. This might be my local Mile High bias showing, but I think that the Nuggets are peaking at the right time of the year and will dust the Wolves. Edwards played in just three of Minnesota\u2019s final 14 games. If he can\u2019t regain his shot and his swagger quickly, there\u2019s a chance that Denver could steamroll its recent archnemesis. I\u2019m going Rockets-Lakers for two reasons beyond the LeBron vs. KD nostalgia: (1) LeBron vs. Ime Udoka<\/a> is actually the first round\u2019s spiciest matchup (I\u2019m pretty sure these guys genuinely hate each other)<\/a>. (2) A potential Luka Doncic return (maybe for Game 3?) would take the drama to the next level.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"Getty Images2. Which star has the most at stake this postseason?<\/p>\n

Beck: My answer might land somewhere between surprising and insane\u2014depending on your NBA political leanings\u2014but here it is: Jokic. (Please stop yelling, Pina.) Let me explain.<\/p>\n

Yes, Jokic has a championship, a Finals MVP, and three regular-season MVPs. Yes, his legacy is firmly cemented. But if he wants to win another title, to secure his place among the greatest of all-time greats, and, frankly, to silence the #CountTheRingzzz crowd, the time is now.<\/p>\n

Jamal Murray is playing at his absolute peak, but his career arc has been choppy. Aaron Gordon is always one hamstring tweak away from missing a key game or a month of games.<\/p>\n

The defending champion Thunder are younger and deeper than the Nuggets, with far more draft capital. The Spurs are younger and deeper than the Nuggets, with far more draft capital. Jokic needs another ring now because the road to the Finals is only going to get harder in the years to come.<\/p>\n

(All that said, the answer is actually James Harden.)<\/p>\n

Chau: De\u2019Aaron Fox. Usually, proof of a player\u2019s necessity is baked into a max extension like the four-year, $229 million deal Fox signed last summer. But the Spurs are on a unique trajectory and timeline and possess a rare wealth of backcourt talent. Fox has only ever played in one playoff series in his eight seasons in the league, back in 2023 against the Golden State Warriors. He was a usage monster in that seven-game series, and there may come a time at some point in these playoffs when the Spurs will need the one-time Clutch Player of the Year to take them home. Whether Fox can assert himself as the undisputed second-best player on a championship contender in these best-of-seven series will tell us everything we need to know about his place in the Spurs\u2019 present and future.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dollinger: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA is on an all-time run right now. He\u2019s won a title, MVP, and Finals MVP in the past 10 months, and he has a great chance to win all three again this spring. That\u2019s the type of generational dominance that even the biggest critics of his foul baiting will have to give it up for. The six players who have won back-to-back Finals MVP are all-time unimpeachable stars: MJ, LeBron, Shaq, Kobe, Hakeem, and Durant. If Shai joins that company, I won\u2019t care how he got there.<\/p>\n

Parker: Karl-Anthony Towns? Durant? Sandro Mamukelashvili? Eh, let\u2019s go with Durant. The Rockets have been reeling for a while now, but KD has been his usual consistent self. With the Lakers down Doncic and Austin Reaves, Durant has stumbled into a nice little situation that makes getting to the second round plausible. Win a few against the Thunder, and the infighting will be far in the rearview.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pina: Donovan Mitchell has never missed the playoffs and is typically very good once he gets there. In eight straight postseasons, he scored an average of 28.3 points per game, ninth highest in NBA history<\/a> Unfortunately, he has very little to show for it. Mitchell has never advanced past the second round and, on several occasions, has watched his team fall early on even though it\u2019d been the favorite to win the series. He\u2019s now 29 years old, a first-team All-NBA candidate on the deepest, most complementary (and expensive) team of his career, and staring down what appears to be a relatively frictionles path to the conference finals. Set aside Harden\u2019s postseason malfunctions, Jarrett Allen\u2019s iffy availability, and Evan Mobley\u2019s aggression level. If Mitchell can\u2019t lead Cleveland to Round 3, the ramifications will spread beyond disappointment. An early exit will spark dramatic change.<\/p>\n

Levy-Rubinett: Jalen Brunson is already a deity in New York\u2014not even a disappointing playoffs outcome could change that. But you know what an early exit would change? The composition of the 2026-27 New York Knicks. New York made the East finals last season, then fired its coach and fortified its roster. Team owner James Dolan is on the record saying that the Knicks’ expectations this season are title or bust. And while they have a tough first-round matchup against the scorching Atlanta Hawks, zoom out and this year actually presents a real opportunity; the Celtics are still reintegrating Jayson Tatum, the Pistons are unproven, and the Cavs have zero track record of meeting the playoff moment. So back to Brunson. If the team flames out this postseason, the days of Brunson as an undisputed no. 1 option and centerpiece in New York might be over. That’s not to say that he is on the chopping block himself, but the feel-good era of Knicks basketball he has spearheaded for the past four seasons is. If the playoffs don’t go well, New York’s front office will do whatever it can to land Giannis (or some other meaningful upgrade), and pretty much every Knick other than Brunson will come under major scrutiny. This year is Brunson’s best, and potentially last, shot to lead this team to the Finals and cement his status as one of the best Knicks of all time.<\/p>\n

\"\"Adam Hagy\/NBAE via Getty Images3. What’s one playoff take that you believe but most would disagree with?<\/p>\n

Chau: Towns will have the postseason of his life, and it starts against Atlanta. The Hawks have a cadre of perimeter defenders built to make Brunson\u2019s life difficult but are far less equipped to handle Towns\u2019s specific package of skills. In his seven games against the Hawks as a member of the Knicks, KAT has averaged 28 points, taking advantage of Atlanta\u2019s lack of frontcourt size and depth. He\u2019ll have as many scoring opportunities as he can handle, and his impending matchup against Onyeka Okongwu could be a confidence boost after his topsy-turvy regular season. On paper, this is exactly what the doctor ordered. He just needs to take advantage of this window. This postseason run could very well determine KAT\u2019s future in New York.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Parker: Ayo Dosunmu should close for the Wolves. Apologies if that\u2019s a little milquetoast for you. If so, then put me down for a Vit Krejci podium game in the first round. And if that one doesn\u2019t work, and it needs to be especially wild: If a defense forces a five-second violation in the final two minutes of a game, they should get one free throw and the ball.<\/p>\n

Beck: That we should go back to the best-of-five first round, which the NBA abandoned in 2003 to create a consistent format make more money. A shorter series means more drama\u2014and yes, more volatility, because it increases the potential for an upset. Critics of the shorter series hate that volatility because it means that a top seed could be ousted after spending all season \u201cearning\u201d its place. But isn\u2019t that the beauty\u2014even the point\u2014of the playoffs? The suspense? The possibility that anything could happen? Also, frankly, there are too many games in the first round. We shouldn\u2019t need a best-of-seven to decide the 1-8 and 2-7 matchups. Now, if you\u2019ll excuse me, I have some clouds to berate.<\/p>\n

Levy-Rubinett: The play-in rules. This year, the low seeds have actually highlighted how talented the league is. Maybe it was just the absence of the Chicago Bulls, but the level of play this year has felt less sad than usual. We’ve already gotten four great basketball games and several indelible moments\u2014the ideal amuse-bouche for what should be an epic postseason.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pina: The Hawks will beat the Knicks. I don\u2019t even think that this take is particularly hot. The Hawks are very good and match up well against New York. In the past 60 days, Atlanta has ranked second in defensive rating and seventh in offensive rating. For the season, its starting lineup\u2019s net rating is plus-20.3. Unlike New York, this is a team that will really benefit from the rotational belt-tightening that happens in the playoffs. It\u2019s a golden opportunity for Johnson to stake his claim as one of the NBA\u2019s brightest young stars, and Dyson Daniels and Alexander-Walker are set to make Brunson\u2019s life a living hell for two weeks. Speaking of, who is Brunson guarding in this series? There\u2019s no place for him to hide.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dollinger: We can\u2019t have NBA players traded during the Finals. I\u2019m still disgusted that NBA fans had to process a Durant trade<\/a> just hours before Game 7 of the NBA Finals last year. Look, I love a good ol\u2019-fashioned trade as much as the next sicko, but the NBA\u2019s push to be 24\/7\/365 hasn\u2019t done any favors for the league. Set stricter boundaries, and your calendar will click into place. If KD had changed teams the first week of July (remember the Hamptons house!?)<\/a>, we could have savored and honored it properly.<\/p>\n

\"\"Matthew J. Lee\/The Boston Globe via Getty Images4. What role player will become a playoff hero this spring?<\/p>\n

Beck: Jose Alvarado. I can\u2019t tell you how many minutes he\u2019ll play in his first Knicks postseason, or how many shots he\u2019ll take, or what his defensive assignments will be. I can\u2019t say for sure what he\u2019ll do to become an instant Garden legend\u2014a timely steal, a key 3-pointer, a near brawl with someone twice his size, a diving, beer-spilling save into the front row\u2014only that it\u2019s destined to happen.<\/p>\n

Pina: Cam Johnson finished the regular season on fire. In the 17 games since he returned from an ankle injury\u2014and openly acknowledged his on-court struggles<\/a>\u2014Johnson has made 65.7 percent of his 2-point shots and 47.3 percent of his 3s. In other words, down the stretch of his frustrating first season in Denver, the 30-year-old marksman looked even better than the Nuggets could\u2019ve ever hoped for when they acquired him. It\u2019s more than knocking down catch-and-shoot attempts and his lightning-quick release, though. Johnson\u2019s defensive anticipation has been excellent, and his aggressiveness off the bounce adds a completely different dimension to an offensive system that\u2019s already unstoppable without it. (Most of the seven assists he logged in a recent win over the Blazers came from kick-outs from the paint\u2014including the game-tying dime to Aaron Gordon, which was the result of a well-timed cut by Johnson that collapsed Portland\u2019s defense.) If he sustains this throughout a lengthy playoff run, Denver might need to build the man a statue.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Levy-Rubinett: Julian Champagnie has quietly become one of the most dependable two-way wings in the entire NBA. He hits 3s, gobbles rebounds, plays solid defense, and keeps the ball moving; it’s not a coincidence that his move to the starting lineup around the top of the year coincided with the Spurs really hitting their stride. There are a few Spurs who are getting ready to make their playoff debuts, and Champagnie is certainly not the one NBA fans are holding their breath about. But he’s absolutely essential to their team, and the wider NBA-watching world is about to find out why.<\/p>\n

Dollinger: I could name seven different players on the Thunder and they would all feel right, but I\u2019m going with Duncan Robinson. The Pistons are the top seed in the East, but they\u2019re near the bottom in playoff experience. Robinson was a key cog for two Heat teams that made the Finals, and he might be called on in some big moments. Detroit will need him to stretch the floor, as opponents will likely dare someone besides Cade Cunningham to beat them. The good news? When Robinson has it going, the Pistons win. Detroit went 22-4<\/a> this season when he hit at least four 3-pointers.<\/p>\n

Parker: Baylor Scheierman. He lit the Magic on fire in the Celtics\u2019 final game of the regular season, and it really wasn\u2019t even all that surprising. He\u2019s a creative, herky-jerky shotmaker who can take advantage when his teammates are getting all of the defense\u2019s attention. Scheierman will have opportunities to make massive shots, and he seems loose and rowdy enough to connect with people in big moments.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chau: I\u2019m thinking the same as Tyler. I\u2019m fully expecting Scheierman to have a game in which he goes, like, 5-for-6 from 3 and earns a few Tommy Points busting his ass on defense. The Celtics seem to have uncovered the next Joe Ingles, and he\u2019s got a mullet this time around.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"Getty Images5. What playoff story line are you most invested in?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Parker: Do Durant and the Rockets actually hate each other? If things start to go south, do they have enough chemistry to get through a rough patch and not let it show? Or will the microscope of the playoffs take too great of a toll on a team whose groove has eluded it? The drama is always ratcheted up in the postseason.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dollinger: Is the Victor Wembanyama takeover here? Or are we a year too early? It might feel a little premature given the dominance of some of the other titans around the league, but Tim Duncan was 23 when he won his first title with the Spurs, too. As great as Jokic and SGA are, it\u2019s undeniable that the NBA\u2019s most formidable two-way force resides in San Antonio. If he slays his two biggest foes\u2014Denver and Oklahoma City\u2014on the way to the Finals, it would send shivers down the NBA\u2019s spine.<\/p>\n

Pina: I\u2019m interested in seeing how physical the referees will allow the action to be. The change was dramatic last season<\/a>, as anyone who watched the Magic brawl with the Celtics can attest. If the trend continues, the series I\u2019m most looking forward to watching is Blazers-Spurs, where Portland\u2019s physically imposing defense may eventually resort to beating the crap out of Wembanyama. How will Wemby respond, in his very first taste of playoff basketball? The series should be a walkover, but Portland\u2019s size and muscle could make it more competitive than most people expect.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chau: Detroit\u2019s been beating the shit out of teams\u2014complimentary!\u2014on defense all season. The Pistons\u2019 lack of quality shooting understandably hampers their case as the favorites out East, but I\u2019m hoping that their Bad Boys physicality continues to be Detroit\u2019s great equalizer. We may live in the future, but good old-fashioned rock fights can still build out the tension and cinema of a best-of-seven series.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Levy-Rubinett: Everything to do with Wembanyama, from the most granular (how will playoff physicality affect his offense?) to the biggest picture (could he snag the belt as best player in the world?). Wemby has ascended in warp speed. He picks things up on the fly, to the point that he’s looked like a superhero exploring and harnessing the full extent of his powers over his first three seasons. Down the stretch, Wembanyama hit yet another level, learning how to make his presence felt on literally every possession on both ends of the floor. I can’t wait to see how that translates to the postseason pressure cooker and to figure out what this Alien is already capable of.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Beck: The Philadelphia 76ers, when healthy, are the biggest threat to \u2026 yeah, you know what, never mind.<\/p>\n

\"\"Getty Images6. What\u2019s your Finals prediction?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Beck: Nuggets over Celtics, a minor edit from my preseason prediction (Nuggets over Cavs), but stemming from the same premise: It\u2019s harder than ever to repeat, so I\u2019m taking the field over the Thunder. And I\u2019m taking the best player in that field to lead the upset. The East has been hard to gauge all season. But among the presumed contenders, the Celtics\u2014with a healthy Tatum and a leveled-up Jaylen Brown\u2014have the best superstar duo, the most firepower, and the most experience.<\/p>\n

Pina: Nuggets over Celtics. In seven games. Give it to us.<\/p>\n

Parker: My preseason pick was Thunder over Knicks. I\u2019m going to change that up slightly and say Thunder over Celtics in seven. Tatum\u2019s level of play after his injury has been revelatory, and Boston is wall-to-wall with shooters and guys who play hard, smart defense. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me at all to see the Spurs or the Nugs come out of the West, but the Thunder are the defending champs and the conference still runs through them.<\/p>\n

Dollinger: Celtics over Thunder. I wanted to pick this before the season, but I chickened out and picked<\/a> Joe Mazzulla to win Coach of the Year instead. I\u2019m as anti-Boston as you are legally allowed to be at The Ringer, but this always felt like a \u201cNo One Believes in Us Even Though We\u2019re Sort of the Best Team\u201d season. They spent the season redefining their depth and underdog identity. If Tatum pulls off this level of a comeback, we\u2019ll never hear the end of it. It\u2019s happening.<\/p>\n

Levy-Rubinett: Nuggets over Pistons. I think that Denver vs. OKC in the Western Conference finals will double as the most important and most riveting series of the playoffs and that the Nugs will get revenge after their seven-game defeat last year. The Pistons are young and somewhat offensively challenged, but they’re tough as hell and they just won 60 games\u2014at a certain point, you have to believe in the r\u00e9sum\u00e9. That said, I’m not sure that two Durens busting out of a trench coat would have much of a chance of stopping Jokic, who will win his second Finals MVP and vault into extremely rarefied historical air.<\/p>\n

Chau: Nuggets over Celtics. After a run of inopportune injuries to key supporting players, perhaps health luck might finally swing Denver\u2019s way in the postseason. If so, it has the horses to challenge every team in the league. Consider this a late delivery of the Finals series that was promised in 2023 and 2024 but that never arrived.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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