{"id":711873,"date":"2026-04-16T16:39:29","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T16:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/711873\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T16:39:29","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T16:39:29","slug":"timberwolves-vs-nuggets-who-wins-heavyweight-clash-series-keys-schedule-and-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/711873\/","title":{"rendered":"Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Who wins heavyweight clash? Series keys, schedule and prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Western Conference\u2019s third-seeded Denver Nuggets will take on the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs<\/a>. It\u2019s the third time these teams have squared off in the last four postseasons \u2014 the kind of contempt-breeding familiarity that plans the seeds of one of those \u2026 what\u2019s the word?<\/p>\n

Right: \u201crivalry<\/a>.\u201d Thanks, Ant.<\/p>\n

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The two franchises last faced off in the postseason in the 2024 conference semifinals \u2014 an epic series that saw the Wolves stun the hoops-watching world by winning the first two games on the road, the Nuggets respond in kind with three straight wins, Minnesota get level with a whopping 45-point win in Game 6, Denver take a 20-point lead in the second half of Game 7 \u2026 and the Wolves outscore the defending NBA champs 60-32 over the final 22 minutes to win a seven-game classic.<\/p>\n

Ten of the 16 players who saw the floor in that Game 7<\/a> are still around for this series. Let\u2019s all cross our fingers and hope that they\u2019ll give us a fitting encore.<\/p>\n

What we know about the Nuggets<\/a><\/p>\n

They once again have the best offense in the NBA, due in large part to continuing to employ this friggin\u2019 guy:<\/p>\n

Nikola Joki\u0107<\/a> continued to etch his name in the history books this season, joining former teammate Russell Westbrook<\/a> as the only players to average a triple-double in multiple seasons and becoming the first player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounds and assists in the same season. No player in the NBA creates more points per game for his team, according to Databallr<\/a>\u2019s tracking; with Joki\u0107 on the floor, the Nuggets scored more than 126 points per 100 possessions<\/a> \u2014 a historically elite level of offensive production.<\/p>\n

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When Joki\u0107 and Jamal Murray<\/a>, an All-NBA candidate after the best regular season of his career, were both in the lineup, the Nuggets torched opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions<\/a>. When they lined up alongside perfect-fit power forward Aaron Gordon<\/a>, the Nuggets won 77% of their games \u2014 a 63-win pace.<\/p>\n

The problem: That only happened 26 times<\/a> this season, as Gordon missed more than half the campaign with persistent hamstring issues<\/a>, and Joki\u0107 missed a prolonged stretch for the first time in his career after hyperextending his left knee<\/a>. They weren\u2019t the only Nuggets to spend a significant chunk of the season in street clothes, either; wings Christian Braun<\/a>, Cameron Johnson<\/a> and Peyton Watson<\/a> missed a combined 94 games, too.<\/p>\n

While spending the year playing Whac-a-Mole with his injury report, head coach David Adelman struggled to find lineups consistently able to get stops. The Nuggets fell from fifth in defensive efficiency through the first month of the season<\/a> all the way down to 21st by season\u2019s end<\/a> \u2014 the same spot they finished last season<\/a>, and tied for the worst finish since Joki\u0107\u2019s first season as a full-time starter.<\/p>\n

The Denver<\/a> defense trended up a bit late, flirting with a league-average mark over the final 20 or so games of the season\u00a0\u2014 a stretch that dovetailed with the return of Gordon \u2014 while continuing to get buckets at league-best levels. The result: a season-ending 12-game winning streak that, combined with the Lakers<\/a> stumbling amid late-season injuries to Luka Don\u010di\u0107<\/a> and Austin Reaves<\/a>, helped propel Denver into the No. 3 seed.<\/p>\n

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The good news: That puts the Nuggets on the other side of the Western bracket from the defending champion Thunder, who eliminated them in Round 2 last spring. The bad news: It puts them in line for a second-round showdown with Victor Wembanyama<\/a> and the Spurs \u2026 if, that is, they can get past their old friends from the Twin Cities.<\/p>\n

The fundamentals of what\u2019s gotten Minnesota<\/a> to consecutive Western Conference finals remain largely intact, save for the loss in free agency of Nickeil Alexander-Walker<\/a> \u2026 who, we\u2019ll grant, it\u2019d be real nice to have right about now. (Though his ostensible replacement, trade-deadline addition Ayo Dosunmu<\/a>, has been pretty excellent since arriving in February.)<\/p>\n

The Wolves feature a top-tier defense, with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert<\/a> on the back line and All-Defensive wing Jaden McDaniels<\/a> at the point of attack. They\u2019ve got a high-end big-man rotation (Gobert, three-time All-Star Julius Randle<\/a>, Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid<\/a>) and two-way perimeter players (McDaniels, Dosunmu, Anthony Edwards<\/a>, Donte DiVincenzo<\/a>) that head coach Chris Finch can trust in tough matchups. And they\u2019ve got a good-enough offense that can look great on the right night, with Edwards lighting the fireworks.<\/p>\n

For the sixth straight season since the Wolves drafted him first overall, Edwards increased both his year-over-year scoring volume and efficiency, finishing third in the NBA in scoring behind only Don\u010di\u0107 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/a>, and becoming one of just 10 guards ever<\/a> to average at least 28 points per game on a true shooting percentage (which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy) higher than 60%. In Edwards\u2019 minutes, the Wolves scored<\/a> like a near-top-five<\/a> unit; it was an individual campaign fit for MVP and All-NBA consideration \u2026 or, it would have been, had right knee inflammation<\/a> not sidelined Edwards for 11 of the Wolves\u2019 final 14 games, putting him at 61 for the season and rendering him ineligible for year-end awards<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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But while the key components of what\u2019s been one of the West\u2019s best teams remained the same, the Wolves didn\u2019t always look like one of the league\u2019s elite.<\/p>\n

They dipped from eighth in offensive efficiency last season to 14th. They stayed sixth in defensive efficiency, but gave up about an additional point and a half per 100 possessions. They fouled more and their defensive rebounding slipped. They took fewer 3s and gave up more looks at the rim. They went 23-25 against opponents above .500, the worst mark of any of the West\u2019s top-six teams<\/a>, and finished the season playing .500 ball with a bottom-10 point differential over the final 20 games<\/a> (though injuries to Edwards and McDaniels played a role in that).<\/p>\n

Close observers have noted that the Wolves often looked complacent<\/a> or bored<\/a> this season: like a collective that was just waiting for the real games to start.<\/p>\n

\u201cYeah, it felt like that at times \u2014 like we was just trying to get through the season to try to get to the playoffs,\u201d Edwards said<\/a> this week. \u201cBut we here now, and all the other excuses are out the window. So it\u2019s time.\u201d<\/p>\n

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All they\u2019ve got to do now is find the proverbial switch and flip it against a three-time MVP. No pressure.<\/p>\n

Head-to-head<\/p>\n

Denver won the season series, 3-1. The Nuggets kicked things off with a 127-114 victory<\/a> in the opening week of the season, behind the first of Murray\u2019s five 40-point games<\/a> of the campaign. They notched another double-digit victory less than three weeks later behind a balanced effort, with four starters scoring at least 20 points, led by a 27-12-11 triple-double from Joki\u0107<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In one of the games of the year, Denver won a Christmas night classic that saw:<\/p>\n

The Wolves erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit;<\/p>\n

Edwards drill a tough game-tying triple with 1.1 seconds remaining in regulation to send the game to overtime;<\/p>\n

Minnesota start OT on fire, taking a nine-point lead with 2:58 to go in the extra session;<\/p>\n

Edwards get two technical fouls, and an automatic ejection, with 20.5 seconds after arguing with the officials<\/a> over what he felt were some questionable calls in Denver\u2019s favor down the stretch; and<\/p>\n

The Nuggets finish off a 142-138<\/a> barnburner.<\/p>\n

The Wolves got their lick back in March, scoring a 117-108 win<\/a> behind 20-point outings from Edwards and McDaniels, five 3s from DiVincenzo, and an 18-point burst off the bench from Bones Hyland<\/a> \u2014 a former Denver draft pick who wound up outside the Nuggets\u2019 rotation looking in, spent a couple of years on the fringes with the Clippers<\/a>, and earned his way into the mix in Minnesota as a spark plug initiator in the second unit.<\/p>\n

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The standard \u201cyour mileage may vary\u201d availability caveats apply. Edwards missed the first meeting, and while the Wolves were mostly healthy in the other three, only the final one \u2014 the March win \u2014 came after the trade for Dosunmu, who\u2019s now a critical piece of their rotation. The Nuggets, meanwhile, were without at least one of their primary perimeter pieces \u2014 Gordon, Braun, Johnson, Watson and two-way rookie Spencer Jones<\/a> \u2014 in three of the final four contests.<\/p>\n

The one thing that\u2019s been pretty consistent, though? The Nuggets have, per usual, won Joki\u0107\u2019s minutes handily, outscoring Minnesota by more than 10 points per 100 possessions<\/a> across the four games. Considering Joki\u0107 has averaged 39.9 minutes per game over the last three postseasons<\/a>, the Wolves need to find some way of narrowing that gap if they want to avoid their role in these playoffs being reduced to a mere cameo.<\/p>\n

Matchup to watch<\/p>\n

The Wolves\u2019 attempts to slow down Joki\u0107<\/p>\n

Minnesota essentially developed the closest thing to a blueprint to dealing with Joki\u0107 in the 2023 playoffs, stationing jumbo power forward Karl-Anthony Towns<\/a> on Joki\u0107 with Gobert cross-matched onto Gordon to lurk as a perpetual second line of defense. It didn\u2019t pay major dividends in that series, which Denver finished off in five games en route to the NBA championship; it did give the Wolves a fighting chance the following postseason, though, helping limit Joki\u0107 to just 45% shooting \u2014 17% from 3-point range \u2014 with 17 turnovers against 26 assists in Minnesota\u2019s four wins<\/a> in that second-round slugfest.<\/p>\n

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With Towns now in New York, though, the initial assignment goes to Randle \u2014 several inches shorter, with a shorter wingspan \u2014 and the overall experience hasn\u2019t gone so hot. Joki\u0107 averaged 35.8 points per game against the Wolves<\/a> this season, shooting a combined 24-for-34 (70.5%) from the field against starter Randle<\/a> and reserve Reid<\/a>, with a 19-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio and five shooting fouls drawn, according to NBA.com\u2019s matchup data.<\/p>\n

Which is to say: It\u2019s a matchup that leaves the Wolves looking for a little help.<\/p>\n

\u201cProbably gotta call God and talk to him for a little bit,\u201d Randle said<\/a> Wednesday. \u201cAsk him for a few favors.\u201d<\/p>\n

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While awaiting divine intervention, Minnesota will have to make do with more terrestrial reinforcements. Back in March, Finch primarily played it straight, having Gobert take primary responsibility for Joki\u0107<\/a> \u2014 a matchup with which Joki\u0107 has been very (sometimes comedically<\/a>) comfortable over the years, but in which the Wolves were able to keep Joki\u0107 in check just enough to come away with their lone win of the season over Denver.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m comfortable doing whatever the team needs me to do,\u201d Gobert told reporters this week<\/a>. \u201cAnd when I\u2019m off him, I\u2019m still on him. It\u2019s really about trying to slow him down as much as we can, but we try to stop the Denver Nuggets as a team. They\u2019re a very smart team. They make a lot of adjustments, and so we have to be able to make adjustments, too.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finch has turned over just about every rock he can in search of those adjustments, at one point or another. McDaniels and Edwards have picked up Joki\u0107 late in games, when the Wolves want to be able to switch the Joki\u0107-Murray two-man action. Reserve forward Kyle Anderson<\/a>, now back in Minnesota after a trade from Utah and a buyout in Memphis<\/a>, pulled shifts on him in the 2023 and 2024 playoffs. Against a Nuggets team that has more shooting than previous iterations \u2014 Murray, Johnson, Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr.<\/a> all shot better than 40% from deep this season, and Gordon has evolved into a consistent knockdown shooter you can\u2019t just comfortably sag off of in the cross-match \u2014 Finch may well have to turn over more rocks over the next couple of weeks for the Wolves to have any hopes of slowing perhaps the sport\u2019s toughest cover.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou know, you can get cute, you can do a lot of different things,\u201d Finch told reporters<\/a>. \u201cBut at the end of the day, it comes down to your ability to be physical and fight [Joki\u0107], and do it every time down, because you\u2019re not going to win all of them.\u201d<\/p>\n

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If the Wolves can\u2019t win enough of them, though, this series could have a very different ending than the one they won in 2024.<\/p>\n

Key question<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s going to be healthiest on the wings?<\/p>\n

Edwards missed most of the final month of the season with patellofemoral pain syndrome in his right knee<\/a>, and McDaniels missed two weeks with tendinopathy and a bone bruise<\/a> in his left knee. They\u2019ve both returned, and both looked more or less like themselves in their most recent action, with Edwards scoring 22 points in 27 minutes in a win over the Rockets, while McDaniels added 16 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocked shots. Persistent knee injuries can be tricky, though \u2014 and the prospect of both Minnesota\u2019s No. 1 offensive option and its top option to defend Murray at the point of attack moving on wobbly wheels is enough to give observers some pause.<\/p>\n

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For Denver, an awful lot rests on Gordon\u2019s legs. A left hamstring strain compromised him for the conclusion of Denver\u2019s second-round loss to Oklahoma City<\/a> last spring; right hamstring strains cost him more than half of this season. He\u2019s been back in the fold since early March, averaging<\/a> 13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 27.8 minutes per game down the stretch as he ramps up.<\/p>\n

The best version of the Nuggets features Gordon bodying up the likes of Randle and Reid, stretching the floor for Joki\u0107, fighting for deep seals in the post against smaller defenders on switches and cross-matches, attacking the offensive glass against a Minnesota team that ranked just 19th in defensive rebounding rate<\/a>, and generally looking like the picture-perfect missing piece<\/a> that helped deliver Denver the 2023 NBA title. When he\u2019s running on all cylinders, the Nuggets can beat anybody. When he\u2019s not \u2014 and especially with Watson and Jones, Denver\u2019s two other top big-wing defenders, also working their way back from injuries<\/a> \u2014 they can get got.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Nuggets in six<\/p>\n

I can buy that this Wolves team \u2014 with Edwards and McDaniels back, with all its principals rested, with its surfeit of experience with and confidence in this specific matchup \u2014 can reach another level under the bright lights of the postseason. I just have an easier time buying that the same\u2019s true of a version of the Nuggets that has Joki\u0107 and Murray playing as well as they ever have (which is saying something) and has Gordon healthy and back in the mix.<\/p>\n

Series odds<\/p>\n

(Via BetMGM<\/a>)<\/p>\n

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Denver Nuggets (-350)<\/p>\n

Minnesota Timberwolves (+275)<\/p>\n

Series schedule (all times Eastern)<\/p>\n

Game 1: Sat., April 18, at Denver (3:30 p.m., Prime Video)<\/p>\n

Game 2: Mon., April 20, at Denver (10:30 p.m., NBC\/Peacock)<\/p>\n

Game 3: Thu., April 23, at Minnesota (9:30 p.m., Prime Video)<\/p>\n

Game 4: Sat., April 25, at Minnesota (8:30 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n

*Game 5: Mon., April 27, at Denver (TBD)<\/p>\n

*Game 6: Thu., April 30, at Minnesota (TBD)<\/p>\n

*Game 7: Sat., May 2, at Denver (TBD)<\/p>\n

*if necessary<\/p>\n

More series previews<\/p>\n

East: Hawks-Knicks<\/a> \u2022 Raptors-Cavaliers<\/a><\/p>\n

West: Wolves-Nuggets \u2022 Rockets-Lakers<\/a><\/p>\n