East first round<\/p>\n
(1) Detroit vs. (8) Charlotte\/Orlando<\/p>\n
Charlotte is good enough to win a series against a team of Detroit\u2019s caliber. I just don\u2019t know if the Hornets are built to beat a team of Detroit\u2019s style. The Pistons won all three regular-season meetings, and only one of them was close. You can see why when you line up the teams.<\/p>\n
Charlotte doesn\u2019t have a great matchup for Cade Cunningham, and its lack of size is a problem on the defensive glass against the Pistons\u2019 mashers. The Pistons also have enough quality defenders to handle Charlotte\u2019s spaced-out, shooting-heavy lineup without breaking down. That\u2019s when the starters are on the floor; once the benches come in, the Pistons have a huge advantage. I\u2019m hoping the Hornets advance anyway, because these two teams do not like each other<\/a>.<\/p>\n As for Orlando \u2026 sigh. The Magic have been a crushing disappointment this season, but if they survive Charlotte, they have a chance to make things interesting. The Magic split their four meetings with Detroit, even winning in Detroit in November despite shooting 5 of 30 from 3, and their size and theoretical upside of the starting group give them a puncher\u2019s chance. Orlando is finally at full strength with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs back, and if it can keep its top eight players on the floor, it can have solid lineups.<\/p>\n While I think Detroit is getting short shrift and people have been slow to realize just how good this team is, I also think the Pistons are going to get a real series in Round 1. Pick: Pistons in 6 against either<\/p>\n (2) Boston vs. (7) Philadelphia (Preview<\/a>)<\/p>\n Philly played three tough games against Boston in the opening weeks of the season and won two of them, even with Joel Embiid only playing a major role in one of the three. In the four meetings this season, Philadelphia has been able to slow Boston\u2019s offense enough to give itself a chance, despite some fairly ugly shooting numbers on the Sixers side. The return of Paul George also adds another plus wing defender to help deal with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.<\/p>\n That said, without Embiid and with Tatum added to the Boston side, the talent disparity is real. This would be a favorable matchup for Philly if Embiid were playing and Tatum were still convalescing, but given the opposite scenario, it feels like a long slog of Philly guards trying to score against loaded-up defenses. Pick: Boston in 5<\/p>\n \n The Hawks have struggled to defend Karl-Anthony Towns in the past. (Lucas Boland \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n (3) New York vs. (6) Atlanta (Preview<\/a>)<\/p>\n The Hawks took off once they added CJ McCollum at midseason, posting a ridiculous plus-20.3 net rating with their new starting five. Even allowing for some less-than-daunting opposition on their late-season schedule, that\u2019s exclamation-point worthy. What\u2019s perhaps more sustainable is that, even over the full season, the quartet with their other four starters together (Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu) was plus-7.0 per 100 possessions.<\/p>\n That stands in stark contrast to the underwhelming plus-2.8 mark posted by the Knicks\u2019 core four of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. The Knicks have bigger names, but the Hawks\u2019 main guys have been better.<\/p>\n So why am I picking New York to prevail? Two reasons: the bench and rebounding. New York\u2019s bench units have been a massive advantage all season, with Mitchell Robinson, Miles McBride, Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet all making major contributions. Meanwhile, Robinson and Towns dominate the boards, while the Hawks\u2019 non-Okongwu units have been decimated on the glass.<\/p>\n Atlanta\u2019s second group, meanwhile, is a work in progress at best. Jonathan Kuminga has shown flashes of reliable scoring in the non-Johnson minutes, but otherwise, things look rough. Gabe Vincent is getting double-digit minutes with a job description of \u201cJust don\u2019t doom us,\u201d and there is no backup center to speak of until Jock Landale returns from a late-season ankle sprain. Zaccharie Risacher and Corey Kispert are also exchanging DNPs depending on who looked worse in the previous game.<\/p>\n Things are so desperate that I wonder if the Hawks might unearth Buddy Hield, who was mysteriously placed in witness protection upon arriving from Golden State at the trade deadline but made seven 3s and scored 31 points in 21 minutes in the season finale in Miami when he finally got a chance to play.<\/p>\n The last meeting between these teams was a 108-105 Knicks win in Atlanta in early April that had playoff vibes. The Knicks\u2019 starters won their minutes, but the Hawks won the rebound battle, even with Robinson grabbing 12 in 19 minutes.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, I think this is a decent matchup for New York. The Hawks have always struggled to deal with Towns, who has a major size edge on Okongwu, and Anunoby is a tremendous foil for Johnson, Atlanta\u2019s do-everything star. The Knicks will survive and advance. Pick: Knicks in 6<\/p>\n (4) Cleveland vs. (5) Toronto (Preview<\/a>)<\/p>\n The Cavaliers are a confounding team: immensely talented on paper yet underachieving through most of the season. Subtract all the games against tankers, and Cleveland looked shaky even after acquiring James Harden at the trade deadline and returning Max Strus\u2019 Headband from injury. While the starting five Cleveland rolls out will be the best it\u2019s had all season, much of the same can be said for Toronto, the team that won all three regular-season meetings.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the thing: Cleveland\u2019s lineup is pretty top-heavy, with starter-laden units still having at or near double-digit net rating advantages all season. In contrast, Toronto\u2019s starting group just wasn\u2019t all that good. The Scottie Barnes-Immanuel Quickley-Brandon Ingram trio got 1,203 minutes together, and their net rating was a measly plus-3.9. The Raptors\u2019 biggest advantage was Jamal Shead and Sandro Mamukelashvili playing against second units, but that doesn\u2019t scale to a playoff game where the bench guys get fewer minutes.<\/p>\n In contrast, the Cavs got a lot of negative minutes from players who either aren\u2019t on the team anymore or will play microscopic roles in this series, although their compulsion to make sure Dennis Schr\u00f6der gets 20 minutes a night has me a bit concerned.<\/p>\n Historically, No. 5 seeds win nearly half the time in the first round, and underdogs with a regular-season series advantage also fare much better. I definitely consider this one \u201clive\u201d as far as upset possibilities, but the talent disparity is just too large. Pick: Cavs in 6<\/p>\n West first round<\/p>\n (1) Thunder vs. (8) Warriors\/Suns<\/p>\n Oklahoma City played Phoenix five times in the regular season, thanks to the NBA Cup, and lost to the Suns twice; however, one of those was the Suns obliterating Payton Sandfort and Brooks Barnhizer in a meaningless 82nd game.<\/p>\n Phoenix is an interesting matchup because the Suns have multiple defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander \u2014 fellow Canadian Dillon Brooks likely gets the first shot before Ryan Dunn and Jordan Goodwin take turns \u2014 and because Phoenix\u2019s 3-point shooting is a nice antidote against a Thunder team that surrenders 3s to force turnovers. Phoenix should also be close to full strength by Sunday, with Grayson Allen (who had one of the league\u2019s most underrated seasons) likely returning from a hamstring injury.<\/p>\n Even with that, the Suns lost to Oklahoma City by 49 and 27 in the regular season, and the Thunder \u2014 low-key wracked by injuries during the regular season \u2014 should also be back at full strength for the playoffs.<\/p>\n If it\u2019s Golden State, good night and good luck. The Thunder won all four meetings against the Warriors by 24, 12, 37 and seven. The version of Golden State with Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzi\u0146\u0123is both playing is the best it can muster with Jimmy Butler sidelined, but the Warriors\u2019 inclination toward reckless turnovers doesn\u2019t bode well for a matchup against the handsy Thunder. Pick: Thunder in 4 against Golden State; Thunder in 5 against Phoenix<\/p>\n (2) San Antonio vs. (7) Portland (Preview<\/a>)<\/p>\n Don\u2019t be surprised if this is fairly interesting. All three regular-season games between these teams were competitive, although Victor Wembanyama missed two of them. The Blazers even won at San Antonio despite myriad injuries leaving them with just four players available who will get run in this series (Caleb Love, Sidy Cissoko, Rayan Rupert and Yang Hansen combined to play 75 minutes that night).<\/p>\n Portland is at full strength, has elite defenders up and down the roster and threw a huge wrinkle at the Phoenix Suns in crunch time Tuesday with a Jerami Grant-at-center lineup that the Suns couldn\u2019t stop. (The \u201cStop playing Scoot Henderson\u201d adjustment also helped.) Deni Avdija was a monster against the Suns, a huge, bruising forward who relentlessly attacks off the dribble and presents a tricky matchup for the Spurs\u2019 mostly smaller wings. And the Blazers also have enough size to at least have a chance against Wembanyama.<\/p>\n The Blazers\u2019 undoing will be a lack of shooting, an especially notable weakness against a team that makes the rim area a no-go zone, and their still-glaring inability to score in the non-Avdija minutes. But Portland is already playing with house money just by being here. Pick: Spurs in 5<\/p>\n \n Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves are no strangers to Denver in the postseason. (Troy Taormina \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n (3) Denver vs. (6) Minnesota (Preview<\/a>)<\/p>\n On paper, this is the best first-round series, with two high-quality, mostly healthy teams that already have significant history. In reality, I\u2019m not sure how hard this will be for Denver.<\/p>\n The Nuggets won three of the four meetings between the teams this season despite navigating numerous injuries along the way, and they seem much more fit and ready for this series than the wobbling Wolves. On the other hand, Minnesota has made the conference finals in consecutive seasons, beating Denver to get there in 2024 and arriving as the sixth seed in 2025. Obviously, some historical precedents favor the Wolves.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, this might be the most complete team that the Nuggets have ever put around Nikola Joki\u0107, including a bench that doesn\u2019t immediately wilt the second he checks out of a game. Minnesota\u2019s depth seems shakier this time around, and the difference in starting lineups is profound: The Wolves\u2019 go-to quintet was plus-7.9 per 100 this season; Denver\u2019s was a staggering plus-13.5.<\/p>\n I\u2019m excited to see what this looks like on the court, but in the end, it might be a bit easier for Denver than people expect. Pick: Nuggets in 5<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/USATSI_28695131-scaled.jpg\")
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