article<\/a> on all 12 experts betting on Cleveland to advance could ignite some flames. <\/p>\nI\u2019m not here to give any homer takes justifying why Toronto is a good darkhorse to the series. <\/p>\n
Cleveland has many strengths that Toronto is unlikely to overcome. <\/p>\n
They have their fair share of weaknesses but sadly the Raptors don\u2019t have a roster catered to exploit them.<\/p>\n
My one Toronto-based take which I stand firmly behind \u2013 this is a freeroll postseason appearance for the Raps. <\/p>\n
There\u2019s obviously pressure to not get swept or embarrassed but given Cleveland\u2019s big swing for James Harden and their disappointing postseason results over the past two years, the heavy expectations fall on their shoulders. <\/p>\n
I\u2019ll go through one key question for both sides and provide some best bets for the series and Game 1. <\/p>\n
Forcing the Fast Break <\/p>\n
It\u2019s universally understood that the game slows down in the playoffs versus the regular season, but if the Raptors have any chance in this series, they need to replicate elements of their league-leading transition offence that averaged 18.9 points a night. <\/p>\n
During last year\u2019s postseason, the average team scored 12.0 points a game in transition. <\/p>\n
Over 82 regular-season games this year, the league averaged 15.2. <\/p>\n
While there is a slight 3.2-point drop-off, it\u2019s not as if fast-break offence magically disappears in the playoffs.<\/p>\n
Toronto\u2019s advantage in this series will be their defence (5th-ranked defensive rating versus 15th); that needs to be compounded into defence-to-offence execution. <\/p>\n
As effective as Cleveland has been at limiting points in the paint, they were below-average preventing transition opportunities. <\/p>\n
According to Cleaning The Glass, they were 22nd in transition frequency allowed – 26th off live rebounds and 21st off turnovers. <\/p>\n
The Raptors are a young athletic team and have the elements to make this a core strategy. <\/p>\n
Few players hunt opportunities down the court better than Barnes. <\/p>\n
The Raptors have several finishers in RJ Barrett, Ja\u2019Kobe Walter, and Sandro Mamukelashvili who excel at getting behind their defenders. <\/p>\n
While Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are offensive maestros, neither profile as plus-defenders.<\/p>\n
Akin to how Indiana ran New York out of the gym during last year\u2019s Conference Finals, Toronto\u2019s counter to Cleveland\u2019s strengths is to expose their two stars defensively. <\/p>\n
Win the 4-on-3s<\/p>\n
As mentioned above, Cleveland has both the No. 1 and No. 2 offensive weapons in this series. <\/p>\n
Both are equally dangerous in their own ways. <\/p>\n
Leave either in one-on-one action, chances are a high-quality shot is getting up. <\/p>\n
Toronto has shown a willingness throughout the season to blitz and double opposing superstars making the rest of the team beat them. <\/p>\n
That works against some less capable offences; Cleveland very likely will murder them for applying that type of look. <\/p>\n
The key for their offensive scheme will come down to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen being able to work off those 4-on-3s getting themselves clean looks at the rim. <\/p>\n
Cleveland doesn\u2019t have the strength advantage in this series, but they do have the speed advantage.<\/p>\n
If Harden and Mitchell break through Toronto\u2019s perimeter coverages with ease, I don\u2019t think Toronto has the personnel to limit the damage at the rim and subsequently the open looks from beyond the arc.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m expecting a lot of hockey assists from their two primaries \u2013 Mitchell and Harden.<\/p>\n
Series-long Prediction \u2013 Cleveland 4-2<\/p>\n
The Raptors are making their first playoff appearance ever with a Barnes-led roster. <\/p>\n
Mitchell is in the midst of his ninth straight.<\/p>\n
Spida is no slouch in the playoffs – his 28.3 ppg average is 3.2 points higher than his nine-year regular season average. <\/p>\n
Harden and Mitchell both have yet to put a championship on their resumes, but with The Beard making his 16th appearance, they clearly have the experience advantage.<\/p>\n
Toronto winning this series would go against everything advanced analytics supports. <\/p>\n
I for one though don\u2019t buy into the notion that Toronto will get the doors blown off. <\/p>\n
Since the All-Star Break, the Raptors have quietly had the better net rating (10th) compared to Cleveland\u2019s (12th). <\/p>\n
They\u2019ve shot 37.7 percent from deep which was sixth-best in the NBA; a drastic flip from their 25th-ranked efficiency pre\u2013All-Star Break.<\/p>\n
They hold some advantages which Cleveland is unlikely to have counters for. <\/p>\n
The major x-factor to me comes down to Immanuel Quickley\u2019s health. <\/p>\n
His three-point shooting is so critical in this specific series. <\/p>\n
If his threat from deep isn\u2019t present, it might be a bridge too far for Toronto to pull off the stunner.<\/p>\n
Ja\u2019Kobe Walter 2+ threes (+120)<\/p>\n
Ahead of their 1:00pm tip-off on Saturday, the first bet I\u2019d push hard for is the red-hot Walter. <\/p>\n
My biggest reason to get your money in now \u2013 I\u2019m worried about IQ\u2019s status as we get closer to game time. <\/p>\n
Even if he plays, he\u2019s looked laboured and logged limited minutes.<\/p>\n
In the event Quickley sits, I am heavily advocating for Walter to either start or see 30 minutes or more. <\/p>\n
Since IQ first went down on March 20th, Walter has led Toronto with 2.8 three-pointers made on a scorching hot 52.2 clip over 13 games.<\/p>\n
Flipping to Cleveland\u2019s defensive tendencies, their scheme is predicated on taking away the rim. <\/p>\n
While they only ranked 18th in defensive rating overall, they were 4th-best in points in the paint allowed (44.3). <\/p>\n
The Cavs were generous to opposing shooters giving up the seventh-most attempts.<\/p>\n
Jarrett Allen o14.5 points (-106)<\/p>\n
I am shocked at how low the opening number is for Cleveland\u2019s big man. <\/p>\n
Three years ago, Allen was made into a meme for claiming \u201cthe lights were brighter than expected\u201d following an early first-round exit. <\/p>\n
This year, his role and support should be different. <\/p>\n
Since the All-Star Break, Cleveland was nearly at full strength; Allen was the one who missed the most games. <\/p>\n
He played 13 total since February 18th (11 alongside Mobley), and in those contests he averaged 16.3 points per game on limited minutes. <\/p>\n
I spotlighted the incoming 4-on-3 opportunities to come this series; many of those situations end with Allen dunking at the rim. <\/p>\n
If the Raptors play more straight-up defence, Harden-Allen pick-and-rolls will be aplenty, and Harden is the very best at getting his big men easy looks. <\/p>\n
My other red flag for this bet unfortunately relates to Jakob Poeltl who\u2019s been pressing defensively. <\/p>\n
Running the game log on opposing centres, you\u2019ll find one too many above-average games from traditional bigs like Allen. <\/p>\n
Karl-Anthony Towns \u2013 22 points<\/p>\n
Neemias Queta \u2013 18 points <\/p>\n
Jalen Duren \u2013 31 and 20 points<\/p>\n
For three seasons straight, Allen has averaged most points in his splits versus Toronto compared to his season averages. <\/p>\n
I think you\u2019re getting him at a buy-low considering he averaged just 26.5 minutes over 13 games post-ASW as he was nursing a right knee injury.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s been four long years since the Toronto Raptors found themselves in the postseason. Take a moment of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":712361,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3770],"tags":[7,6,681,680,476,3820],"class_list":{"0":"post-712360","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-toronto-raptors","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-nba","10":"tag-raptors","11":"tag-toronto","12":"tag-toronto-raptors","13":"tag-torontoraptors"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116419622525012259","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/712360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=712360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/712360\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/712361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=712360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=712360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=712360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}