As our colleague Eric Koreen noted<\/a>, Toronto went 5-22 against the West\u2019s top six teams and the East\u2019s top four. I don\u2019t love that Immanuel Quickley is coming off a hamstring injury either.<\/p>\nHarper: I have serious questions about how the Cavs expect to defend with James Harden and Donovan Mitchell on the court together. Lucky for them, I\u2019m not sure the Raptors have enough offensively to pose those questions.<\/p>\n
Katz: I could see this being a short series. The Cavaliers\u2019 firepower is too strong. Toronto is a hard-playing, defensively capable squad but lacks the half-court attack to keep up with Cleveland\u2019s explosive scorers.<\/p>\n
East champion
\n TeamPercent of vote<\/p>\n
Celtics<\/p>\n
66.70%<\/p>\n
Knicks<\/p>\n
24.20%<\/p>\n
Pistons<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
Cavaliers<\/p>\n
3%<\/p>\n
Clark: The Knicks were my preseason pick, and I\u2019m sticking with them. Four teams finished in the top seven in offense and defense this season: Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Boston and New York. I like the Knicks\u2019 balance and believe Mitchell Robinson will be an enormous difference-maker off the bench.<\/p>\n
Murray: I\u2019m also sticking with my preseason Knicks pick, but they need the Cavaliers to do them a solid and take the Pistons out, because there was nothing about those Pistons-Knicks games that made me think New York has anything for Detroit.<\/p>\n
Harper: I\u2019m going Celtics. I think the Knicks have the best team, but the style of play and the identity of the Celtics are stronger. The Knicks can get there, and whoever wins that second-round matchup likely wins the conference. Boston just seems to know itself better right now.<\/p>\n
Katz: Celtics. They have a distinct identity, and Jayson Tatum looks leaps and bounds better than anyone could have hoped. I wouldn\u2019t bet my life on them winning the East. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if any team in the conference\u2019s top four won three playoff series, but I think Boston is the best choice.<\/p>\n
Western ConferenceNo. 1 Thunder vs. No. 8 Suns
\n ThunderSuns<\/p>\n
4 games<\/p>\n
63.6%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
5 games<\/p>\n
33.3%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
6 games<\/p>\n
3%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
7 games<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
Total<\/p>\n
100%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
Clark: Devin Booker must deal with the Lu Dort-Cason Wallace-Alex Caruso three-headed monster. Godspeed. Oklahoma City is a machine that I don\u2019t think will play with its food this series. It\u2019s simply a major accomplishment for the Suns to even make it here.<\/p>\n
Harper: The Suns are a great story this season with how they\u2019ve demolished the low expectations for them. They\u2019ll have to keep that story in mind as the Thunder sweep them.<\/p>\n
Katz: We all know who will win this series, so I\u2019ll make an off-the-beaten-path prediction: This will be the most-contentious series of the first round. It has more irritants than any other. At some point, Dillon Brooks will infuriate at least six Thunder players. Dort will do the same to Booker. There is an obvious talent gap between the Suns and Thunder, but in some ways, they are alike. Both teams are hypercompetitive. Their brand is playing hard. That could make for some raucous playoff moments.<\/p>\n
No. 2 Spurs vs. No. 7 Trail Blazers
\n SpursBlazers<\/p>\n
4 games<\/p>\n
27.2%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
5 games<\/p>\n
60.6%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
6 games<\/p>\n
12.1%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
7 games<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
Total<\/p>\n
100%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
Clark: Deni Avdija, who made eight shots at the rim in Portland\u2019s Play-In Tournament win, is a downhill driver. I predict he\u2019s going to have a hard time with Victor Wembanyama waiting for him.<\/p>\n
Murray: This matchup intrigues me because Donovan Clingan has the kind of interior presence that matters against Wembanyama, who was born to prevent Scoot Henderson from being the top pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. Speaking of Henderson, he needs to be good for Portland to have any kind of chance.<\/p>\n
Katz: Avdija has become the NBA\u2019s most relentless attacker of the basket. He drove to the basket 19.4 times a game during the regular season, tops in the NBA, according to Second Spectrum. And now, he faces the man who scares drivers away from the paint more than anyone. Will he, for the first time all season, think twice before jetting into the paint?<\/p>\n
No. 3 Nuggets vs. No. 6 Timberwolves
\n NuggetsTimberwolves<\/p>\n
4 games<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
5 games<\/p>\n
12.1%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
6 games<\/p>\n
36.4%<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
7 games<\/p>\n
39.4%<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
Total<\/p>\n
87.9%<\/p>\n
12.1%<\/p>\n
Clark: My enduring memory of Minnesota\u2019s seven-game win over Denver in 2024 is Jamal Murray struggling to bring the ball up the floor against the Timberwolves\u2019 defensive pressure. Murray is coming off his best regular season ever. I think he\u2019ll have a good series.<\/p>\n
Harper: The Nuggets rolled into the playoffs on a high but have some injury concerns. The Wolves limped into the playoffs with some injury concerns, but the Wolves really get up for Denver, and these two teams have a fun history. I have the Nuggets in seven (the cowards\u2019 pick), but I\u2019m not convinced they win.<\/p>\n
Katz: This series has it all. Superstars in Nikola Joki\u0107 and Anthony Edwards; All-NBA performers in Murray, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle; aggressive defenders and brilliant ball-movers. Most importantly, it has history. This is the third time in four postseasons these two teams have met. They\u2019ve split the previous two series. The last time they played, it went seven games. There aren\u2019t many great rivalries in the NBA anymore, but this has a chance to become one.<\/p>\n
No. 4 Lakers vs. No. 5 Rockets
\n LakersRockets<\/p>\n
4 games<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
5 games<\/p>\n
0%<\/p>\n
30.3%<\/p>\n
6 games<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
51.5%<\/p>\n
7 games<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
Total<\/p>\n
12.1%<\/p>\n
87.9%<\/p>\n
Clark: If ever there was a time for DeAndre Ayton to show he\u2019s a cut above prime Clint Capela, it\u2019s now.<\/p>\n
Murray: If this were paper, then the Rockets should win this series quite easily, but they are thoroughly untrustworthy. The Lakers have home-court advantage and had enough time to prepare to play without Luka Don\u010di\u0107 and Austin Reaves, and with LeBron James getting as many touches as he could want.<\/p>\n
Harper: Even if Don\u010di\u0107 or Reaves get to this series at some point, will they be healthy enough to swing it? How early do they have to come back to give the Lakers what they need? At the same time, as Law said above, Houston is not trustworthy at all.<\/p>\n
West champion
\n TeamPercent of vote<\/p>\n
Thunder<\/p>\n
66.7%<\/p>\n
Nuggets<\/p>\n
18.1%<\/p>\n
Spurs<\/p>\n
15.2%<\/p>\n
Clark: The Thunder. The Nuggets were my preseason pick in the West, but their road to the finals, which would likely require them to beat the Timberwolves, Spurs and Thunder, looks brutal. OKC shouldn\u2019t have to expend nearly as much energy.<\/p>\n
Murray: I\u2019m going with the Thunder, but similar to the East, there is a contending threat that Oklahoma City does not want to see in the conference finals. The difference between San Antonio\u2019s rim protection and Denver\u2019s rim protection is vast, and the Thunder need their biggest threat to get handled in the second round.<\/p>\n
Harper: I\u2019d love to get cute and pick Denver or San Antonio. I would have gone with Denver before the Joki\u0107 injury. He hasn\u2019t been the same since getting back, even though he\u2019s still been absurd. If Denver were fully healthy, I\u2019d pick it, but OKC gets the nod; however, the Thunder need Jalen Williams to get back to his All-NBA form.<\/p>\n
Katz: The Thunder. The Spurs are awesome, but they\u2019re too young. The Nuggets are impressive, and maybe I\u2019ll eat crow for doubting Joki\u0107, but their bottom-10 defense is too much of a deterrent.<\/p>\n
Biggest threat to OKC(BetMGM title odds of +2000 or better entering Play-In Tournament)
\n TeamPercent of vote<\/p>\n
Spurs (+450)<\/p>\n
66.7%<\/p>\n
Celtics (+550)<\/p>\n
18.2%<\/p>\n
Nuggets (+1000)<\/p>\n
15.2%<\/p>\n
Clark: I think it\u2019s still the Nuggets, who took the Thunder to seven games last year in the second round. The Nuggets\u2019 defense wasn\u2019t very good this season, but a lot of that was related to Aaron Gordon only playing 36 games. I worry about Gordon\u2019s body holding up this postseason. If Denver can stay relatively healthy, I think Joki\u0107, Murray and the rest of the gang can challenge Oklahoma City. <\/p>\n
Murray: The Thunder lost 18 games this season. 22.2 percent of those losses were to a Spurs team that beat them in three states. The Spurs were the only West team that the Thunder couldn\u2019t beat multiple times. Any talk of Thunder threats has to begin and end deep in the heart of Texas.<\/p>\n
Harper: I know the Spurs were so fun against OKC and dominated it in the regular season, but I\u2019m going with Denver. A chaotic Denver team took the Thunder to seven games last year. The Nuggets still have Gordon\u2019s hamstring injuries to worry about, and you can add Peyton Watson to that, too. But this team is deeper and better than last year\u2019s team. OKC has been injured enough to worry.<\/p>\n
Katz: Boston. After the Celtics beat the Thunder at the end of March, there were OKC people who left the building thinking they just saw the team best fit to ruin their chance at a repeat. The Celtics can exploit one of the Thunder\u2019s only weaknesses, their so-so production on the glass. Boston is one of the NBA\u2019s best ball-control teams, which is especially important against the Thunder\u2019s high-turnover defense. The Celtics can deploy multiple creators at once, and they take enough 3-pointers that, if they get hot four out of seven times, they could end their season with a victory. <\/p>\n
NBA champion
\n TeamPercent of vote<\/p>\n
Thunder<\/p>\n
60.6%<\/p>\n
Nuggets<\/p>\n
15.2%<\/p>\n
Celtics<\/p>\n
12.1%<\/p>\n
Spurs<\/p>\n
12.1%<\/p>\n
Clark: The NBA will have its first repeat champion since the Warriors went back-to-back in 2017 and 2018. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is, somehow, better than he was a year ago. Ajay Mitchell will have big moments during the postseason. Jared McCain\u2019s TikTok dance will be the Thunder\u2019s version of Red Auerbach lighting up a cigar.<\/p>\n
Murray: I would pick the field against the Thunder if I were betting, but I don\u2019t have those apps on my phone, and the Thunder have done what they needed to do to remain the favorites. They will need to be better this postseason than they were last year to repeat.<\/p>\n
Harper: I am very on record for being anti-parity; it\u2019s not what makes the NBA great. You need villains. You need dynasties. Most importantly, you need the toppling of those villains and dynasties. The Thunder are turning into a villainous dynasty, and we need that. Give me the Thunder to repeat.<\/p>\n
Katz: The Thunder. They weren\u2019t even healthy this season. Their All-NBA wing Williams missed more than half the season. Mitchell and Isaiah Hartenstein were out for long stretches. And they still finished as the obvious best team. They won it all last season. Now, they\u2019re more experienced and deeper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Which team is best positioned to challenge an Oklahoma City Thunder repeat? And in the end, will the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":713098,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[208,7,75,193,187,188,194,150,152,6,12,191,179,76,207,472,471,474,476],"class_list":{"0":"post-713097","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba-draft","8":"tag-atlanta-hawks","9":"tag-basketball","10":"tag-boston-celtics","11":"tag-cleveland-cavaliers","12":"tag-denver-nuggets","13":"tag-detroit-pistons","14":"tag-houston-rockets","15":"tag-los-angeles-lakers","16":"tag-minnesota-timberwolves","17":"tag-nba","18":"tag-nba-draft","19":"tag-new-york-knicks","20":"tag-oklahoma-city-thunder","21":"tag-orlando-magic","22":"tag-philadelphia-76ers","23":"tag-phoenix-suns","24":"tag-portland-trail-blazers","25":"tag-san-antonio-spurs","26":"tag-toronto-raptors"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116425190495332574","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=713097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713097\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/713098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=713097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=713097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=713097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}