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<\/p>\nFlorida star Thomas Haugh was a projected lottery pick for the 2026 NBA Draft, so the assumption was that Haugh\u2019s college days were over. Assumptions can no longer be made.<\/p>\n
The presence of name, image and likeness and the free-transfer era have created rampant roster turnover throughout the sport \u2014 a setting where Kansas could be returning just one player from its roster \u2014 but NIL has also impacted retention in a slightly unexpected way: Players who were locks to enter the NBA Draft in the past are no longer locks. Now both Haugh and UConn\u2019s Braylon Mullins have chosen to wait on their NBA futures to get paid handsomely to play another season of college basketball.<\/p>\n
In the last few springs, the teams that put together the glitziest transfer portal classes have dominated the headlines. But when tasked with identifying the biggest winners and losers of the offseason thus far, my focus turned to retention and the teams that have strategically filled holes in the portal without sacrificing the former.<\/p>\n
Michigan just won the national championship thanks in large part to four portal additions to its starting lineup, but the other three Final Four teams were built mostly through recruiting and retaining their best players. Even Michigan had three important players in its rotation who Dusty May held on to a year ago.<\/p>\n
You can build a championship contender through the portal, but it\u2019s much easier to add one or two pieces. Do not let Michigan\u2019s championship win create a narrative that the ideal roster build is to bring in four new starters through the portal. My bet is that we\u2019ll look back in 10 years and 2026 Michigan will be more of an outlier than the standard.<\/p>\n
WinnersFlorida<\/p>\n
Portal addition: Denzel Aberdeen (if given a waiver)<\/p>\n
Portal losses: Olivier Rioux<\/p>\n
Key retentions: Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu (if he returns), Boogie Fland, Urban Klavzar, Isaiah Brown<\/p>\n
The Gators are here because of borderline miraculous retention. The first big win was convincing Alex Condon to return to school. Then Todd Golden (with the help of some large dollar bills) convinced Haugh to return for his senior season, which most likely locks in the Gators to be preseason No. 1. Florida returns four starters \u2014 pending Rueben Chinyelu\u2019s stay-or-go NBA Draft decision \u2014 from a team that won the SEC and was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.<\/p>\n
While the ending was not ideal \u2014 a second-round exit against Iowa \u2014 the Gators are replicating their model that had them performing better than anyone in the sport in January and February and was similar to Michigan\u2019s that won the national title. Everyone is trying to get bigger, and Florida clearly has the biggest and best frontline.<\/p>\n
The No. 1 ranking is almost a certainty if Chinyelu returns and Aberdeen is rewarded a fifth year of eligibility. His case is not a gimme, however. He played only 12 games and 2.9 percent of the available minutes for the Gators as a freshman, but he did play eight minutes in the final game of the season).<\/p>\n
It would be such an easy transition since Aberdeen played three years for Florida before transferring to Kentucky. He addresses the one need Florida had, a starting combo guard who could play some point guard and score, replacing Xaivian Lee.<\/p>\n
Illinois<\/p>\n
Portal additions: Stefan Vaaks<\/p>\n
Portal losses: Ty Rodgers, Brandon Lee, Toni Bilic, Mihailo Petrovic<\/p>\n
Key retentions: Tomislav Ivisic, David Mirkovic, Jake Davis and Andrej Stojakovic, Zvonimir Ivisic<\/p>\n
Purdue, Michigan State and Iowa are three other Big Ten teams who fit in the winner\u2019s retention club, but Illinois flexed the most muscle in this category. The Illini got back four players (Tomislav Ivisic, David Mirkovic, Jake Davis and Andrej Stojakovic) who started at least 21 games, plus Zvonimir Ivisic, who would be a starter on most teams. Add Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks, and this should be the favorite to win the Big Ten. If Michigan can get back Aday Mara or Morez Johnson Jr., then it\u2019s a discussion. But for now, the Illini are set.<\/p>\n
Vaaks was the perfect addition to replace Keaton Wagler. Vaaks, who is 6-foot-7, ranked in the 84th percentile for pick-and-roll handlers last season, per Synergy. He flashed the ability to make off-the-dribble jump shots (see below) and finish efficiently around the rim, two attributes that made Wagler elite in the Illini system.<\/p>\n
Vaaks was not quite at Wagler\u2019s level, but he was close, and now he\u2019ll be surrounded by better talent and a year older. This could be a very fruitful setup for both player and team.<\/p>\n
The losses of Ty Rodgers and Brandon Lee hurt the Illini\u2019s depth. For next season, their losses will only matter if the Illini whiff on their freshman class. That\u2019s doubtful. Brad Underwood signed five freshmen, and his staff has a pretty good track of identifying talent that fits.<\/p>\n
UConn<\/p>\n
Portal additions: Nikolas Khamenia, Najai Hines<\/p>\n
Portal losses: Eric Reibe, Jaylin Stewart, Jacob Furphy, Rrezon Elezaj, Uros Paunovic<\/p>\n
Key retentions: Silas Demary Jr., Braylon Mullins, Jayden Ross<\/p>\n
Dan Hurley has quickly rebuilt one of the best starting lineups in the country, made possible by retaining Mullins. UConn will win in 2026-27 because of retention and strategically plugging holes with players who fit. In Duke transfer Nikolas Khamenia and Seton Hall transfer Najai Hines, Hurley found two players who slot into the roles vacated by Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed. They have the potential to develop into players who can replicate their production. With Solo Ball out for the next season following wrist surgery, the Huskies have three solid options to take Ball\u2019s spot in wing Jayden Ross or one of the two incoming four-star freshmen (Colben Landrew and Junior County).<\/p>\n
Hines is 6-10 and 265 pounds, the exact measurements of Reed during his sophomore year at Michigan. Reed changed his body and became an efficient monster at UConn. Hines has the same strengths that should help him fill that role. He\u2019s efficient as a post-up scorer \u2014 1.188 points per possession, per Synergy \u2014 and also ranked 19th in offensive rebounding rate. He\u2019s an even better shot blocker. If he can replicate the improvements to his physique, he could also become a dominant college big man.<\/p>\n
Khamenia has the size and shooting potential to be the ideal fit. He was a five-star recruit in the loaded 2025 class and was solid as a freshman on one of the best teams in the country, averaging 5.7 points in 19.8 minutes per game.<\/p>\n
The loss of backup center Eric Reibe, who transferred to USC, hurts UConn\u2019s interior depth and still needs to be addressed. The Huskies could use a backup point guard as well.<\/p>\n
Saint Louis<\/p>\n
Portal addition: Alon Michaeli<\/p>\n
Portal losses: Brady Dunlap, Kalu Anya<\/p>\n
Key retentions: Amari McCottry, Trey Green, Kellen Thames, Quentin Jones, Ishan Sharma<\/p>\n
Josh Schertz got a contract extension and a very generous increase to his NIL budget, and it has already paid off handsomely. It seems impossible these days for anyone outside of the power conferences to retain their talented players. Well, Schertz just pulled off the impossible.<\/p>\n
The Billikens return five rotation players from a 29-win team. Dunlap, the one portal loss, averaged 17 minutes per game and was the sixth-leading scorer among players with remaining eligibility. Those five returning all averaged 9-plus points per game last year, and it\u2019s a good bet the SLU offense will once again be one of the best in the country.<\/p>\n
The obvious need was a Robbie Avila replacement. Alon Michaeli, who averaged 7.1 points at Colorado this season, is not a sexy name on paper but could be an ideal fit. Michaeli has some Avila-like pizazz off the bounce. How many bigs can make a move like this?<\/p>\n
Similar to Avila, he can finish with both hands around the basket. His performance at last year\u2019s under-20 Euro Championships suggests he\u2019s capable of more as a scorer. He was the third-leading scorer in that tournament, averaging 17.3 points per game for Israel. He needs more seasoning, but Schertz has a long track record of players\u2019 efficiency and production shooting up in his system. The Billikens will likely add more depth, but they\u2019re off to a good start.<\/p>\n
Arizona<\/p>\n
Portal additions: JJ Mandaquit, Derek Dixon<\/p>\n
Portal losses: Dwayne Aristode, Sidi Gueye<\/p>\n
Key retentions: Motiejus Krivas, Ivan Kharchenkov<\/p>\n
Do not be surprised if Tommy Lloyd has some international signings up his sleeve that will turn this roster into one of the best in college basketball. What\u2019s important is that Lloyd is likely bringing back Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas, which pretty much guarantees he\u2019ll have an elite defense.<\/p>\n
Lloyd also made the smart decision to coach USA Basketball\u2019s under-18 and then under-19 basketball teams the last two summers, and that\u2019s paying off. Caleb Holt, his best incoming recruit, played for Lloyd last summer, and so did Washington transfer point guard JJ Mandaquit. Mandaquit didn\u2019t have great numbers as a freshman at Washington, but Lloyd knows what he\u2019s getting, and Mandaquit has a familiarity that will give him a leg up on the transition over most transfers.<\/p>\n
Lloyd also signed UNC transfer Derek Dixon, who could end up as his starting point guard or play alongside Mandaquit. Dixon, who shot 39.7 percent from 3 as a freshman at North Carolina, also fills a shooting need and the Gonzaga offensive system usually thrives with two point guards in the starting lineup.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also worth noting that Koa Peat and Brayden Burries have yet to announce their intentions. If one or both return, then Arizona could end up the preseason title favorite. Both could improve their draft position for a 2027 draft that is not expected to be as strong.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n Jon Scheyer has been busy in the portal \u2014 and has Duke poised to contend for the title again in 2026-27 as a result. (Jared C. Tilton \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Duke<\/p>\n
Portal additions: John Blackwell, Drew Scharnowski<\/p>\n
Portal losses: Nikolas Khamenia, Darren Harris<\/p>\n
Key retentions: Patrick Ngongba, Dame Sarr, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer<\/p>\n
Jon Scheyer has nailed roster construction the previous two offseasons, and it appears Duke is positioned to be one of the best college basketball teams next season. The Blue Devils already had a really good roster, but it seemed to be missing a true go-to guy. Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell\u2019s commitment Tuesday fills that bucket.<\/p>\n
This will be a different look for Scheyer, whose first four teams were all built around a versatile power forward. But he has been able to stick to his roster-building tendencies that have worked: length and skill.<\/p>\n
Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski is insurance in case five-star power forward Cameron Williams is not ready to be a star right away like Cameron Boozer and Cooper Flagg. Scharnowski also provides a back-to-the-basket presence and value defensively; he made the Missouri Valley all-defensive team.<\/p>\n
Scheyer once again landed the No. 1 recruiting class, but his ability to retain a strong core is why Duke is in a great spot. Inexperience won\u2019t be a weakness with this team. The backcourt might be a little crowded, and it could be a challenge to manage those minutes and expectations, but winning usually helps the cause.<\/p>\n
LosersKansas or Kentucky \u2014 the Tyran Stokes sweepstakes loser<\/p>\n
Stokes, the No. 1 recruit in the 2026 freshman class, is expected to land at Kansas or Kentucky, and the waiting game has put both schools in a predicament.<\/p>\n
For those who have done fantasy football auction drafts, imagine waiting until late in the auction to acquire your stud, and there\u2019s one guy you\u2019re banking on getting. You know you need to save money to have a shot, and you\u2019re watching the backup plans go off the board one by one.<\/p>\n
Ideally, Kansas and Kentucky would have entered this portal season knowing whether they had the 6-9 Stokes. That hasn\u2019t happened.<\/p>\n
Both have been able to build their backcourts. Kentucky has commitments from Furman\u2019s Alex Wilkins and Washington\u2019s Zoom Diallo; Kansas has a commitment from Toledo\u2019s Leroy Blyden and had already signed five-star point guard Taylen Kinney. Freshman Kohl Rosario is also back and a candidate for a breakout sophomore season. Another freshman, big man Paul Mbiya, announced he\u2019s returning to Kansas, but he only averaged five minutes a game last season.<\/p>\n
Where both could end up too late to the game is in the frontcourt. Kentucky was recruiting both Syracuse\u2019s Donnie Freeman and Colorado\u2019s Sebastian Rancik, and both committed elsewhere. Kansas has yet to sign a center from the transfer portal, the most expensive position, and the pickings are getting slim. Would both programs be set at those positions had they known what Stokes was doing? It\u2019s possible.<\/p>\n
The loser could be in a really tough spot. It\u2019s likely too late to come up with an alternative plan unless there\u2019s an international prospect who emerges. As for the portal, only 14 of the top 100 players in The Athletic\u2019s rankings<\/a> are still on the board.<\/p>\n \n TCU had a potential top-25 roster for next season \u2014 until the portal opened and it lost players like David Punch. (Jared C. Tilton \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n TCU<\/p>\n Portal additions: None<\/p>\n Portal losses: David Punch, Liutauras Lelevicius, Jace Posey, Kayden Edwards, Ashton Simmons, RJ Jones, Adam Stewart, Vianney Salatchoum<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/GettyImages-2267401672.jpg\")
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