Who would you rather have in a Game 7: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Joki\u0107 or Victor Wembanyama?<\/p>\n
Wemby will no doubt be the answer to this question at some point in the (perhaps not-too-distant) future. But for now, I defer to those with at least some playoff experience. For my money, Joki\u0107 still reigns supreme as the best player alive, and for that reason, he\u2019s my pick. CDL<\/p>\n
Joki\u0107. Not since peak Shaq has there been an offensive force this inevitable. He\u2019s in the top 10 ever, already. 6ft 11in, 284lb, unguardable. Guard\u2019s mind, center\u2019s mass, wing\u2019s skill. Makes everyone around him better, putting a battery in their back. Sre\u0107no. That\u2019s Serbian for good luck. LE<\/p>\n
There\u2019s not a finer player on the planet right now than Joki\u0107, who at 31 is on a course to be in my all-time top five by the time he calls it a career. You\u2019d truly never hear the end of it if he played in New York or LA. But at the moment, in a one-off and even as a playoff debutant, I\u2019d fancy a punt on the vertiginous upside of Wembanyama. Game 7s have a way of tilting on chaos and no one creates more of it by erasing shots, stretching defenses and warping opponents\u2019 decision-making. If he hits his ceiling for one night, whatever that may be, it\u2019s a fait accompli. BAG<\/p>\n
You know what? Gimme Victor. I don\u2019t think we\u2019ve fully reckoned with the Jordan<\/a>esque scale of his competition problem. The Frenchman spent the previous offseason training with Shaolin monks, a fact that can never be overstated. He marked the Spurs\u2019 regular-season series triumph over the Thunder<\/a>, who were threatening the 2016 Warriors\u2019 single-season wins record, by absorbing their supporter chants and squad culture like Thanos. He remained a viable MVP candidate even while playing under a wholly legitimate minutes\u2019 restriction. Put all that in a 7ft 4in alloy of Steph off the dribble and Shaq in the paint and, sure, I\u2019ll take my chances. AL<\/p>\n Team that will be most missed in these playoffs<\/p>\n Call me nostalgic, but I\u2019m still pining for last season\u2019s Indiana Pacers. It seems cruel and unusual that we had that team ripped from us in such dramatic and devastating fashion<\/a>, and a playoffs without the scintillating Tyrese Haliburton and his never-say-die supporting cast is an objective downgrade. CDL<\/p>\n Missed \u2013 as in absent? The Lakers are technically in the playoffs, but not really: Luka Don\u010di\u0107 and Austin Reaves are gone, and so is any illusion of the team being at full strength. LeBron James<\/a>, once again, will drag what\u2019s left of the roster for as long as it lasts, maybe for the final time in LA. LE<\/p>\n Jalen Brunson (center) and New York Knicks are looking to break a 53-year championship drought. Photograph: Gregory Shamus\/Getty Images<\/p>\n It\u2019s Miami for me. Only three teams seeded fifth or worse have managed to scratch their way into the NBA finals<\/a> since 2000. Six teams ever. Two of them were Erik Spoelstra joints: the 2020 and 2023 Heat. Even in down years, there\u2019s an institutional culture in South Beach seemingly lab-made for postseason mayhem: adaptive, opportunistic, built for disorder. The East side of the bracket just feels less dangerous without Coach Spo scheming another batch of role players into playoff giant-killers. BAG<\/p>\n It still smarts to be denied the chance to see this newly emboldened version of Miami\u2019s Bam Adebayo who can apparently go for 83 points<\/a> on any given night. It further feels especially cruel that the Hornets got to play on after LaMelo Ball\u2019s dirty defense<\/a> on Adebayo in their play-in matchup on Tuesday \u2013 though Ball was fined, which, I suspect, comes as little consolation to Spoelstra\u2019s crew. AL<\/p>\n High seed at risk of going out early<\/p>\n Conventional wisdom would say this is the Lakers, and that\u2019s probably the correct pick. But it feels a little too obvious to choose the team who lost their top two scorers, Don\u010di\u0107 and Reaves. So keep an eye on the second-seeded Spurs. They\u2019re set to face the winner of Nuggets-Timberwolves in round two, and if that\u2019s Denver, I\u2019d pick the more experienced team to survive and advance. CDL<\/p>\n For the first time in NBA history, there have been seven different champions in a seven-year span. Last year\u2019s winners Oklahoma City are hotly tipped to end that streak<\/a><\/p>\n The top-seeded Pistons, although this hinges on Charlotte making it through as the No 8 seed in Friday night\u2019s play-in. Matchups are fate. Detroit can\u2019t trade twos for threes with a Hornets team carrying the greatest shooting rookie ever and a pack of dawgs. That series could turn into carnage, fast. LE<\/p>\n I\u2019m afraid it\u2019s the Knicks. The first-round series with Atlanta is dicier than a 3-6 matchup suggests. The Hawks\u2019 length, shooting and post-All-Star surge make them dangerous floaters who have already shown they can push New York to the brink in three tightly wound regular-season contests<\/a>, including last week\u2019s barn-burner<\/a> played at playoff intensity. If Jalen Brunson gets crowded by Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the Knicks\u2019 deeper supporting cast stalls, it could get late early in Gotham. BAG<\/p>\n How about the Knicks drawing the short straw against Atlanta, one of the league\u2019s most improved teams after the All-Star break? More impressively, the Hawks did so after turning over the core of their roster, making this a far trickier matchup for New York, who were lucky to make it out of Atlanta last week with a three-point win and keep themselves in the driver\u2019s seat for the No 3 seed. The back-and-forth between Brunson and CJ McCollum has the potential to be box-office stuff. AL<\/p>\n Long shot to win<\/p>\n Take a walk with me, if you will, down Pigs-flying-with-dodo-birds Lane. An NBA<\/a> folk tale for the ages: LeBron James, one last time, puts a woefully ill-equipped team on his back, for one round … just long enough to facilitate the return of Don\u010di\u0107 and Reaves from injury. The Lakers then go on a memorable playoff run, lift the trophy and send James into retirement as a five-time champion. Is it likely? No. Would it be fun? The most. CDL<\/p>\n The Spurs. I called it pre-season<\/a>. They\u2019re ahead of schedule now, but Wemby sniffing a title in year three tells you what he is already. Around him: a swarm of fearless two-way wings and guards, a swarm of killer instinct. LE<\/p>\n Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City are bidding to become the first repeat NBA champions since the Golden State Warriors won three straight between 2017 and 2019. Photograph: Joshua Gateley\/Getty Images<\/p>\n The Pistons. Can a No 1 seed that paced the Eastern Conference for the final 157 days of the regular season really be considered a long shot? When the oddsmakers are pricing them as the seventh favorite to win the title, the answer is yes. Nobody seems to believe in Detroit\u2019s youth movement, even after the third 60-win season in the team\u2019s 85-year history. Their edge is a workmanlike consistency: a deep, unselfish system that\u2019s held through injuries and doesn\u2019t beat itself. BAG<\/p>\n The Hawks have length, bounce and brilliant tactician in Quin Snyder \u2013 who may well have the best NBA roster he\u2019s ever coached. What\u2019s more, they\u2019ve caused headaches for higher seeds in the past, pushing eventual champion Milwaukee to six games in the 2021 conference finals and spooking Boston in similar fashion in the 2023 first round. AL<\/p>\n Most important player this postseason<\/p>\n Joki\u0107 will, once again, face a gargantuan task. To get to the finals, he will probably have to overcome the thorn in his side that is the Timberwolves, take down Wemby and a red-hot Spurs team, and, ultimately, dethrone the reigning champions. But I believe if anyone is capable of such a task, it\u2019s the Serbian superstar. CDL<\/p>\n Gilgeous-Alexander. If his MVP trajectory falters \u2013 or worse, he\u2019s injured \u2013 it derails OKC\u2019s ascendent dynasty and throws the field into chaos, where anyone can bag the crown. LE<\/p>\n The San Antonio Spurs have emerged as a trendy pick to win the title behind 22-year-old star Victor Wembanyama. Photograph: Ronald Cortes\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Wembanyama. The 22-year-old from the Paris suburbs was breathlessly hyped as the NBA\u2019s best prospect since LeBron when he was still a gangly teenager, but he\u2019s somehow managed to exceed those expectations while growing mentally<\/a>, physically (he\u2019s 7ft 5in now?!<\/a>) and even spiritually<\/a>. The Spurs have emerged as a trendy pick to win it all after besting the Thunder in four of their five regular-season meetings and their cheat code at center remains the biggest potential spanner in the defending champs\u2019 repeat bid. BAG<\/p>\n Narratively, it\u2019s Anthony Edwards. The Minnesota star already shown he can drag a team deep into the playoffs, albeit with a roster that hadn\u2019t yet peaked. But if he can manage the trick again \u2013 with a thinner supporting cast, in a return to the sixth seed \u2013 it sure would make a helluva statement. AL<\/p>\n Eastern Conference finals<\/p>\n Knicks over Pistons. CDL<\/p>\n Knicks over Pistons. LE<\/p>\n Pistons over Celtics. BAG<\/p>\n Celtics over Pistons. AL<\/p>\n Western Conference finals<\/p>\n Thunder over Nuggets. CDL<\/p>\n Spurs over Thunder. LE<\/p>\n Thunder over Spurs. BAG<\/p>\n Thunder over Spurs. AL<\/p>\n Your NBA champion will be …<\/p>\n At the risk of dampening intrigue, I really do think the Thunder are likely to be repeat champions. They got healthy at the right time, their chemistry appears to be at an all-time high, SGA is favorite to win MVP and for some unknowable reason, Daryl Morey gift-wrapped them yet another perfectly suited bench player in Jared McCain. The Nuggets will give them a run for their money in the conference finals, but ultimately, I just can\u2019t pick against this Thunder machine. CDL<\/p>\n The Knicks. They already bloodied Boston and Detroit in last year\u2019s playoffs. There\u2019s the revenge for 1999<\/a> angle; even the Spurs don\u2019t scare them. OKC, young and brilliant, wilt under MSG\u2019s big city lights. Brunson, born to play basketball, takes the Knicks to the promised land, achieving sainthood. For a fanbase title-starved for more than five decades, this is more than a championship run. We\u2019re talking generational spiritual repair, the kind people chase in deserts, dreams and God. LE<\/p>\n The Thunder. Let the dynasty chatter begin. Oklahoma City are the most complete team with the deepest rotation in the most adaptable system. There are no weak points to attack. SGA is the MVP-caliber talent who anchors everything, but it\u2019s the collective that makes them overwhelming. They can win fast or slow, big or small, ugly or pretty. The question now is whether anyone can consistently disrupt them. The Spurs managed it in the regular season, but knocking OKC out of the playoffs will require near-perfect basketball for four quarters, four times. I wouldn\u2019t bet on it. BAG<\/p>\n The Celtics. Less than a year after Jayson Tatum went down with a ruptured achilles and threw Boston\u2019s future in doubt, he roars back and leads the Celtics to their 19th championship, rekindling dynasty talk and putting the rumors of unrest between him and Jaylen Brown to rest for good. Joe Mazzulla, now undeniably a mad genius<\/a>, celebrates by getting a pet wolf \u2013 but his wife says he can\u2019t keep it in the house. So the Celtics build a habitat outside the Garden, and fans make a tradition out of hurling the jerseys of their vanquished rivals, putting a basketball spin on the idea of being \u201cthrown to the wolves\u201d. AL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Who would you rather have in a Game 7: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Joki\u0107 or Victor Wembanyama? 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