Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Game 3 of the Los Angeles Lakers-Houston Rockets series.<\/p>\n
Three weeks ago, the Los Angeles Lakers\u2019 season looked dead in the water. In an April 2 game against the Oklahoma City Thunder \u2014 in which the Lakers got blown out \u2014 Austin Reaves sustained an oblique strain and Luka Don\u010di\u0107 went down with a hamstring strain. Los Angeles seemed like potential first-round fodder for whichever opponent (the Minnesota Timberwolves or Houston Rockets) was lucky enough to face it.<\/p>\n
But LeBron James turned back the clock, and now the Lakers are up 2-0 on the Rockets with the series headed back to Houston for an 8:10 p.m. ET Game 3. <\/p>\n
In even better news for Los Angeles, Reaves \u2014 though officially listed as questionable \u2014 seems like he\u2019s trending towards playing, while Don\u010di\u0107 remains out. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant (ankle) remains questionable, though there\u2019s no indication that he won\u2019t play, especially with his team effectively on the brink.<\/p>\n
Houston is an 8.5-point favorite<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-340 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 206.5. The Lakers are +270 on the Moneyline. Below, I\u2019ll break down this pivotal battle and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets preview, prediction<\/p>\n Los Angeles has won the first two games of the series behind its superstar duo of James and Luk\u2026e Kennard. The sharpshooter, acquired at the trade deadline for struggling Gabe Vincent, has provided a little bit of everything, averaging 25.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game through the first two games of the series. Though his shooting might dip at some point \u2014 72.7% from three-point range is obviously unsustainable, even for a pure shooter as talented as Kennard \u2014 the spacing his shooting provides should continue to stretch the Rockets\u2019 defense thin. Additionally, Marcus Smart has provided some quality minutes, especially in Game 2.<\/p>\n As for Houston, its Game 1 defeat was excusable, given that it didn\u2019t have Durant after he bumped knees with a teammate in practice. However, losing in Game 2, when Durant scored an efficient 23 points and looked more or less like himself, wasn\u2019t. Amen Thompson has tried \u2014 he\u2019s the only player on the team with a positive plus-minus for the series \u2014 but Jabari Smith Jr. shot just five-for-14 in Game 1 and the Rockets got just 10 points on four-for-25 shooting from their bench in Game 2. Reed Sheppard hasn\u2019t shot the ball well enough to make up for his ineptitude on defense, and Ime Udoka hasn\u2019t made the right adjustments. Houston needs basic improvements from top to bottom in order to win tonight.<\/p>\n Lakers at Rockets pick, best bet<\/p>\n In theory, the Lakers are extremely beatable by teams that can get downhill, since they allowed the third-highest percentage within five feet during the regular season. However, the Rockets aren\u2019t built to do that; despite starting a pair of complete non-shooters in Thompson and Alperen \u0218eng\u00fcn, Houston attempted the 12th-fewest shots within five feet during the regular season. To be fair, the Rockets have done an excellent job getting to the rim in the first two games, but they haven\u2019t finished well, making just 55.7% of their tries within five feet. While that could regress to the mean tonight, Los Angeles hasn\u2019t made its close shots at its typical rate either (63.5% versus 72.0% during the regular season), and Reaves\u2019 potential return should help with both its efficiency and its ability to penetrate, assuming he\u2019s even 50% healthy. Durant\u2019s possible absence would hurt Houston, since he was its most efficient finisher during the regular season.<\/p>\n Without as much of an advantage on the interior, the Rockets will need to dominate the glass, and so far, they\u2019ve done just that, winning the rebounding battle by at least five in each game. For the Lakers, that\u2019s something that Reaves could help with if he plays; the team had a rebounding percentage 1.6 percentage points higher with him on the floor than off. Houston has had a huge edge in both aspects of the transition game (points off of turnovers and fast-break points) on both sides of the ball, a stark reversal from the second half of the regular season, when Los Angeles hustled and the Rockets blundered with turnovers and lackadaisical effort. The Lakers have drawn more trips to the charity stripe, but that\u2019s likely sustainable, given that they attempted the second-most free throws during the regular season and Houston ranked near the middle of the pack.<\/p>\n The difference between these teams has been perimeter shooting. Los Angeles has posted a 61.2% effective field goal percentage so far this series, the best among the 16 playoff teams, while the Rockets\u2019 44.0% mark is the worst. The Lakers also rank first in three-point percentage and Houston third-to-last. Some regression to the mean should bring that chasm down (especially since Los Angeles has shot 56.0% on wide-open threes and the Rockets 29.4% despite the Lakers\u2019 attempting 4.5 fewer uncontested attempts per game), but Los Angeles just has more shooting talent. During the regular season, Don\u010di\u0107, Rui Hachimura, and Reaves all ranked in the top 50 in three-point percentage over expectation. For Houston, only Durant and Sheppard were above-average shooters, but the playoffs are notoriously challenging for young guards, so expecting Sheppard\u2019s regular season form might not be in the cards. <\/p>\n Even if Reaves plays, it would still be a surprise if the Rockets lost the game outright, given their home-court advantage (a net swing of 9.0 points per 100 possessions relative to the same matchup in Los Angeles) and the desperation that they\u2019ll be playing with. They\u2019re more due to benefit from luck, especially shooting luck. Still, if the Lakers can be more competitive on the boards and in transition, covering the spread should be the expectation, with or without Reaves.<\/p>\n