long-discussed tournament expansion idea became reality<\/a>, as the NCAA voted to grow the men\u2019s and women\u2019s tournament fields to 76 teams. Historically speaking, some fun teams would have benefited, perhaps none more so than Indiana State in 2024.<\/p>\nHowever, looking at the cutline for this postseason \u2014 which, by comparison, was one of the weakest in recent memory \u2014 paints a picture of the larger mediocrity that could be included in future fields.<\/p>\n
Most of that, as you\u2019d expect, comes from the high-major level. While San Diego State was included in the committee\u2019s \u201cFirst Four Out\u201d this March, the other three teams \u2014 Oklahoma, Auburn and Indiana \u2014 were all middling afterthoughts in their respective leagues.<\/p>\n
Take the Sooners, arguably the best of the bunch, who lost nine straight games in January and February, finishing 7-11 in the SEC. Or Auburn, which, on top of finishing only one game over .500, lost nine of its last 12 contests. Indiana\u2019s maybe the least defensible of them all, losing six of its last seven games to fall completely out of the 68-team field.<\/p>\n
And that\u2019s just the \u201cFirst Four Out,\u201d teams that had reasonable arguments for inclusion. There are several ways to project the final four teams who would\u2019ve made it this March, but they all require you to hold your nose first. If you go by Wins Above Bubble (WAB) \u2014 a new metric the committee introduced in 2025 \u2014 from Selection Sunday, Seton Hall, New Mexico, Belmont and Oklahoma State would\u2019ve made the cut.<\/p>\n
Or you can go by NET rankings, which \u2014 after eliminating any teams with losing records (Baylor, cough, cough) \u2014 leave you with New Mexico, Cincinnati, Tulsa and Seton Hall. Either way, not very appetizing.<\/p>\n
Using the latter method, you\u2019d have been looking at the following slate for March Madness\u2019 new opening round:<\/p>\n
One of the key arguments in favor of tournament expansion was improved \u201caccess\u201d for teams to participate in the postseason, especially as Division-I men\u2019s college basketball has swollen to 365 teams. A 76-team field means that just over 20 percent of DI teams will participate in March Madness, which sounds good on the surface \u2026 until you re-examine the lists of teams below the prior cutline.<\/p>\n
Maybe a few true mid-majors \u2014 like the 26-win Belmont team this season, which was upset in the Missouri Valley tournament \u2014 will squeeze through an expanded bubble. If so, an optimist could argue that giving lower-level leagues more chances to win games (and earn the accompanying NCAA Tournament financial units) is actually a good thing. And that would be.<\/p>\n
But all the data suggests the opposite will transpire. That most of the eight new berths awarded each March will instead go to high-major teams like Indiana, which simply didn\u2019t win enough to get in by 15-year-long standards.<\/p>\n
Building on the aforementioned Auburn example: How long until a high-major with a losing record gets in, then, saved by some sterling metrics?<\/p>\n
This season\u2019s bubble \u2014 fully accounting for the impact of modern trends, such as the transfer portal, NIL and revenue-sharing \u2014 could not have made a stronger case against NCAA Tournament expansion. Yet here we are, with our final 68-team bracket almost certainly in the rearview mirror.<\/p>\n
Fans, inevitably, will still tune in for an expanded (yet watered-down) first round. But it\u2019s very much to be determined what level of college basketball they\u2019ll actually be watching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If this most recent men\u2019s NCAA Tournament had featured 76 teams, we\u2019d have seen the first instance of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":721187,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[31476,7,31482,18361,10846,7150,217,6133,10412,3231,691,31489,31474,31483,17880,31491,31488,9417,31480,2811,19779,20707,31485,1984,31479,31478,3236,354,14569,231,772,1544,31477,31484,13492,1770,27569,783,13381,16556,31490,11349,6775,11668,10,18895,31486,31475,14568,18242,11969,31473,8858,31481,31487,25678,28283,1774,12809,12747],"class_list":["post-728546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaa-basketball","tag-albany-great-danes","tag-basketball","tag-binghamton-bearcats","tag-boston-college-eagles","tag-cincinnati-bearcats","tag-clemson-tigers","tag-college-basketball","tag-connecticut-huskies","tag-davidson-wildcats","tag-dayton-flyers","tag-duke-blue-devils","tag-duquesne-dukes","tag-east-carolina-pirates","tag-fgcu-eagles","tag-florida-state-seminoles","tag-fordham-ram","tag-george-washington-colonials","tag-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets","tag-hartford-hawks","tag-houston-cougars","tag-jacksonville-dolphins","tag-kennesaw-state-owls","tag-lipscomb-bisons","tag-louisville-cardinals","tag-maine-black-bears","tag-massachusetts-lowell-river-hawks","tag-memphis-tigers","tag-mens-college-basketball","tag-miami-hurricanes","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-basketball","tag-ncaab","tag-new-hampshire-wildcats","tag-njit-highlanders","tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","tag-north-florida-ospreys","tag-notre-dame-fighting-irish","tag-pittsburgh-panthers","tag-rhode-island-rams","tag-richmond-spiders","tag-saint-josephs-hawks","tag-smu-mustangs","tag-south-florida-bulls","tag-sports-business","tag-st-bonaventure-bonnies","tag-stetson-hatters","tag-stony-brook-seawolves","tag-syracuse-orange","tag-temple-owls","tag-tulane-green-wave","tag-tulsa-golden-hurricane","tag-ucf-knights","tag-umbc-retrievers","tag-usc-upstate-spartans","tag-vcu-rams","tag-vermont-catamounts","tag-virginia-cavaliers","tag-virginia-tech-hokies","tag-wake-forest-demon-deacons"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=728546"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728546\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/721187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=728546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=728546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=728546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}