{"id":729531,"date":"2026-05-09T05:39:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T05:39:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/729531\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T05:39:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T05:39:22","slug":"2026-nba-draft-lottery-each-teams-odds-of-landing-the-no-1-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/729531\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NBA Draft Lottery: Each team&#8217;s odds of landing the No. 1 pick"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Article-featuredImageImg\" alt=\"untitled-design-348.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/untitled-design-348.png\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"433\" width=\"770\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>The 2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/cbssports.com\/nba\/draft\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NBA Draft<\/a> Lottery will take place on Sunday (3:00 p.m. ET), and it could be one of the most consequential in league history. That&#8217;s because with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/news\/nba-draft-lottery-reform-biggest-questions-anti-tanking\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">the looming lottery reform<\/a>\u00a0that could be in place as soon as next year, there would be no draft floor.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/WAS\/washington-wizards\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Wizards<\/a> finished the 2025-26 season with the worst record (17-65). This weekend, the worst possible outcome for Washington is its pick landing at No. 5. Under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/news\/nba-new-draft-lottery-system-tanking\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">the proposed 3-2-1 lottery system<\/a>, the Wizards would be in the &#8220;relegation&#8221; zone and could fall as far as pick No. 12.<\/p>\n<p>Teams will have a whole summer and another <a href=\"https:\/\/cbssports.com\/nba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NBA<\/a> season to worry about what&#8217;s ahead. As of now? Teams are worried about the ping pong balls that could make-or-break what some teams have been planning on the rebuild front. The top of the 2026 draft class is as talented as any in the last decade, with BYU&#8217;s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas&#8217; Darryn Peterson, Duke&#8217;s Cameron Boozer and North Carolina&#8217;s Caleb Wilson expected to come off the board early.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/news\/2026-nba-mock-draft-aj-dybantsa-cameron-boozer\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>2026 NBA Mock Draft: AJ Dybantsa goes No. 1 to Wizards, Cameron Boozer selected at No. 2 by the Pacers<\/p>\n<p>\n                    Cameron Salerno                <\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" alt=\"2026 NBA Mock Draft: AJ Dybantsa goes No. 1 to Wizards, Cameron Boozer selected at No. 2 by the Pacers\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1778154319_889_untitled-design-346.png\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"152\" width=\"270\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Wizards, <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/IND\/indiana-pacers\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Indiana Pacers<\/a> and <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/BKN\/brooklyn-nets\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brooklyn Nets<\/a> all have equal odds (14%) of landing the No. 1 pick. After that, the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/UTA\/utah-jazz\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Utah Jazz<\/a> and <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/SAC\/sacramento-kings\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sacramento Kings<\/a> have the fourth-best odds (11.5%) to pick first after tying for the fourth-worst record. The <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/NO\/new-orleans-pelicans\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">New Orleans Pelicans<\/a> finished tied with the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/DAL\/dallas-mavericks\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Dallas Mavericks<\/a> for the seventh-worst record in the league. However, the Pelicans don&#8217;t own their first-round pick after trading it away on draft night last summer in a deal centered around <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/players\/29559183\/derik-queen\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Derik Queen<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/ATL\/atlanta-hawks\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Atlanta Hawks<\/a> will have two bites at the apple because they own the Pelicans&#8217; selection and have swap rights with the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/MIL\/milwaukee-bucks\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Milwaukee Bucks<\/a>. The <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/LAC\/los-angeles-clippers\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Los Angeles Clippers<\/a> owe their first-round pick to the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/OKC\/oklahoma-city-thunder\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a> no matter what, but could still pick at No. 5 or No. 6. The Pacers traded a top-four protected pick at the trade deadline to Los Angeles for <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/players\/2245326\/ivica-zubac\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ivica Zubac<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The pick would go to Los Angeles this year if it&#8217;s outside the top four. And if it doesn&#8217;t? It becomes an unprotected first-rounder in 2031.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the official odds ahead of the draft lottery this weekend.<\/p>\n<p>What are the odds for the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?<\/p>\n<p>The Wizards finished with the NBA&#8217;s worst record in 2025-26, thus earning a 14% chance to win the lottery. Indiana had the second-worst record and has a 14% chance as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The full odds board for each team to win the No. 1 pick and the chances each pick lands in the top four are below.<\/p>\n<p>PICKTEAM2025-26 RECORDWIN%TOP 4#1 OVERALL1Washington17-650.20752.1%14%2Indiana-x19-630.23252.1%14%3Brooklyn20-620.24452.1%14%4Utah22-600.26845.2%11.5%5Sacramento22-600.26845.2%11.5%6Memphis25-570.30537.0%9%7Atlanta (via NOP)26-560.31729.3%6.8%8Dallas26-560.31729%6.7%9Chicago31-510.37820.3%4.5%10Milwaukee-x32-500.3913.9%3%11Golden State37-450.4519.4%2%12Oklahoma City (via LAC)42-400.5127.1%1.5%13Miami43-390.5244.8%1%14Charlotte44-380.5372.4%0.5%<\/p>\n<p>x &#8211; Pick may be conveyed to another team<\/p>\n<p>If Indiana&#8217;s pick lands outside of the top four selections, the Clippers will receive the pick. If Indiana falls out of the top four, its pick would be No. 5 or No. 6.The Bucks are the only team here unable to receive the No. 1 pick. The Hawks have swap rights with the Bucks, meaning that if the Bucks draw the first overall pick, it can be swapped. Milwaukee would then receive the Pelicans&#8217; first-round pick, via the Hawks. The <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nba\/teams\/SA\/san-antonio-spurs\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Spurs<\/a> own the Hawks&#8217; first-round pick, which is slotted at pick No. 20.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Getty Images The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Sunday (3:00 p.m. ET), and it could&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":729532,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3780],"tags":[208,7,247,149,126,135,121,6,12,249,338,9452,9167,470,179,477,474,427,682,468,3892,683],"class_list":["post-729531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-washington-wizards","tag-atlanta-hawks","tag-basketball","tag-brooklyn-nets","tag-dallas-mavericks","tag-indiana-pacers","tag-los-angeles-clippers","tag-milwaukee-bucks","tag-nba","tag-nba-draft","tag-nba-draft-lottery","tag-nba-draft-order","tag-nba-lottery","tag-nba-lottery-odds","tag-new-orleans-pelicans","tag-oklahoma-city-thunder","tag-sacramento-kings","tag-san-antonio-spurs","tag-utah-jazz","tag-washington","tag-washington-wizards","tag-washingtonwizards","tag-wizards"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116543014971469834","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/729531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=729531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/729531\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/729532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=729531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=729531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=729531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}