It\u2019s an important day for the Bucks: the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery takes place at 2 p.m. Central this afternoon. Shortly thereafter, we\u2019ll know where Milwaukee will select for their first lottery pick since 2016: will they get really (and I mean really) lucky and receive a top-four selection in what\u2019s long been called a loaded draft class? Or will they be in the most likely places of 10th and 11th? Wherever they end up, will they use that pick to draft someone, or trade it for someone who helps them become a winning team again?<\/p>\n
As we wait for that answer, here\u2019s a rundown of what you should expect when you\u2019re watching today.<\/p>\n
We started discussing Milwaukee\u2019s likely landing spot as the second half wore on, and it became clear they wouldn\u2019t be making the postseason. When the tanking battles finished, the Bucks slotted in with the league\u2019s 10th-worst record. Based on the current system (which appears to be changing later this month), the Bucks have a 3% chance of winning the lottery and landing the first overall pick, a 3.3% chance for second, 3.6% for third, and 4% for fourth. Far more likely is their 65.9% chance of receiving 10th, followed by their 19% chance at 11th. They have about a 1.4% chance of ending up 12th through 14th.<\/p>\n
However, those are not actually the Bucks\u2019 odds. New Orleans owned the right to swap selections with Milwaukee, part of their return for sending Jrue Holiday to the 414 in late 2020. They could have chosen to take the most favorable of their pick and the Bucks\u2019, while the Bucks got the least favorable. But they traded that right to Atlanta in a widely panned draft night trade in 2025. So the Hawks actually receive the most favorable of the Bucks\u2019 and Pelicans\u2019 picks (note that Atlanta\u2019s record doesn\u2019t enter into the equation at all here).<\/p>\n
This means there is no chance the Bucks actually draft first overall, because if they won the lottery, that would mean they possess the most favorable pick between them and the Pelicans, and they\u2019d have to swap back. Their pick would go to Atlanta. Likewise, the only ways they\u2019d draft second is if the Pelicans won the lottery (6.8% chance) and the lottery balls gave the Bucks two, or if the Bucks won the lottery and the Pelicans were blessed with two. Another way of looking at it: if Milwaukee draws a top-four pick, they\u2019d have to swap out of the top four completely 73.1% of the time.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s complicated. But Morgan and I did the math for you, so you know what their shot of eventually landing at any spot actually is, factoring in the swap. Here are the Bucks\u2019 \u201ctrue\u201d lottery odds:<\/p>\n
PickOdds10.0%20.5%31.1%42.1%50.0%60.0%70.0%85.4%95.6%1061.7%1121.5%121.7%13< 0.1%14< 0.1%<\/p>\n
You can look at this in many ways, but here\u2019s one I think is interesting. Yes, had the Bucks finished with a stinkier record than 10th-worst, their odds of falling out of the top 10 would have been significantly lower. But with the swap, since the Pelicans were worse than them this year, the Bucks have a slightly higher chance of moving up from 10. Compare the two situations:<\/p>\n
PickWith SwapWithout Swap10.0%3.0%20.5%3.3%31.1%3.6%42.1%4.0%50.0%0.0%60.0%0.0%70.0%0.0%85.4%0.0%95.6%0.0%1061.7%65.9%1121.5%19.0%121.7%1.2%13< 0.1%< 0.1%14< 0.1%< 0.1%<\/p>\n
The Pelicans\u2019 crappiness\u2014and crucially, the Bucks not being as crappy\u2014gives the Bucks a small chance at drafting eighth or ninth. So while they saw a 10.2% drop in their top-four odds due to the swap, they do have a slightly better chance of moving up from 10, even if it\u2019s only by one spot. Without the swap, they\u2019d have a 13.9% chance of rising but with it, they have a 14.7% chance. The difference is that without the swap, the only place they would move up to would be the top four, while now they could also wind up with eight or nine\u2014picks they couldn\u2019t get otherwise.<\/p>\n
How the lottery actually works<\/p>\n