If early in the third quarter on Wednesday night \u2014 when Madison Square Garden was most miserable \u2014 you put $100 on the Knicks to come back and win Game 4 of the NBA Finals \u2026<\/p>\n
You still wouldn\u2019t be rich enough to sit courtside with Spike, Timmy, Jerry and Taylor, but you could probably book a flight to San Antonio and land Game 5 tickets in the upper bowl.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s because the Knicks\u2019 live odds to win got up as high as 22-1 on DraftKings Sportsbook early in that third quarter window.<\/p>\n
The live betting handle was \u201chuge,\u201d DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic Thursday morning.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven though the game looked like it was out of reach for the Knicks and they probably couldn\u2019t come back, the Knicks followers continued to stay on the team and bet on the team, knowing they\u2019re capable of a comeback, they\u2019ve done it before and they can do it again.<\/p>\n
So that game banged up the sportsbooks a bit?<\/p>\n
\u201cI would say the [bettors] did well, Avello said. \u201cYes.\u201d<\/p>\n
ESPN\u2019s win probability gave them a 0.4 percent chance \u2014 which, at a fair price, would be nearly 250 to 1 odds. But the sportsbooks need to protect themselves, and, as Avello explains, they have seen the Knicks do this \u2014 if not to this extent \u2014 before.<\/p>\n
\u201cLast night\u2019s line is a little difficult to do, because the Knicks have this tendency to come back in a lot of games,\u201d\u00a0 Avello said. \u201cAnd with a whole half to play, you know that whatever number you put up there, bettors are going to take it. Knicks being down 29 \u2014 that\u2019s not an insurmountable lead where they can\u2019t catch up.\u201d<\/p>\n
It was the type of game you\u2019d consider turning off. Until Mike Breen reminds you the Knicks came back from a 22-point deficit with less than eight minutes left in their Eastern Conference finals opener against the Cleveland Cavaliers less than a month ago. In comparison, DraftKings\u2019 odds at that point were 80 to 1.<\/p>\n
Fun fact: the Knicks have turned a 20-point deficit into a win five times in their past 30 playoff games.<\/p>\n
When it comes to betting, that resilient tendency affects the live lines.<\/p>\n
At most sportsbooks, a computer constantly spits out live odds based on models. But there\u2019s also a human trader actively monitoring the game and blending instinct with data.<\/p>\n
For Fanatics Sportsbook, that was Colton Pettit on Wednesday night. Pettit, who got a master\u2019s degree in business analytics at the University of Colorado before learning the job as a part-time trader, said high-profile events put more trusted traders in the seat \u2014 much like an NBA ref might earn officiating duties for a Finals game.<\/p>\n
Pettit shared with The Athletic how his odds swung throughout the night.<\/p>\n
The Knicks entered the game as -130 favorites at his book. A minute in, when Karl-Anthony Towns picked up his second foul, the adjustment was minimal, down to -125. Pettit was more focused on repricing backup center Mitchell Robinson\u2019s props.<\/p>\n
Late in the first quarter, Robinson, having already dented the rim with a pair of hopeless free-throw attempts, was called for a flagrant foul for elbowing Victor Wembanyama. The result: Wemby taunted Robinson and made his two free throws. The score was 39-20, and Fanatics now had the Knicks\u2019 odds at +350.<\/p>\n
After rookie Dylan Harper made three straight Spurs baskets and put his team ahead 71-42 late in the second quarter, the Knicks were +1900 underdogs. The number peaked at +2500 at Fanatics on De\u2019Aaron Fox\u2019s pull-up jumper to make the score 81-52 with 9:27 left in the third.<\/p>\n
From there, the Knicks rallied and rallied, gradually reducing the odds until Jalen Brunson hit a 3-pointer with 2:21 left \u2013 shrinking the deficit to 105-104 and making the line even (-115 on both sides).<\/p>\n
Several dramatic moments later, the Knicks were at +550, before OG Anunoby crashed Brunson\u2019s missed three and tipped it in; they were -800 after that.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was a thrilling game, and a thrilling game to be [working],\u201d said Pettit, who went to the gym afterward to come down from the high.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe game ends, and all that adrenaline just stops. And it\u2019s just over. And we\u2019re kind of sitting there in silence for a few minutes. \u2026 Your heart is racing, and it doesn\u2019t really stop for a while.\u201d He estimates he went to sleep after 1 a.m. Mountain Time.<\/p>\n