{"id":759276,"date":"2026-06-12T16:33:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T16:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/759276\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T16:33:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T16:33:17","slug":"nba-draft-big-board-bullets-forevers-definitive-rankings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/759276\/","title":{"rendered":"NBA Draft Big Board: Bullets Forever\u2019s definitive rankings"},"content":{"rendered":"

In just a few days, the Washington Wizards go on the clock in the 2026 NBA Draft with the chance to select a franchise cornerstone who will lead them for the next decade plus. They chose a great time to hit the lottery, so to speak because this year\u2019s draft class is loaded at the top.<\/p>\n

According to Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA for short), which is the basis for the rankings below, the 2026 draft is stocked with:<\/p>\n

4 players with a YODA score consistent with being the top pick in just about any draft12 players have grades that would usually get them in the top five35 players have \u201cdraftable\u201d grades, which is roughly eight more than \u201cnormal.\u201d<\/p>\n

If the next couple drafts are as weak as they\u2019re reputed to be \u2014 I don\u2019t have the resources to evaluate those classes \u2014 it would seem to be a good time to trade future picks for additional slots in 2026.<\/p>\n

Before I dive into the rankings, a few words on YODA. As previously mentioned, YODA is based purely on publicly available statistics and data. I sometimes watch video here and there, especially if there\u2019s a major mismatch between a player\u2019s ranking by the experts and what YODA is saying.<\/p>\n

For example, when YODA had Tyrese Haliburton number two overall, and the consensus mocks had him going later, I dug in a bit. Ditto when YODA had Jae Crowder as a top pick, and the mocks had him in the second round. The current version of YODA wouldn\u2019t have had Crowder that high, by the way \u2014 since then I\u2019ve tinkered with how the algorithm handles age, level of competition, and physical tools.<\/p>\n

Anyway, YODA uses standard box score stats per 40 minutes, as well as measures and times from the Draft Combine, and then research-derived adjustments for age and level of competition. I used to have an adjustment I called \u201cIntangibles,\u201d which was intended to give a small bump to guys who did things like make All-Defense teams or dings to guys who got hurt.<\/p>\n

Because I believe that a strategy that melds scouting, the kind of intel people like Jonathan Givony gather by traveling everywhere and talking to everyone, and statistical analysis, I\u2019ve dumped the \u201cintangibles\u201d and replaced it with an adjustment based on a player\u2019s rank in the Rookie Scale consensus mock draft. The \u201cscout\u201d score is calibrated to not overwhelm the statistical signal. In practice, it\u2019ll move a player up or down a few slots but won\u2019t bump someone with terrible stats to the top five.<\/p>\n

All that information gets rolled into a single score, which determines the rankings.<\/p>\n

Note: While we\u2019re billing this as \u201cdefinitive rankings,\u201d others at Bullets Forever likely have different opinions, and I reserve the right to make adjustments right up until draft day. I\u2019ve run data on enough players to assemble the board, but I still have more work to do on fringe prospects.<\/p>\n

After each player\u2019s school or international team\/league, I\u2019ve included where they rank in the Rookie Scale Consensus Mock Draft.<\/p>\n

\"Not<\/a><\/p>\n

Not the entity behind Ye Olde Draft Analyzer. Lily Smith\/The Register \/ USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images<\/p>\n

The 2026 NBA Draft According to YODA<\/p>\n

Cameron Boozer, F | Duke | RS: 3\u2014 Every stat-based system has Boozer at the top, and it\u2019s easy to see why \u2014 his stats are great. No real weakness \u2014 he converts inside, hits threes, makes his free throws, rebounds, assists without a lot of turnovers, and doesn\u2019t foul. His 1.7 steals per 40 minutes are high for a forward. He measured well (solid height and plus wingspan), though his athletic scores at the combine were only around average. It\u2019d be nice if he blocked shots. All that said, prospects with similar YODA scores were almost uniformly terrific NBA players.AJ Dybantsa, F | BYU | RS: 1 \u2014 Impressive scorer with good agility (though not good enough times to earn a coveted bonus in YODA) and outstanding leaping ability. Great size and skills \u2014 if he is indeed the number one pick, as the FanDuel odds<\/a> indicate, I suspect Wizards fans would be very happy. In virtually any draft, he\u2019d be the top pick.Caleb Wilson, F | UNC | RS: 4 \u2014 Long and athletic, efficient offense despite shooting just 25.9% on threes. Wilson\u2019s true calling card is defense, which shows in his rebounding and defensive playmaking. In a normal draft, an NBA team would be happy to pick him first overall. Someone will get him third or fourth, most likley.Darryn Peterson, G | Kansas | RS: 2 \u2014 Big guard with solid athletic tools (he didn\u2019t pop at the combine) who had an up and down year at Kansas and still posted numbers consistent with being the top pick in most drafts. This guy\u2019s good, though YODA does estimate a step down from the first three to Peterson.Keaton Wagler, G | Illinois | RS: 5 \u2014 Finally, YODA and the experts agree on something! Wagler\u2019s numbers reveal a superb shooter (39.7% from deep) who had some issues finishing inside (sub-50% on twos). He rebounded well for a guard and produced assists without elevated turnovers. A concern: anemic steals (just 1.1 per 40) and no blocks to speak of.Darius Acuff Jr., G | Arkansas | RS: 6 \u2014 What did YODA just mooch these rankings from Rookie Scalle? I\u2019d heard alleged that Acuff is too small to excel in the NBA, and then he went and scored right about average for size at the combine. Strengths: great shooting (44% on threes), playmaking without turnovers. He\u2019s an offensive engine. Weaknesses: very low steals and blocks \u2014 often signals of defensive effort and awareness, and of applied athleticism.Allen Graves, F | Santa Clara | RS: 23 \u2014 Kind of a value Boozer. Makes shots from everywhere. Good rebounds and assists. Tons of steals (3.4 per 40) and 1.7 blocks. He played against relatively weaker competition, so he needed to dominate, which he did. The concern: poor agility scores at the combine calls into question his ability to step up to NBA competition. So, while I kinda understand the No. 23 ranking, YODA still think he\u2019s better than that.Kingston Flemings, G | Houston | RS: 8 \u2014 Small guard with elite athletic tools \u2014 blazing speed, great leaper. Good statistical profile \u2014 strong shooting, production across the board. Despite the diminutive stature, he looks likely to be a good NBA player.Brayden Burries, G | Arizona | RS: 10 \u2014 SHOOTER \u2014 56% on twos, 39% on threes, 80% on free throws. Plus solid rebounding for a guard, some playmaking, and 2.0 steals per 40. He\u2019d be top five in most drafts, at least according to YODA>Morez Johnson, C | Michigan | RS: 16 \u2014 The consensus favors his teammates Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, but YODA prefers Johnson\u2019s plus athletic tools, good shooting (including flashes of three-point range), rebounding, and defensive playmaking.Mikel Brown Jr., G | Louisville | RS: 7 \u2014 Impressive athlete with a good rebounds and assists. The offensive efficiency was relatively low, his three-point shooting was meh, and the assists came with elevated turnovers. He posted good-not-great steal numbers for someone with his athletic tools. That\u2019s all in terms relative to his competitors \u2014 he still had a YODA score that would have put him in the top 5-7 of most drafts.Labaron Philon Jr., G | Alabama | RS: 14 \u2014 Superb shooter and playmaker who had a 2:1 assists-to-turnovers ratio. He was efficient and high usage \u2014 both a volume scorer and a guy who set up his teammates. The concern: a subpar combine where his agility times were bad enough to earn a ding, and his vertical was below average.Sergio de Larrea, G | Valenica | RS: 33 \u2014 The first major disagreement between YODA and consensus, and he could move some if combine scores become available. Looking at the numbers, I\u2019m not sure why consensus is so low on de Larrea. He didn\u2019t shoot great in Euro League, but he rebounded (9.6 per 40), assisted, and got steals and blocks. The statistical markers for athleticism are all positive. Potential negatives: just 34.5% on threes and 70.0% from the free throw line, plus 3.3 turnovers per 40. Of course, that was still almost a 2:1 ast\/tov ratio.Yaxel Lendeborg, F | Michigan | RS: 12 \u2014 Super production across the board \u2014 outstanding efficiency and good defensive numbers, and he\u2019s big for a forward, suggesting he could succeed as an ultra-skilled center. He\u2019s this low because he\u2019s already 23-years-old, which brings into question whether his production was a result of being a great player or dominated because he was 2-4 years older than most of his competitors. His measured vertical at the combine wasn\u2019t good.Ebuka Okorie, G | Stanford | RS: 24 \u2014 Efficient volume scorer who was also willing to setup teammates, do some rebounding, and defend a bit. Not eye-popping athletic tools, but big, quick, good leaper. Interesting prospect.Trevon Brazile, F | Arkansas | RS: 40 \u2014 Another older prospect (23.5 on draft day), but he\u2019s huge, agile, and leaps great. He converts inside (65% on twos), rebounds, and defends like crazy (1.9 steals and 2.0 blocks per 40). If he\u2019s really available in the second round, it would be worth buying a pick to take him.Christian Anderson, G | Texas Tech | RS: 20 \u2014 Three things pop out; shooting (excellent), assists (very good), steals (decent). Okay, a fourth thing \u2014 the assists came without elevated turnovers \u2014 a 2:1 ast\/tov ratio.Richie Saunders, G | BYU | RS: 38 \u2014 Another older prospect \u2014 Saunders is almost 25 already. If a good team is looking for a plug-and-play reserve, he might fit the bill \u2014 good size, excellent shooting, strong production across the board.Hannes Steinbach, C | Washington | RS: 14 \u2014 Rebounds \u2014 especially the offensive variety, converts inside, even hit a few threes on low volume. Doesn\u2019t block many shots. Almost no assists.Zuby Ejiofor, C | St. John\u2019s | RS: 28 \u2014 Got a YODA bonus for his vertical, which is important because he\u2019s undersized to play center \u2014 which he\u2019ll have to do in the NBA. High assists for a center (4.7 per 40), plus blocked shots. Assists from a big man are often signal defensive awareness.Cameron Carr, W | Baylor | RS: 18 \u2014 Big and hyper-athletic. Decent shooting from three and 60+% on twos. Rebounding numbers are solid, and he got nearly two blocks per 40 as a wing, which is very good. Just 1.0 steal per 40.Nate Ament, F | Tennesee | RS: 11 \u2014 Some mocks have him going in the top 10, though I\u2019m not sure why. He shot just 43% on twos (not good), and 33% on threes. He got some rebounds and assists, though the board work wasn\u2019t dominant, and the assists came with an almost equal number of turnovers.Koa Peat, F | Arizona | RS: 25 \u2014 Solid prospect with a decent chance of being a good pro if he works hard in the right place.Dailyn Swain, W | Texas | RS: 23 \u2014 Solid numbers across the board. I would have liked to see better three-point shooting and fewer turnovers. I suspect he could be productive in the right NBA role.Meleek Thomas, G | Arkansas | RS: 27 \u2014 A mixed bag of messages in the numbers. Slow with a good three-point percentage, but trouble converting from two-point range. Meh rebounding and assists, but 2.0 steals per 40 \u2014 and very few turnovers. He profiles as a 3&D type, if he can bring the athleticism necessary to play strong defense.Duke Miles, G | Vanderbilt | RS: 66 \u2014 I know this is probably crazy. The first year I ran YODA, the algorithm fell in love with a small senior guard who the Spurs picked late in the second round. He broke his foot, went overseas and never made it back to the NBA. Miles might be that guy this year. He\u2019s 24 already and he shot just 34.8% from three. But he rebounded, assisted, and produced loads of steals (3.5 per 40 \u2014 highest in the draft).Chris Cenac Jr., C | Houston | RS: 22 \u2014 Agile big man with some shooting ability from three. Solid rebounder. Almost never got the free throw line. Didn\u2019t block shots.Isaiah Evans, W | Duke | RS: 26 \u2014 Slow, solid shooting, some all-around production. Duke players have tended to perform well at the NBA level, so he\u2019s a candidate to out-perform where YODA has him rated.Izaiyah Nelson, C | South Florida | RS: 50 \u2014 Almost 23, but Nelson plugs into a rim-running, rebounding, defending role immediately. He averaged 2.4 steals and 2.1 blocks. Just limit him to dunking and getting shots from the offensive glass.Tarris Reed, C | Connecticut | RS: 31 \u2014 Rebounds, blocks, finishing inside.Bruce Thornton, G | Ohio St. | RS: 45 \u2014 Poor agility times at the combine, but great shooting.Aday Mara, C | Michigan | RS: 9 \u2014 Outstanding size, strong rebounding and blocks. He also measured out as a poor athlete (by NBA standards) and he committed lots of turnovers and fouls. While of similar size, he isn\u2019t like Zach Edey, whose agility was solid for a big.Ugonna Onyenso, C | Virginia | RS: 41 \u2014 Long, agile, great shot blocking (6.3 per 40).Tobe Awaka, C | Arizona | RS: 64 \u2014 Grabbed 17.4 rebounds per 40 but didn\u2019t block many shots.Tamin Lipsey, G | Iowa St. | RS: 61 \u2014 Kinda impressive that he could get this high at 23-years-old while shooting just 31.4% from three. He did with better than 3:1 ast\/tov ratio and high steals. Interesting prospect for a team looking for a backup guard.<\/p>\n

So, that\u2019s the list of guys with draftable scores in YODA this year. It could shuffle around a bit. Here\u2019s a list of prospects with borderline YODA scores \u2014 close enough to think they might still be NBA contributors:<\/p>\n

Baba Miller, C, Cincinnati \u2014 RS: 34Joshua Jefferson, F, Iowa St. \u2014 RS: 32Malik Reneau, F, Miami (FL) \u2014 RS: 75Karim Lopez, F, NZ Breakers (New Zealand) \u2014 RS: 13Henri Veesaar, C, UNC \u2014 RS: 29Tyler Bilodeau, F, UCLA \u2014 RS: 53Dillon Mitchell, F, St. John\u2019s \u2014 RS; 42Jack Kayil, Alba Berlin, German BBL \u2014 RS: 46Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa \u2014 RS: 19Ja\u2019Kobi Gillespie, G, Tennessee \u2014 RS: 44Braden Smith, G, Purdue \u2014 RS: 37Malique Lewis, W, SE Melbourne, Australian NBL \u2014 RS: 72Rafael Castro, C, George Washington \u2014 RS: 63Ryan Conwell, G, Louisville \u2014 RS: 35Bryce Hopkins, F, St. John\u2019s \u2014 RS: 57Kylan Boswell, G, Illinois \u2014 RS: 54Quadir Copeland, W, NC State \u2014 RS: 68<\/p>\n

Let me know in the comments if there\u2019s someone you\u2019re interested in that doesn\u2019t appear above. I\u2019ll try to loop back and answer questions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In just a few days, the Washington Wizards go on the clock in the 2026 NBA Draft with…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":759277,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3780],"tags":[7,6,12,682,468,3920,3892,683],"class_list":["post-759276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-washington-wizards","tag-basketball","tag-nba","tag-nba-draft","tag-washington","tag-washington-wizards","tag-washington-wizards-statistical-analysis","tag-washingtonwizards","tag-wizards"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116738103927743534","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/759276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=759276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/759276\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/759277"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=759276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=759276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=759276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}