Should the Hawks keep their eighth overall pick, they\u2019ll have an opportunity to draft one of a handful of \u2018second tier\u2019 prospects in one of the most hyped draft classes in a long time.<\/p>\n
Today, we\u2019ll be taking a look at Keaton Wagler, a 19-year-old 6-foot-5 guard from Illinois that has rocketed into the lottery discussion over the past 12 months in the very strong 2026 NBA Draft. In his lone college season, he averaged 17.9 points, 4.2 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game while shooting 45% from the field, 40% from three, and 80% from the free throw line.<\/p>\n
Wagler is a silky ball handler and a savvy pick-and-roll operator, but he comes with questions about his high-end athleticism, off-ball engagement, and fit in an NBA team defense. Let\u2019s dive into the good and bad in a player the Hawks could still see on the board after the first seven picks.<\/p>\n
Keaton Wagler isn\u2019t a point guard by trade, but he operated on the ball as the focal point of the Illinois offense due to his offensive gifts. Like a lot of right-handed players, he prefers to go left to get to his shots. Still, he\u2019s a steady operator on the ball who can comfortably change pace like a point guard \u2014 whether pushing in transition or resetting the action in halfcourt sets.<\/p>\n
Although his first step isn\u2019t overly explosive, he can self-create at an NBA-level already with an array of hesitation dribbles, crossover and step backs pull up jumpers. He does well to get skinny dribbling in traffic and is great at keeping his dribble alive even when pressured. He shot 40% from three on 5.9 attempts per game, and with his smooth shooting mechanics and deep range, that mark was no fluke:<\/p>\n
When he gets all the way to the rim, he\u2019s skillful finisher with either hand \u2014 although his 58% scoring efficiency at the rim could stand to improve. Still, the frequency with which he gets to the rim off the dribble is among the best in the class, and with some added bulk on his frame, one can imagine his conversion rate on those attempts will increase:<\/p>\n
Additionally, he\u2019ll step into the league as an advanced catch-and-shoot artist already with the ability to find gaps in the defense around the arc.<\/p>\n
But one area of improvement going forward will be his efficiency from floater range, especially considering the trees that exist on NBA teams at the next level. He doesn\u2019t look comfortable lofting balls higher when shooting from just outside the restricted area, and per databallr, he shot below 50% from between three and seven feet from the rim.<\/p>\n
Other than that, his Illinois shot profile is readymade for 2020s basketball \u2014 very little mid-range fat and a heavy dose of rim (35% of shot attempts within five feet) and three (48% of shot attempts). He also sported a healthy .476 free throw rate in his one-and-done season with the Illini. These factors, plus of course being an elite shot-maker, helped him manage a 60% true shooting percentage in his one-and-done season.<\/p>\n
Wagler isn\u2019t a transcendent passer or anything, but he sees the floor well and typically makes the correct pass when needed. Last season, he averaged 7.6 assists per 100 possessions against just 3.2 turnovers per 100 possessions \u2014 a healthy 2.4:1 ratio. He should settle into being a secondary playmaker at the next level with some upside on a team with a primary creator already in place.<\/p>\n
Handling ball pressure is a big asset for Wagler, and you rarely see silly turnovers or misreads when doubles come his direction. His pick-and-roll game is advanced with the ability to hit bigs with pocket passes or spray passes to the corner if defenses over-help. But his biggest asset is the ability to find space for his step back three-point, and his reading of screen coverages combined with his shooting off the dribble will create real gravity to open up his teammates.<\/p>\n
I do worry about his tunnel vision when driving into the lane. He\u2019s not a very good passer out of drives or from under the rim at the moment, and that combined with his issues finishing through traffic could spell trouble initially at the next level:<\/p>\n
Still, the overall offensive package is worthy of him going top 5 in my humble opinion. He\u2019s a player that blends scoring, relocation for kickout threes, and playmaking in an enticing package for scouts and bloggers alike.<\/p>\n
Wagler measured 6\u20195\u201d without shoes at the NBA Combine with just a 6\u20196.25\u201d wingspan underlining his average-at-best measurables. There has been a lot of handwringing about his lack of physicality and explosion \u2014 and these are real concerns \u2014 but he did register a 36-inch max vertical, 11.05-second lane agility run, and 3.00-second shuttle run which were all strong marks for guards of his general stature.<\/p>\n
At the moment, he\u2019s not quick enough to guard NBA point guards and he\u2019s not strong enough to switch and credibly guard bigger NBA athletes. But in time, and with a concerted effort in his strength and conditioning program to fill out his slight frame, he could be a positive player on this end even if not a high-level one.<\/p>\n
Defensively, his lack of strength is serious issue at the moment. He\u2019s often bullied when defending drives more often than you\u2019d like to see from a wing defender:<\/p>\n
But he can sometimes use his wiry 188-pound frame to cause disruption despite low steals numbers. He processes plays on the defensive end rather well and is typically in the right position to make plays.<\/p>\n
He manages to affect some shots both when closing out on the perimeter and even sometimes in rim protection duty (0.7 blocks per 100 possessions). I think he\u2019ll eventually be a solid enough team defender with enough awareness to rotate and help when needed. But at the moment, he\u2019s fairly prone to lapses on this end.<\/p>\n
The upper body frailty shows up when navigating screens as well. He\u2019ll have to get a lot stronger so as to not get walled off by basic on-ball screens.<\/p>\n
The defensive motor can run a bit hot and cold, especially when defending off the ball, so keeping him engaged possession after possession will be a focus for his next coaching staff. But there have never been any red flags over his work ethic or competitiveness. I do believe he\u2019ll work his way into being a team defender that doesn\u2019t get picked on in time.<\/p>\n
Wagler was a high usage player on team that stormed into the final four, playing in all 37 games and averaging 34 minutes per contest. I think this heavy workload sapped his ability to make plays on the defensive end, especially for a player who isn\u2019t fully physically mature.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, he\u2019s not a particularly impactful or versatile defender coming into the league \u2014 one who will likely be assigned to the weakest opposing perimeter player. But there is a development path there for him to turn some heads defensively down the road.<\/p>\n
Possible fit on the Hawks<\/p>\n
I won\u2019t mince words: if Wagler is sitting there available when the Hawks draft at 8, in my mind he\u2019ll be the best player available \u2014 barring something crazy happening. He won\u2019t go top 4, and there\u2019s a chance all of the Clippers, Nets, and Kings all pass on him for high players on their respective boards, but I believe Wagler\u2019s upside is as high as anyone\u2019s in this draft not named Boozer, Dybantsa, Peterson or Wilson.<\/p>\n
I try not to get too caught up in player comparisons, but he is in a similar mold to CJ McCollum \u2014 a two-guard with the on-ball creative skills to be an efficient 20-plus per-game scorer in the NBA. But his size and playmaking both have projectable potential beyond that of the veteran who buoyed the Hawks down the stretch of last season.<\/p>\n
Although the Knicks\u2019 title run has made the first-round series against them seem less disastrous, Atlanta could still use more ball handling and pull up shooting. Wagler would be a great fit in the backcourt with Dyson Daniels, who is obviously more pass-first and much more defensive-minded in that duo.<\/p>\n
In total, among the \u2018next tier\u2019 of guys including Mikel Brown Jr., Aday Mara, and Kingston Flemings, Wagler\u2019s skillful package on offense gives him the edge on my big board.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Should the Hawks keep their eighth overall pick, they\u2019ll have an opportunity to draft one of a handful…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":762572,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3776],"tags":[740,676,208,3874,7,677,6,12],"class_list":["post-762571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-atlanta-hawks","tag-analysis","tag-atlanta","tag-atlanta-hawks","tag-atlantahawks","tag-basketball","tag-hawks","tag-nba","tag-nba-draft"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116760434689355063","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/762571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=762571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/762571\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/762572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=762571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=762571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=762571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}