{"id":76436,"date":"2025-06-04T15:19:12","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T15:19:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/76436\/"},"modified":"2025-06-04T15:19:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T15:19:12","slug":"2025-nba-finals-preview-pacers-thunder-key-matchups-the-biggest-x-factor-schedule-and-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/76436\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 NBA Finals preview: Pacers-Thunder key matchups, the biggest X-factor, schedule and prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After an 82-game marathon, followed by three grueling rounds of postseason competition, we now approach the finish line of the 2024-25 NBA season. The Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder \u2014 the West\u2019s No. 1 seed, and the top overall seed in the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:1;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/playoffs\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:postseason bracket;cpos:1;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">postseason bracket<\/a> \u2014 will take on the Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers in the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:2;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/topic\/playoffs\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:2025 NBA Finals;cpos:2;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2025 NBA Finals<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the first postseason meeting between the two franchises. The Thunder enter looking for the franchise\u2019s first title in its Oklahoma City era, and first since the former Seattle SuperSonics won it all back in 1979. Indiana similarly heads into the Finals looking to break a lengthy championship drought: The Pacers haven\u2019t raised a title banner since the great Slick Leonard led them to three ABA championships in four years between 1970 and 1973, before the ABA-NBA merger.<\/p>\n<p>NBA Finals previewWhat we know about the Thunder<\/p>\n<p>That they\u2019ve been the best team in the NBA since October\u2019s opening tip.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City had the NBA\u2019s second-best <a data-i13n=\"cpos:13;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?Season=2023-24&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=W\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:record;cpos:13;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">record<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:14;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?Season=2023-24&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=NET_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:net rating;cpos:14;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">net rating<\/a> during the 2023-24 season, and were one of only two teams to finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. (The other, the Boston Celtics, <a data-i13n=\"cpos:15;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/can-the-celtics-repeat-as-champs-in-todays-nba-why-boston-will-remain-in-the-title-picture-180230131.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:won the NBA championship;cpos:15;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">won the NBA championship<\/a>.) And then they brought back all of their most important players, traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what I posited as the Thunder\u2019s best-case scenario when <a data-i13n=\"cpos:16;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/okc-thunder-2024-25-season-preview-best-in-the-west-or-will-young-stars-stumble-140026792.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:I previewed their season all the way back at the beginning of October;cpos:16;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">I previewed their season all the way back at the beginning of October<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>The newcomers function exactly as envisioned, resulting in the Thunder fielding top-two units on both ends and proving to be the class of the league from the opening tip. [Shai Gilgeous-Alexander] wins MVP, [Jalen Williams] and Chet [Holmgren] earn All-Star nods, and the rest of the supporting cast earns Bricktown\u2019s undying affection. Oklahoma City returns to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012 \u2014 and wins the franchise\u2019s first championship since the move from Seattle.<\/p>\n<p>At the risk of spraining something by patting myself on the back \u2026 kind of nailed it?<\/p>\n<p>The Thunder finished second in points scored per possession and first in points allowed per possession, according to <a data-i13n=\"cpos:17;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Cleaning the Glass;cpos:17;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Cleaning the Glass<\/a>. Hartenstein averaged a double-double to go with nearly four assists and a block in just 27.9 minutes per game, shooting 58% from the field and holding opponents to <a data-i13n=\"cpos:18;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/defensive-impact?CF=DEF_RIM_FGA*GE*150&amp;PerMode=Totals&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=DEF_RIM_FG_PCT\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:56.3% shooting at the rim;cpos:18;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">56.3% shooting at the rim<\/a>. Caruso knocked down 3-pointers at a league-average clip on higher volume than Josh Giddey had, posted a near-4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and was arguably the most disruptive individual defender in the NBA on a per-minute basis. That\u2019ll work.<\/p>\n<p>Gilgeous-Alexander, the league\u2019s premier driver and most elusive scorer, did win MVP. Williams, a picture-perfect do-it-all complement, did make the All-Star (and All-NBA, and All-Defensive) team. Holmgren very well might\u2019ve joined them at All-Star Weekend if not for an early-season hip fracture; he\u2019d return in February and finish the regular season averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks per game while shooting 37% from 3 on more than 100 attempts. (There have only been three such seasons in NBA history. Holmgren, two years into his career, <a data-i13n=\"cpos:19;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/stathead.com\/tiny\/O0fm2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:has two of them;cpos:19;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">has two of them<\/a>. Unicorn stuff.) The rest of the rotation, from defensive menaces Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace to energy-injecting wings Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, play their roles to perfection.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>The results have been historic: the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:20;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/stathead.com\/tiny\/QZocK\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:seventh team ever to win 68 games;cpos:20;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">seventh team ever to win 68 games<\/a>; the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:21;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/stathead.com\/tiny\/SmBIF\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:highest average margin of victory ever;cpos:21;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">highest average margin of victory ever<\/a>; a defense that profiles as one of the stingiest <a data-i13n=\"cpos:22;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lastnightinbasketball.com\/adjusted-efficiency\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:since the ABA-NBA merger;cpos:22;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">since the ABA-NBA merger<\/a>; the best era-adjusted efficiency differential since the \u201996 Bulls; the top overall seed in the 2025 postseason.<\/p>\n<p>After making quick work of the Grizzlies in Round 1, Oklahoma City survived a titanic test from Nikola Joki\u0107 and his champion Nuggets in a seven-game second-round war before outclassing the Timberwolves in the conference finals. The Thunder went 12-4 in the tougher conference, outscoring opponents by <a data-i13n=\"cpos:23;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?CF=W*GE*12&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=NET_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:11.2 points per 100 possessions;cpos:23;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">11.2 points per 100 possessions<\/a> \u2014 on pace for the best net rating of any champion since the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:24;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?CF=W*GE*12&amp;Season=2016-17&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=NET_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Year 1 KD Warriors;cpos:24;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Year 1 KD Warriors<\/a>. Provided, of course, they spend the next two weeks looking like they have for the last eight months: like one of the best teams we\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n<p>What we know about the Pacers<\/p>\n<p>That they are damn sure not a fluke.<\/p>\n<p>Plenty of pundits dismissed Indiana\u2019s run to the 2024 Eastern Conference finals as a product of merely taking advantage of multiple opponents missing injured stars. That carried over into the 2025 postseason, as Indiana faced a Bucks team missing Damian Lillard, and a Cavaliers side that saw Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, De\u2019Andre Hunter and later Donovan Mitchell all miss time.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>The thing about that, though, as Pacers coach Rick Carlisle noted after knocking off the Knicks: \u201cYou still gotta win the games.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Pacers did that, often in <a data-i13n=\"cpos:25;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/article\/nba-playoffs-tyrese-haliburtons-ot-game-winner-finishes-off-bucks-collapse-as-pacers-advance-010336854.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:thrilling;cpos:25;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">thrilling<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:26;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/breaking-news\/article\/cavs-collapse-as-pacers-surge-to-stunning-game-2-win-on-tyrese-haliburtons-3-with-11-seconds-left-015043528.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:heartstopping;cpos:26;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">heartstopping<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:27;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/breaking-news\/article\/pacers-knicks-after-another-shocking-late-comeback-it-must-be-asked--how-do-the-pacers-keep-doing-this-064312789.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:fashion;cpos:27;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fashion<\/a>, to build on last spring\u2019s success and put themselves in position to move on to the championship round. And after New York <a data-i13n=\"cpos:28;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/article\/knicks-vs-pacers-game-6-tyrese-haliburton-said-theres-no-need-to-panic--but-did-new-york-figure-something-out-150046259.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:made them look uncomfortable;cpos:28;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">made them look uncomfortable<\/a> in a <a data-i13n=\"cpos:29;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/article\/pacers-vs-knicks-do-or-die-mentality-fuels-karl-anthony-towns-jalen-brunson-as-new-york-lives-to-fight-another-day-062951658.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:Game 5 win;cpos:29;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Game 5 win<\/a>, they simply returned to their first principles \u2014 speed, ball pressure, body and ball movement, sharing \u2014 and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:30;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/breaking-news\/article\/knicks-vs-pacers-indiana-stays-true-to-itself-to-punch-ticket-to-nba-finals-063249753.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:finally broke the Knicks;cpos:30;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">finally broke the Knicks<\/a> \u2026 just like they\u2019ve done to damn near everybody else for six months.<\/p>\n<p>After a rough 10-15 start plagued by injuries to starters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, among other contributors, the Pacers have gone 52-21 \u2014 more victories in that stretch than any team save their Finals opponents. They have the NBA\u2019s <a data-i13n=\"cpos:31;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pbpstats.com\/totals\/nba\/team?Season=2024-25&amp;SeasonType=All&amp;FromDate=2024-12-09&amp;StartType=All\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:No. 5 offense;cpos:31;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">No. 5 offense<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:32;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pbpstats.com\/totals\/nba\/opponent?Season=2024-25&amp;SeasonType=All&amp;FromDate=2024-12-09&amp;StartType=All\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:No. 9 defense;cpos:32;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">No. 9 defense<\/a> in that span \u2014 the culmination of a dramatic two-way turnaround from the summer of 2021, when the Pacers brought Carlisle back to helm a rebuild that went from 25 wins to the Finals in just four seasons.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWell, if you have the right player to build around,\u201d Carlisle said, \u201cit can happen much faster than you think.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>The Pacers found the right player to build around on <a data-i13n=\"cpos:33;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/report-kings-trade-tyrese-haliburton-buddy-hield-for-pacers-star-domantas-sabonis-184124770.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:February 8, 2022;cpos:33;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">February 8, 2022<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Haliburton lives to push the pace, hunting hit-ahead passes and opportunities to probe for early, easy offense; his superpower, though, is managing to inject that kind of flow, pace and energy into the game while maintaining one of the lowest turnover rates among high-volume ball-handlers. With Haliburton at the controls, Indiana has finished <a data-i13n=\"cpos:34;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?Season=2023-24&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=OFF_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:second;cpos:34;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">second<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:35;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?Season=2024-25&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=OFF_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:ninth;cpos:35;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">ninth<\/a> in offensive efficiency in the last two seasons \u2014 the first time the Pacers have fielded consecutive top-10 offenses since the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:36;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?Season=1998-99&amp;SeasonType=Regular+Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=OFF_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:1998-99;cpos:36;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">1998-99<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:37;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/advanced?Season=1999-00&amp;SeasonType=Regular+Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=OFF_RATING\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:1999-2000;cpos:37;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">1999-2000<\/a> seasons. (Which, not coincidentally, was the last time the Pacers made the Finals.)<\/p>\n<p>Pacers president Kevin Pritchard and general manager Chad Buchanan saw what kind of pilot Haliburton was and set about building a sound-barrier-breaking spaceship around him, retrofitting the roster to surround him with sprinters and shooters. That resulted in a team capable of getting buckets in bunches \u2026 but one that still struggled to get stops, lacked size on the perimeter and was missing a credible star-caliber second weapon.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd then, look,\u201d Carlisle said. \u201cThe Siakam trade took things to another level.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s almost unbelievable <a data-i13n=\"cpos:38;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/article\/its-what-hes-here-to-do-why-pascal-siakam-is-the-perfect-fit-for-pacers-team-two-wins-from-nba-finals-145650877.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:how perfectly Pascal Siakam has fit;cpos:38;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">how perfectly Pascal Siakam has fit<\/a> into precisely the holes that the Pacers needed filling: an All-Star comfortable working off of Haliburton or pairing with him in the two-man game, exploiting mismatches against smaller defenders in the post or slower defenders with his face-up game, running the floor like a greyhound to create easy baskets for the offense and unyielding stress for the opposing defense, making the extra pass and calling his own number depending on what the game calls for. He does all of that while playing solid defense across multiple positions, never turning the ball over, and providing the kind of hard-won leadership to which even Indiana\u2019s longest-tenured pros can turn.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou brought in a champion,\u201d Pacers center Myles Turner said. \u201cYou brought in someone that\u2019s been there before.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>They all know what it\u2019s like now: They\u2019ve faced the pressure, they\u2019ve met the moment, and they\u2019ve reached the highest level the sport has to offer. Four more wins and they\u2019re immortal. Getting those wins against the best team in the NBA will be the toughest challenge Indiana has faced yet. Get them, though, and not a soul alive will be able to form their mouth to call these Pacers a fluke again.<\/p>\n<p>Head-to-head<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City won the regular-season series, 2-0.<\/p>\n<p>In the first meeting, on the day after Christmas, with Indiana just <a data-i13n=\"cpos:39;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/here-come-the-pacers-is-their-resurgence-for-real-155921588.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:starting to turn things around;cpos:39;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">starting to turn things around<\/a> after its early-season morass, the Thunder battled back from a 22-7 deficit to score a <a data-i13n=\"cpos:40;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/boxscores\/202412260IND.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:120-114 win;cpos:40;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">120-114 win<\/a> at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. It was one of Haliburton\u2019s quietest nights of the season \u2014 just 4 points on 2-for-6 shooting, though he did add 8 assists against just 1 turnover in 35 minutes \u2014 as Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault <a data-i13n=\"cpos:41;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/game\/okc-vs-ind-0022400410\/box-score?dir=D&amp;sort=matchupMinutesSort&amp;type=matchups\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:dispatched Dort and Wallace;cpos:41;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">dispatched Dort and Wallace<\/a> to shadow him all over the court.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Indiana responded by going to <a data-i13n=\"cpos:42;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/article\/knicks-vs-pacers-game-6-tyrese-haliburton-said-theres-no-need-to-panic--but-did-new-york-figure-something-out-150046259.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:its Plan B;cpos:42;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">its Plan B<\/a>: getting Haliburton off the ball, kicking it to Nembhard, and allowing him to attack 4-on-4 in a more spaced-out floor. The Pacers were still able to generate offense \u2014 six double-digit scorers, led by a 23-9-7 night from Nembhard \u2014 but just had no answer for Gilgeous-Alexander, who torched them for 45 points (11 of which came in the final 3:42, as OKC closed on a 17-7 run) to go with 8 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 steal and just 1 turnover in 38 minutes of work \u2014 a top-15 individual performance of the entire NBA season, according to <a data-i13n=\"cpos:43;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/stathead.com\/tiny\/XAHwQ\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:John Hollinger\u2019s Game Score metric;cpos:43;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">John Hollinger\u2019s Game Score metric<\/a>, which aims to provide a rough estimate of how productive a particular player was on a particular night.<\/p>\n<p>The rematch came in late March, and was a nip-and-tuck battle \u2026 for about a quarter and a half.<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City ripped off a 20-5 run over a four-minute span just before halftime to blow the game open, held Indiana\u2019s starters at bay to open the second half, and then delivered another four-minute 19-7 burst \u2014 with SGA off the floor, in J-Dub-led small-ball lineups \u2014 to push the game out of reach. The Thunder led by as many as 25 in the fourth quarter, which Haliburton, Siakam, Turner and Nesmith sat out completely, and cruised to a <a data-i13n=\"cpos:44;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/boxscores\/202503290OKC.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:132-111 win;cpos:44;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">132-111 win<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>The 133.3 offensive rating that OKC posted in the win marked Indiana\u2019s <a data-i13n=\"cpos:45;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/team\/12\/gamelogs#tab-four_factors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:fourth-worst defensive outing of the season;cpos:45;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">fourth-worst defensive outing of the season<\/a>. And if you want to get a sense of just how frightening this Thunder team is \u2026 it wasn\u2019t even a <a data-i13n=\"cpos:46;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/team\/21\/gamelogs?season=2024#tab-four_factors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:top-20 offensive night for them;cpos:46;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">top-20 offensive night for them<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Matchup to watch<\/p>\n<p>Indiana\u2019s turnover avoidance vs. Oklahoma City\u2019s turnover creation<\/p>\n<p>In both the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:47;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:regular season;cpos:47;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">regular season<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:48;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors?season=2024&amp;seasontype=playoffs&amp;start=10\/1\/2024&amp;end=10\/15\/2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:playoffs;cpos:48;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">playoffs<\/a>, no team has forced turnovers on a higher share of opponents\u2019 possessions than the Thunder, whose roster-wide commitment to intense physicality and ball pressure has produced one of the best defenses in recent memory. In both the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:49;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:regular season;cpos:49;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">regular season<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:50;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors?season=2024&amp;seasontype=playoffs&amp;start=04\/19\/2025&amp;end=10\/15\/2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:playoffs;cpos:50;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">playoffs<\/a>, the Pacers have owned the NBA\u2019s third-lowest turnover rate \u2014 a massive reason why, since they got healthy in early December, they\u2019ve also owned one of the five or so <a data-i13n=\"cpos:51;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors?season=2024&amp;seasontype=regseason&amp;start=12\/9\/2024&amp;end=10\/15\/2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:best;cpos:51;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">best<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:52;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/fourfactors?season=2024&amp;seasontype=playoffs&amp;start=12\/9\/2024&amp;end=10\/15\/2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:offenses;cpos:52;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">offenses<\/a> in the league.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Strength, meet strength.<\/p>\n<p>Haliburton\u2019s superpower as a lead initiator \u2014 one he put on full display in <a data-i13n=\"cpos:53;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/breaking-news\/article\/knicks-vs-pacers-tyrese-haliburtons-flawless-game-4-showed-exactly-how-much-he-means-to-indiana--this-guy-is-unbelievable-061637542.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:his brilliant Game 4 performance;cpos:53;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">his brilliant Game 4 performance<\/a> against New York \u2014 is his <a data-i13n=\"cpos:54;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/posts\/putting-tyrese-125140801\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:exceptional ability;cpos:54;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">exceptional ability<\/a> to make audacious passes at breakneck speed without giving the ball to the other team. Over the last three seasons, <a data-i13n=\"cpos:55;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/stathead.com\/tiny\/rjDD8\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:only three players;cpos:55;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">only three players<\/a> who have played at least 5,000 total minutes have assisted on more than 40% of their teammates\u2019 baskets while turning it over on fewer than 15% of their team\u2019s offensive possessions: Nikola Joki\u0107, Luka Don\u0107ic and Haliburton \u2014 who has the lowest turnover rate (11.7%) of the bunch.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI take pride in taking care of the ball,\u201d Haliburton said after Indiana\u2019s Game 4 win over the Knicks. \u201cI&#8217;d rather do really anything else on the basketball court than turn the ball over.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"(Joseph Raines\/Yahoo Sports Illustration)\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"standard-img\" style=\"color:transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/603533f0-40f5-11f0-9f9d-c2f1a8bd611f.jpeg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>(Joseph Raines\/Yahoo Sports Illustration)<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City, conversely, would love nothing more than to take the ball away from you. The Thunder led the NBA in <a data-i13n=\"cpos:56;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/traditional?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=STL\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:steals;cpos:56;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">steals<\/a>, <a data-i13n=\"cpos:57;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/hustle?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=D&amp;sort=DEFLECTIONS\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:deflections;cpos:57;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">deflections<\/a>, <a data-i13n=\"cpos:58;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/hustle?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=D&amp;sort=DEF_LOOSE_BALLS_RECOVERED\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:loose balls recovered on defense;cpos:58;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">loose balls recovered on defense<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:59;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/misc?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=PTS_OFF_TOV\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:points scored off of turnovers;cpos:59;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">points scored off of turnovers<\/a> this season, and tied for third in <a data-i13n=\"cpos:60;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/context#tab-offense_transition\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:points per possession added in transition;cpos:60;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">points per possession added in transition<\/a>. They want to harass you into making a mistake, and then make you pay for it \u2014 over and over and over again.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>OKC didn\u2019t force a hailstorm of miscues in its two regular-season matchups with Indiana. Haliburton committed only one turnover in 64 minutes against Oklahoma City during the regular season. And as a team, the Pacers turned the ball over only 24 times in two games against the Thunder, leading to 26 points \u2014 fewer points per game off of turnovers than OKC scored <a data-i13n=\"cpos:61;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/misc?OpponentTeamID=1610612760&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=OPP_PTS_OFF_TOV\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:against anyone else in the league;cpos:61;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">against anyone else in the league<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cwhen\u201d of those boo-boos matters, though. In the March meeting, the Pacers led late into the first quarter \u2026 and then committed <a data-i13n=\"cpos:62;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=151&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=McConnell%20Bad%20Pass%20Turnover%20(P1.T3)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:five;cpos:62;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">five<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:63;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=181&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=McConnell%20Lost%20Ball%20Turnover%20(P2.T4)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:turnovers;cpos:63;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">turnovers<\/a> in the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:64;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=205&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=Siakam%20Bad%20Pass%20Turnover%20(P1.T5)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:next;cpos:64;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">next<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:65;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=236&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=Turner%20Bad%20Pass%20Turnover%20(P2.T6)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:nine;cpos:65;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">nine<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:66;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=280&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=Toppin%20Out%20of%20Bounds%20-%20Bad%20Pass%20Turnover%20Turnover%20(P1.T7)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:minutes;cpos:66;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">minutes<\/a> of game time, with a <a data-i13n=\"cpos:67;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=145&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=MISS%20Walker%203%27%20Driving%20Layup\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:missed layup;cpos:67;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">missed layup<\/a> that the Thunder immediately turned into an <a data-i13n=\"cpos:68;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/events?CFID=&amp;CFPARAMS=&amp;GameEventID=147&amp;GameID=0022401079&amp;Season=2024-25&amp;flag=1&amp;title=Gilgeous-Alexander%202%27%20Driving%20Finger%20Roll%20Layup%20(9%20PTS)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:SGA layup;cpos:68;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">SGA layup<\/a> on the other end to boot. Before you knew it, Indiana had lost its offensive rhythm, Oklahoma City had found one, and Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. were up double digits.<\/p>\n<p>As <a data-i13n=\"cpos:69;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/thef5.substack.com\/p\/turnover-economy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Owen Phillips has noted at The F5;cpos:69;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Owen Phillips has noted at The F5<\/a>, turnover margin has become arguably the defining win condition in the modern NBA. During the 2024-25 NBA regular season, teams that won the turnover battle went 668-461, a .592 winning percentage, according to <a data-i13n=\"cpos:70;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/nbavisuals.com\/stat-win-rate\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:CourtSketch;cpos:70;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">CourtSketch<\/a>. In the postseason, the team that commits fewer turnovers is 54-20, a .730 winning percentage \u2014 equivalent to 60 wins over an 82-game season.<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City will try to do what it did to Memphis, Denver and Minnesota: tighten the vise grip on and off the ball, reducing the amount of airspace in which the offense has to operate until it\u2019s so tightly constricted that the Thunder can just rip the ball away. Indiana, on the other hand, will try to do what it did to Milwaukee, Cleveland and New York: vary its angles of attack and take advantage of being able to run five-out spacing at virtually all times, spreading OKC out enough that even the most hellacious unit in the league can\u2019t move far enough and fast enough to keep up with the flight of the ball as it leads navy blue-and-gold-clad bodies into open shots. Whoever\u2019s able to tilt the possession battle in their favor figures to have a leg up in what promises to be an all-out sprint of a series.<\/p>\n<p>Biggest X-factor<\/p>\n<p>How does Holmgren change the matchup?<\/p>\n<p>Holmgren didn\u2019t play in either game against Indiana during the regular season. He missed the first game during his recovery from a fractured hip, and the second as part of Oklahoma City\u2019s <a data-i13n=\"cpos:71;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/article\/okc-thunder-vs-indiana-pacers-100352981.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:management plan for his return from that injury;cpos:71;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">management plan for his return from that injury<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>At the risk of overstating the obvious: Adding a 7-foot-1, 3-point shooting, face-up driving rim protector and rebounder who plays 30 minutes a night figures to alter the chemistry of the matchup at least a little. But how?<\/p>\n<p>For one thing: Who does Chet guard?<\/p>\n<p>During the regular-season matchups, Hartenstein opened up on Turner and Williams began on Siakam, with Dort on Haliburton, Wallace on Nembhard, and SGA taking Indiana\u2019s fifth starter (Mathurin in the first game, Nesmith in the second). With Holmgren starting, do you slot him onto Turner, stretch-5-for-stretch-5, put Hartenstein on Siakam \u2014 a matchup he saw plenty during both the regular season and the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:72;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/player\/1628392\/head-to-head?Season=2023-24\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:2024 Eastern Conference semifinals;cpos:72;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">2024 Eastern Conference semifinals<\/a> when he was with the Knicks \u2014 and slide J-Dub over to Nembhard?<\/p>\n<p>Can Indiana make hay out of that, whether with Turner leveraging his strength advantage over Holmgren or Siakam using his speed to dust Hartenstein? If Dort goes shutdown-corner on Haliburton, can Nembhard (who averaged 19.5 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists per game on 50% shooting against OKC in the regular season) use <a data-i13n=\"cpos:73;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pacers\/status\/1919926968377630957\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:that bionic shoulder;cpos:73;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">that bionic shoulder<\/a> to create space against the 6-foot-6, 220-pound Williams?<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>(Also: Daigneault hasn\u2019t been shy about toggling the matchups to get his wings cross-matched onto bigs and vice versa \u2014 think Wallace on Turner and Hartenstein on Nesmith \u2014 when he thinks it might wrong-foot the offense. If and when the Thunder juggle the matchups, can <a data-i13n=\"cpos:74;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/posts\/how-pacers-are-125721771?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=postshare_creator&amp;utm_content=join_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:the Pacers\u2019 wings take advantage;cpos:74;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">the Pacers\u2019 wings take advantage<\/a> of the extra space and make them pay?)<\/p>\n<p>Conversely: How does Indiana defend Chet, and what are the downstream effects of that?<\/p>\n<p>The Pacers mostly guarded him with centers during their <a data-i13n=\"cpos:75;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/game\/ind-vs-okc-0022300941\/box-score?dir=D&amp;sort=matchupMinutesSort&amp;type=matchups\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:two;cpos:75;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">two<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:76;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/game\/okc-vs-ind-0022301116\/box-score?dir=D&amp;sort=matchupMinutesSort&amp;type=matchups\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:meetings;cpos:76;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">meetings<\/a> in the 2023-24 regular season; that was before OKC added Hartenstein, on whom Indiana <a data-i13n=\"cpos:77;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/game\/okc-vs-ind-0022400410\/box-score?dir=D&amp;sort=matchupMinutesSort&amp;type=matchups\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:stationed;cpos:77;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">stationed<\/a> its <a data-i13n=\"cpos:78;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/game\/ind-vs-okc-0022401079\/box-score?dir=D&amp;latest=0&amp;period=Q2&amp;sort=matchupMinutesSort&amp;type=matchups\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:centers;cpos:78;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">centers<\/a> with Holmgren absent. Wallace starting in Holmgren\u2019s place in both games gave Haliburton a like-sized, lower-usage \u201chiding\u201d spot on defense, and allowed Carlisle to station Siakam on Dort, off of whom he could roam to play free safety and muck things up as a help defender. If Carlisle starts more or less straight up \u2014 Turner on Hartenstein and Siakam on Holmgren, with Nembhard and Nesmith taking Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams \u2014 does the need to be more attentive to Holmgren on the perimeter make it tougher for Siakam to load up in help position?<\/p>\n<p>With Haliburton then slotted onto Dort, how hard does OKC look to hit its guard-guard screening actions, trying to hunt the Pacers point guard more effectively than their Eastern competitors were able to in service of forcing Haliburton to handle even more physicality? And if the Pacers try to handle that hunting by pre-switching off the ball, a kind of three-card monte game aimed at keeping Haliburton out of the action, will the Thunder have opportunities to attack gaps and compromise the Pacers rotation?<\/p>\n<p>Other key questions I\u2019m curious about<\/p>\n<p>What if being bigger doesn\u2019t help the Thunder? It\u2019s possible that adding a second 7-footer doesn\u2019t really benefit Oklahoma City in a matchup against a Pacers team where everybody can shoot. If Indiana\u2019s able to consistently generate good looks against the two-big alignment \u2014 and here\u2019s where we note that the Hartenstein-Holmgren combo is just <a data-i13n=\"cpos:79;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/lineups\/traditional?CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Hartenstein:GROUP_NAME*E*Holmgren&amp;GroupQuantity=2&amp;PerMode=Totals&amp;slug=traditional\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:plus-6 in 201 minutes in the playoffs;cpos:79;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">plus-6 in 201 minutes in the playoffs<\/a> \u2014 how quickly will Daigneault downshift to go to Wallace or Caruso? Might he wind up staggering Hartenstein and Holmgren more aggressively \u2014 or even full-tilt small-ball, with Kenrich Williams, who was a <a data-i13n=\"cpos:80;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/game\/ind-vs-okc-0022401079\/box-score\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:plus-23 in 26 minutes in the March win;cpos:80;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">plus-23 in 26 minutes in the March win<\/a>, at the 5? (Daigneault has already started second halves with Hartenstein coming off the bench; will Indiana force him to shift that way to start games, too?)<\/p>\n<p>Will OKC play Siakam straight up? Siakam reminded everyone in the Knicks series just what a mismatch nightmare he can be against defenders of all shapes, sizes and skill levels if allowed to attack in isolation. If he proves to be too strong for Holmgren, too quick for Hartenstein, and too big for the likes of J-Dub or Caruso to handle one-on-one, what kind of help would the Thunder show, and what holes would that open up for Indiana to exploit?<\/p>\n<p>Can Haliburton get into the paint? Haliburton averaged 10.8 drives per game during the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:81;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/drives?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Haliburton&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:regular season;cpos:81;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">regular season<\/a> and 11.8 drives per game through the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:82;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/drives?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Haliburton&amp;SeasonType=Playoffs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:first three rounds of the playoffs;cpos:82;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">first three rounds of the playoffs<\/a>; against Oklahoma City, he averaged <a data-i13n=\"cpos:83;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/drives?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Haliburton&amp;DateFrom=&amp;DateTo=&amp;OpponentTeamID=1610612760&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:six;cpos:83;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">six<\/a>. If the Thunder\u2019s point-of-attack defenders and gap help can keep him from getting downhill, compromising the coverage, drawing another defender and opening up kickouts, it\u2019ll go a long way toward limiting the most dangerous elements of the Indiana offense.<\/p>\n<p>Who controls the corners? No team <a data-i13n=\"cpos:84;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/opponent-shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=D&amp;sort=Corner%203%20FGA\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:allows;cpos:84;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">allows<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:85;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/opponent-shooting?DistanceRange=By+Zone&amp;SeasonType=Playoffs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:more;cpos:85;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">more<\/a> corner 3-point attempts per game than the Thunder; Indiana as a team shot 40.6% on corner triples during the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:86;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=D&amp;sort=Corner%203%20FG%20PCT\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:regular season;cpos:86;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">regular season<\/a>, and is shooting a scorching 46.9% in the <a data-i13n=\"cpos:87;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/shooting?SeasonType=Playoffs&amp;DistanceRange=By+Zone\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:playoffs;cpos:87;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">playoffs<\/a>. If the Pacers can move the ball quickly enough to beat Oklahoma City\u2019s high-pressure defense at the point of attack, there\u2019ll be openings in the short corners. If they keep cashing out on them, will it force Daigneault and Co. to tamp the aggression down a bit, and give Haliburton and Nembhard a little more breathing room to create up top?<\/p>\n<p>Can Oklahoma City keep Indiana out of transition? The Pacers push off of everything \u2014 not just missed shots and live-ball turnovers, but also made baskets and free throws \u2014 and they\u2019re excellent at generating easy baskets off of that elevated tempo, tying for third in the NBA in points added per possession in transition <a data-i13n=\"cpos:88;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/context#tab-offense_transition\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:during the regular season;cpos:88;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">during the regular season<\/a> and third <a data-i13n=\"cpos:89;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/context?season=2024&amp;seasontype=playoffs&amp;start=04\/19\/2025&amp;end=10\/15\/2025#tab-offense_transition\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:in the postseason;cpos:89;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">in the postseason<\/a>. The Thunder, though, have been elite in <a data-i13n=\"cpos:90;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/context#tab-defense_transition\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:limiting;cpos:90;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">limiting<\/a> <a data-i13n=\"cpos:91;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/cleaningtheglass.com\/stats\/league\/context?season=2024&amp;seasontype=playoffs&amp;start=04\/19\/2025&amp;end=10\/15\/2025#tab-defense_transition\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:transition;cpos:91;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">transition<\/a> opportunities \u2014 thanks partly to their own ability to avoid turnovers, one of several superpowers that SGA possesses \u2014 and forcing opponents to play against their set defense. If Oklahoma City can limit live-ball turnovers and maintain its attention to floor balance, it\u2019ll make what promises to be an already tall task for Indiana that much tougher.<\/p>\n<p>Crunch-time lineups<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City Thunder<\/p>\n<p>You can write Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams\u2019 names in Sharpie. J-Dub has <a data-i13n=\"cpos:95;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;Period=4&amp;TeamID=1610612760&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=MIN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:played 131;cpos:95;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">played 131<\/a> of OKC\u2019s <a data-i13n=\"cpos:96;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;Period=4&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=W\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:192 fourth-quarter minutes;cpos:96;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">192 fourth-quarter minutes<\/a> this postseason (68.2%) and SGA has played 107 (55.7%). That includes <a data-i13n=\"cpos:97;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/clutch-traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;TeamID=1610612760&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=MIN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:nearly all;cpos:97;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">nearly all<\/a> of the Thunder\u2019s (comparatively rare) <a data-i13n=\"cpos:98;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/clutch-traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=MIN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:27 \u201cclutch\u201d minutes;cpos:98;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">27 \u201cclutch\u201d minutes<\/a> \u2014 defined by NBA Advanced Stats as when the score is within points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Holmgren (97 fourth-quarter minutes, 23 \u201cclutch\u201d minutes) will likely be manning the middle, too.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Beyond Oklahoma City\u2019s burgeoning Big Three, though, Daigneault tends to mix and match. If rebounding and rim protection are the top priorities, Hartenstein will close; if ball pressure, perimeter switchability and shooting are paramount, expect to see plenty of Dort, Caruso and\/or Wallace.<\/p>\n<p>Whether they go big, small or somewhere in between, Oklahoma City has the goods to throw out nightmarish defensive lineups that provide enough space for SGA to go to work. That\u2019s why, despite hardly ever letting contests come down to one or two possessions late, the Thunder have tended to fare awfully well within tighter confines: They\u2019re 21-10 in \u201cclutch\u201d games, outscoring opponents by 42 points in 94 <a data-i13n=\"cpos:99;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/clutch-traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=PLUS_MINUS\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:regular-;cpos:99;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">regular-<\/a> and <a data-i13n=\"cpos:100;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/teams\/clutch-traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=MIN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:postseason;cpos:100;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">postseason<\/a> crunch-time minutes.<\/p>\n<p>Indiana Pacers<\/p>\n<p>Nembhard, Turner, Siakam, Nesmith and Haliburton lead Indiana in <a data-i13n=\"cpos:101;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;Period=4&amp;TeamID=1610612754&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=MIN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:fourth-quarter minutes;cpos:101;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">fourth-quarter minutes<\/a> during the postseason, and that quintet has outscored the Pacers\u2019 opposition <a data-i13n=\"cpos:102;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/lineups\/traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;Period=4&amp;SeasonType=Playoffs&amp;TeamID=0&amp;dir=D&amp;slug=traditional&amp;sort=PLUS_MINUS\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:by 18 points in 51 final-frame minutes;cpos:102;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">by 18 points in 51 final-frame minutes<\/a>. They\u2019ve also played <a data-i13n=\"cpos:103;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nba.com\/stats\/players\/clutch-traditional?PerMode=Totals&amp;TeamID=1610612754&amp;dir=A&amp;sort=MIN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:nearly all of the team\u2019s \u201cclutch\u201d minutes;cpos:103;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">nearly all of the team\u2019s \u201cclutch\u201d minutes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Carlisle has demonstrated his willingness to reach down the bench for a change-up if he thinks one\u2019s necessary: T.J. McConnell for point-of-attack pressure and an extra ball-handler, Ben Sheppard for a bit more size and shooting on the perimeter, Obi Toppin for some more offensive juice and athleticism, Thomas Bryant to stretch the floor, Jarace Walker (<a data-i13n=\"cpos:104;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/article\/rick-carlisle-gives-jarace-walker-123951732.html\" data-ylk=\"slk:if healthy;cpos:104;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">if healthy<\/a>) for more mobility up front, etc. For the most part, though, expect Carlisle to stick with the unit that got him here \u2014 the group best equipped to play the style on both ends of the floor that can make Indiana such a difficult puzzle for opponents to solve.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Thunder in 6<\/p>\n<p>The Pacers are a phenomenal team: an explosive, efficient, fast-paced and well-drilled offense, paired with a physical, aggressive, versatile, well-schemed defense. They\u2019re deep and disciplined, creative and well-coached \u2014 a beautifully conceived and constructed modern NBA team.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s just that the Thunder are all of that, too, only better at \u2026 well, just about all of it.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>I picked Oklahoma City to hoist the Larry O\u2019B before the season, I did it again before the playoffs, and as impressed as I\u2019ve been by Indiana, I see no reason to switch up now. SGA caps one of the most incredible individual seasons in NBA history by winning Finals MVP, and the Thunder make all of us wonder whether all that talk about the death of dynasties might not have been a bit premature.<\/p>\n<p>Series odds<\/p>\n<p>(via <a data-i13n=\"cpos:105;pos:1\" href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/odds\/futures\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:BetMGM;cpos:105;pos:1;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">BetMGM<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Oklahoma City Thunder (-700)<\/p>\n<p>Indiana Pacers (+500)<\/p>\n<p>Series schedule (all times Eastern)<\/p>\n<p>Game 1: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Thursday, June 5 (8:30 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>Game 2: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Sunday, June 8 (8 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Game 3: Oklahoma City at Indiana on Wednesday, June 11 (8:30 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>Game 4: Oklahoma City at Indiana on Friday, June 13 (8:30 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>*Game 5: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Monday, June 16 (8:30 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>*Game 6: Oklahoma City at Indiana on Thursday, June 19 (8:30 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>*Game 7: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Sunday, June 22 (8 p.m., ABC)<\/p>\n<p>*if necessary<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After an 82-game marathon, followed by three grueling rounds of postseason competition, we now approach the finish line&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76437,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3774],"tags":[280,1289,328,1784,7,75,103,205,305,125,791,301,864,576,257,619,113,126,3866,949,1624,364,965,5760,304,183,368,1436,293,102,307,367,6,1220,253,302,475,179,114,279,209,2957,308,255],"class_list":{"0":"post-76436","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-indiana-pacers","8":"tag-aaron-nesmith","9":"tag-aaron-wiggins","10":"tag-alex-caruso","11":"tag-andrew-nembhard","12":"tag-basketball","13":"tag-boston-celtics","14":"tag-bucks","15":"tag-cason-wallace","16":"tag-cleveland","17":"tag-damian-lillard","18":"tag-darius-garland","19":"tag-denver","20":"tag-donovan-mitchell","21":"tag-evan-mobley","22":"tag-haliburton","23":"tag-holmgren","24":"tag-indiana","25":"tag-indiana-pacers","26":"tag-indianapacers","27":"tag-isaiah-hartenstein","28":"tag-isaiah-joe","29":"tag-jalen-williams","30":"tag-josh-giddey","31":"tag-kenrich-williams","32":"tag-knicks","33":"tag-luguentz-dort","34":"tag-luka-doncic","35":"tag-mathurin","36":"tag-memphis","37":"tag-milwaukee","38":"tag-minnesota","39":"tag-myles-turner","40":"tag-nba","41":"tag-nba-finals","42":"tag-nikola-jokic","43":"tag-nuggets","44":"tag-oklahoma-city","45":"tag-oklahoma-city-thunder","46":"tag-pacers","47":"tag-pascal-siakam","48":"tag-shai-gilgeous-alexander","49":"tag-the-pacers","50":"tag-timberwolves","51":"tag-warriors"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76436\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}