{"id":814309,"date":"2026-08-17T19:57:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T19:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/814309\/"},"modified":"2026-08-17T19:57:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T19:57:25","slug":"are-vegas-sportsbooks-sleeping-on-the-broncos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/814309\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Vegas sportsbooks sleeping on the Broncos?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Troy Renck: Beauty and the Beef. How can you watch the Broncos\u2019 preseason opener and not be encouraged?<\/a> The Broncos have boasted a Super Bowl caliber defense for two seasons. The Beef, as it were, leads the NFL in sacks the past two seasons and is poised to produce more takeaways. The unit might finally be complemented by a gorgeous offense, one capable of starting fast and leading for long stretches. And yet, the sportsbooks are not buying it. At most shops, the Broncos\u2019 are sitting on an over-under of 9.5 wins<\/a>. Are the early signs<\/a> a mirage or do you think it exceeds that number?<\/p>\n

Sean Keeler: If you\u2019re giving me 9.5 wins, I\u2019m taking, baby. I\u2019m taking your money, your car, your mortgage and your yacht. Preseason scorelines can fly, but your eyes do not. The Broncos\u2019 starters \u2014 and those starters were without Bo Nix or Jaylen Waddle and J.K. Dobbins \u2014 made Atlanta look like a J.V. team, which the Falcons might very well turn out to be. Sixteen different Broncos offensive players landed a 64 grade (out of 100) or better by Pro Football Focus\u2019 grading wonks, and 25 different defenders. That Sean Payton won by 20 on the road and still spent a good chunk of his postgame presser either complaining, yammering about Jack Lemmon<\/a>, or both, is a heck of a good sign. I mean, totally weird and totally Sean. But a good sign, nonetheless.<\/p>\n

Renck: The Broncos ranked among the NFL\u2019s worst in early-down efficiency last season, especially in first halves<\/a>. The slow starts made comebacks necessary. The 12-3 record in one-score games, including the playoffs, is among the main reasons sportsbooks don\u2019t trust them. But J.K. Dobbins made a pinky promise, so he has to be healthy, right? In all seriousness, the ground game looks better because of Jonah Coleman. He is a bowling ball with wheels, already drawing comparisons to Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD delivered 941 yards as a rookie. If Coleman posts 700, the Broncos will finish closer to 14 wins than 10.\n<\/p>\n

Keeler: I was always Jonah Curious, but once I saw him running over (and around) CSU last August, I bought a ticket on the Coleman bandwagon and hopped on board.<\/a> He\u2019s everything the Broncos needed last December and January and didn\u2019t have once Captain Pinky Promise went down: A three-down hammer who can block, catch, and, unlike RJ Harvey, punish defenders when he runs between the tackles. Coleman is the best kind of Dobbins insurance policy, someone who\u2019d start for most of the offenses in this league. That gives the Broncos staying power for those cold-weather tests coming up later on the fight card, especially at Pittsburgh (Nov. 28) and at New England (Jan. 3). Why did he \u201cfall\u201d to the Broncos in the fourth round? He\u2019s not the breakaway\/home run\/speed threat that a Harvey or a even Jaleel McLaughlin is once they get outside the box. That said, you can go a long way with a guy who consistently hits double after double coming out of the backfield.<\/p>\n

Renck: And the first problem with believing in the Broncos is my last point: Bo Nix. His multiple ankle surgeries create pause. His lack of production in the middle of the field raises eyebrows. But what if he is more mobile, and rushes for 500 yards and five scores? Based on what we saw in Davis Webb\u2019s first game as the offensive coordinator, Nix will be asked to fill out the spray chart. With Dobbins and Coleman creating momentum on the ground, Nix can let it eat through the air. The vertical threat has been missing. If the Broncos establish it with consistency \u2014 hello Jaylen Waddle \u2014 they should average 27 points per game. Do that with this defense, and 10 wins will be no problem. The only question will be whether they can survive the first six games from a health standpoint to make a Super Bowl run?<\/p>\n

Keeler: Payton has won fewer than nine games six times in 18 seasons as NFL coach. Cowboy up those first six weeks, and the rest of the ride gets smoother. After Oct. 15, the Broncos have six road tilts, and only one \u2014 at the Pats \u2014 is against a team that\u2019s projected to finish with a winning record (the Cardinals, Panthers, Steelers, the Jets, the Raiders twice). There\u2019s only one way the Broncos win fewer than 10 contests this fall, and that\u2019s if Steady Sparky Stiddy has to start more than seven of them. September will be tight. October will be tense. But if the Broncos aren\u2019t 4-3 or better on Halloween, I\u2019ll eat my shorts.<\/p>\n

Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Troy Renck: Beauty and the Beef. How can you watch the Broncos\u2019 preseason opener and not be encouraged?…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":814310,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3781],"tags":[7,49930,10148,2858,16370,24812,86641,301,2863,187,3943,3726,56077,34717,19555,34671,55734,1638,165,14288,6324,6,9,302,43282,4098,8869,8131,66,198,13349,3788,8870],"class_list":["post-814309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-denver-nuggets","tag-basketball","tag-betting-sites","tag-bo-nix","tag-broncos","tag-broncos-takes","tag-csu","tag-davis-webb","tag-denver","tag-denver-broncos","tag-denver-nuggets","tag-denvernuggets","tag-football","tag-halloween","tag-j-k-dobbins","tag-jaleel-mclaughlin","tag-jaylen-waddle","tag-jonah-coleman","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-latest-headlines","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-more-broncos-news","tag-nba","tag-nfl","tag-nuggets","tag-rj-harvey","tag-sean-keeler","tag-sean-keeler-versus","tag-sean-payton","tag-sports","tag-sports-columnists","tag-super-bowl","tag-troy-renck","tag-troy-renck-versus"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/117112618554489072","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/814309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=814309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/814309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/814310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=814309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=814309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=814309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}