Inside the offices and along the corridors of HSS Training Center, Nets staff and players dismiss the doomsaying conventional wisdom of ESPN and the Las Vegas sports books who have them winning between 18 and 24.5 out of 82 next season. That\u2019s either a drop-off from two years of tanking (ESPN) or a slight improvement (FanDuel, et al.) One word being used to describe ESPN\u2019s low total is \u201cridiculous.\u201d And no, from top to bottom, they don\u2019t mind being under-estimated. They are young, after all.<\/p>\n
The Nets own internal win projection is a state secret. Yes, there is one. Nothing\u2019s been said publicly either although Mikel Brown Jr. quoted Julius Randle as saying, \u201cwe will shock the world.\u201d You\u2019ll near more from the team on Media Day now a month away, on September 28. Sure the East, particularly the Atlantic Division is a lot stronger and the Nets will almost certainly be the youngest team in the NBA \u2026 not just for this season but in decades. And two of the five youngest players on the roster will likely start at the 1 and 2.<\/p>\n
But projections are just that. We were told that the internal win projection for 2009-10 was somewhere around 17 That was the 12-70 season. An the other end of the scale, the internal projection for 2018-19 was 37. They won 42 and secured the sixth seed. And if you expect, like we do, an active trade deadline, what happens then could certainly alter things. So could injuries to your own team or to others.<\/p>\n
There was also this past week, a couple of social media posts projecting the Nets beyond this season, just a little optimism from outside 168 39th Street in Sunset Park. Sam Quinn basically defended Sean Marks & co. after Bleacher Report put the Nets front office at No. 28 in their rankings. Quinn had put the Nets in the middle of the pack, at No. 16, earlier this month\u2026<\/p>\n
We have been hearing something similar\u2026<\/p>\n
And in the Nets newly released video on the off-season (more on that below,) editors chose to use this line from Marks talking about the future..<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m excited to see the roster grow,\u201d said the GM following the Draft. \u201cand I\u2019m excited to see whatever falls our way in either trades and free agency.\u201d<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve also heard that the trade deadline could be busier than normal \u2014 the Nets have historically made their biggest moves at the Draft.<\/p>\n
Quinn\u2019s tweet has nothing specific about targets for all those picks nor time. He was a 30,000-foot view. Like us he knows the lay of the Nets land: 10 firsts that can be traded tomorrow and anther 19 seconds available at a moment\u2019s notice as well. They have other assets too, including a tiny bit of cap space, the full $9.4 million room MLE, $48.9 million space between payroll and first apron and nearly $7 million in cash considerations which have some utility specifically in salary dumps. Specifically, Brooklyn used cash to close deals four times last uear, including in the dumps that got them the 22nd pick that became Drake Powell as well as the one that got them Josh Minott.<\/p>\n
They also have a couple of lesser known advantages. Because they\u2019ve been under the luxury tax threshold the last three seasons, there\u2019s no worry they\u2019ll fall into repeater tax hell until 2030 which will be after the current CBA expires. Marks has a \u201csurplus\u201d of six firsts. meaning that over next seven years they have six more firsts than they would have if they only had their own. Some teams have a deficit. That\u2019s what Quinn means by a \u201cclean cap sheet\u201d and \u201cmassive first round pick surplus.\u201d<\/p>\n
We know many of you will stop reading right here. Flexibility again?!? How about some wins?!? Why didn\u2019t they use all those assets this summer?!? The answer to the last question is what you might call Marks\u2019s \u201cdouble A\u201d rule, invoked at last year\u2019s Media Day: they\u2019re not interested in breaking the bank for anyone who doesn\u2019t \u201cautomatically and absolutely\u201d change the team\u2019s \u201ctrajectory\u201d and ultimately \u201csustained success.\u201d<\/p>\n
Incremental moves like trading Nic Claxton for Julius Randle and another first round pick are fine, but they\u2019re hanging on to those picks believing they are currently the coin of the realm in the NBA. They\u2019re always looking to adding some as they did in the Randle trade! They believe, strongly, the route to that \u201csustained success\u201d in the age of first and second aprons is cycling through and developing first rounders who have cheap four-year deals. If they hit on enough of them, they\u2019ll have good young players \u2014 and cap room to sign or trade for the higher-paid star or two without fear of luxury tax or aprons.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s a practical example. Let\u2019s imagine (hope) that both Egor Demin and Mikel Brown Jr. reach the potential that Nets brass believe they can: starting backcourt mates with All-Star possibilities. Demin is under contract for the next three seasons; Brown Jr. for four. This year, the two of them will make a combined $16 million \u2014 Demin, an eighth pick in his second year, $7.2 million; Brown Jr, a sixth pick in his rookie year, $8.8 million.<\/p>\n
At no point during their four-year rookie deals will either make more than $12.6 million a year. If the salary cap goes up the customary seven to 10 percent each year from its current $165 million, neither\u2019s salary will come close to 10% of the team\u2019s cap space. Compare that to Michael Porter Jr. whose $40.8 million salary will represent 24% of the cap. Plus the Nets won\u2019t have to pay either one the big bucks until 2030 in Demin\u2019s case, 2031 in Brown Jr.\u2018s.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s another practical example. The eight players on rookie deals this season \u2014 Noah Clowney, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Mikel Brown Jr. and Joshua Jefferson \u2014 will earn $38 million which is a little less than a quarter of the salary cap.<\/p>\n
No, we are not saying it will work!! The Flatbush 5 has been criticized since the night they were drafted and three of them \u2014 Powell, Saraf and Wolf \u2014 did not have good Summer Leagues. Another, Traore, was hurt. The Nets have until October 31 to decide whether to keep them through a third year but no one expects the Nets will bail on their development this early. The team will face the same decision on year 4 guarantees a year from now. That calculus could be different. Even if it works to perfection, there\u2019s concerns that they\u2019ll face big decisions on big money all at once. (They should be so lucky.)<\/p>\n
There are other elements to the strategy. They\u2019ll take low-cost risks on so-called \u201cfallen angels\u201d like Josh Minott (and remember they took shots at Kobe Bufkin and Ochai Agbaji that failed.) They do not want, at least at this point in the rebuild, to cut long-term deals either. Thus, the impasse with Michael Porter Jr. as well as the team and \u201cmutual\u201d second-year options Minott, Day\u2019Ron Sharpe, Moe Wagner and Keon Ellis agreed to this summer.<\/p>\n
Indeed, other than the rookies with their two-year guarantees on four-year deals, only Terance Mann is owed guaranteed money beyond this season. He\u2019s got $31 million left on his deal. Julius Randle has a player option. The roster is built to turn on a dime and unsentimentally move on.<\/p>\n
It is a fairly unique (extreme?) strategy that will test ownership\u2019s resolve and fans\u2019 patience. It\u2019s also lost on some pundits perhaps because of those unique qualities. Some might say the strategy is the response of the failed Big Three experience. It is unquestionably at the opposite end of what they did in the culmination of Marks first rebuild when they signed Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan, traded for James Harden and added their friends, whether Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge or Mike James and DeAndre Bembry while dumping firsts to preserve cap space. We know that didn\u2019t work.<\/p>\n
Jordi Fernandez likes Julius Randle \u2026 and vice versa<\/p>\n
The Nets released their latest Brooklyn Bridge video this week. It\u2019s a 20-minute report on the off-season, which as usual, featured top notch production from the team\u2019s video unit. It also provides some new insights into the team\u2019s thinking on the Draft and free agency, plus what some might call \u201cEaster eggs,\u201d little hints of things hidden in the nooks and crannies.<\/p>\n
One thing in particular caught our eye, which was the focus on the addition of Julius Randle. Here\u2019s Jordi Fernandez speaking to camera (with a broad smile) about what the 31-year-old brings.<\/p>\n
\u201cJulius is an established, all-star. playoff player, a player that is going to come here and show everybody else how it\u2019s done. I\u2019m very excited to get to coach him, and for him to raise the floor,\u201d Fernandez said.<\/p>\n
Randle, who\u2019 is happy to be back in New York where he excelled as a Knick, returned the favor telling the Nets producers he\u2019s \u201cexcited\u201d about his new role with a new team.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m excited to be here. We got a lot of talent on this team, a lot of young talent and you know, I\u2019m really excited to just help them.<\/p>\n
Could Randle follow the model of Michael Porter Jr., who had his best season in the NBA last year under Fernandez? Earlier this month, his agent Mark Bartelstein praised Fernandez\u2019s work MPJ. specifically how Fernandez used his client creatively.<\/p>\n
\u201cJordi has been great for him,\u201d said Bartelstein on SiriusXM.. \u201cJordi has been so innovative in how he used him.\u201d Next up: Julius Randle?<\/p>\n
In that same video, there an enlightenting section on how the Nets rookies fared in pre-draft interviews.<\/p>\n
Mikel Brown Jr. spoke about leadership. When Sean Marks asked about how Brown Jr. leads, the 20-year-old was not taken aback. In fact, he seemed to suggest there was only one answer \u2026 and he gets it.<\/p>\n
\u201cBy taking command!\u201d he said. \u201cTaking charge, knowing that I can take accountability when I\u2019m messing up. They can get on me just I can get on them. I love to play the game the right way. I\u2019m not \u2026 I\u2019m not the one to be selfish, to care about stats. I want to win at the end of the day.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Nets other first rounder, 22-year-old 6\u20199\u201d point forward Joshua Jefferson was asked, again by Marks, what set him apart at the Draft Combine. He was specific and not afraid to talk about how unique he thinks his game is.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy vocalness on the defensive side of the ball,\u201d he told the Nets GM. \u201cI felt like the loudest person in the gym. I think I was playmaking, rebounding, I was defending. I don\u2019t think there\u2019s a lot of players in this draft are capable of doing all those things at a high level. That\u2019s what I think I\u2019m really good at doing and then that professional mature approach to the game.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s not going to be any nonsense with me,\u201d he added. \u201cI\u2019m just going to come in, get my work done, put in extra work and then be a good person to be around.\u201c<\/p>\n
As for Tyler Bilodeau, the Nets 43rd pick who\u2019ll start his career as a two-way, Marks asked what he thinks his NBA role will be. Shooting, of course, is a given, but also promised physicality.<\/p>\n
\u201cOffensively, as a floor spacer said he 6\u20199\u201d wing who had the highest 3-point percentage (46%) in the 2026 draft class. \u201cYou know, I think I can get into actions. I feel I have a high IQ so I can make plays and read things well, can shoot the ball at a high level, can play pick and roll, try to confuse defenses and that sort of thing. And two, if I can get into a mismatch, punish the mismatch.\u201d<\/p>\n
Terance Mann likes his role mentoring the rooks<\/p>\n