We spend countless hours grinding inputs for our projections. Whether it\u2019s minutes or rates, we do our best to give every fantasy-relevant player the most accurate projection. However, sometimes the math just can\u2019t get there on dozens of players in the NBA, which causes the projections to be behind on ADPs. These cases are The Projection Breakers.<\/p>\n
Usually, the main driver in being behind on a projection is total minutes. Sometimes a player just hasn\u2019t shown he can play a heavier minutes workload, or he has a history of missing games. It could also just be a logjam at his position or his coach generally not pushing up minutes on his main rotation players. It could also just be that we\u2019re off on rates, pushing the per-minute output down.<\/p>\n
Another common reason is the market is just way too excited about a rookie or a player in a new situation. We can try to paint a bull case for some of these options to get closer, but we still can\u2019t even get there.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Most of the scenarios above, we can try to account for, but the next one, we really can\u2019t: Trades can shift so much value that we can\u2019t account for, so that\u2019s an area where drafters have to be aware. I\u2019m here to help, so let\u2019s start there. Plus, some injury-prone players going down could also open things up. I\u2019ll lay out why we\u2019re behind and mention if I\u2019m willing to draft them near ADP.<\/p>\n
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Trades not baked in enough<\/p>\n
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Kel\u2019El Ware \u2013 If the Bucks can somehow get off of Myles Turner, Ware would become one of the best C values in the middle rounds on DraftKings. Coach Erik Spoelstra in Miami would put Ware in the doghouse, but the Bucks may not have that option given he was one of the best pieces in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. Plus, no more Doc Rivers should keep the Jericho Sims factor suppressed. Ware has huge rates, and this is a bet I would want to make even though the projections don\u2019t like it that much.<\/p>\n
Maxime Raynaud \u2013 Last year, Domantas Sabonis went down, and that allowed Raynaud to make the All-Rookie Second Team thanks to his post-break 17\/9\/2 line over 32.2 minutes per game. There are a lot of rumors about Sabonis getting traded, which would open things up a ton for Raynaud (and Dylan Cardwell to a lesser extent). Raynaud costs a ton on DK, and we\u2019re almost two rounds behind on him. It\u2019s just a weird spot in the draft, and I\u2019d still rather take Isaiah Hartenstein a round later. However, if you missed C in the first few rounds, Raynaud may be worth the swing at ADP because you need the upside to catch up. I\u2019ll be underweight on him, and I\u2019m OK with that.<\/p>\n
Anthony Black \u2013 The Magic are getting very expensive on the cap sheet, so they may have to move on from Jalen Suggs. Plus, Suggs misses a lot of time due to injury, giving Black another path. Black has shown he can soak up minutes and even some usage, and he also has some paths to more minutes with any starting perimeter player missing time. We\u2019re only a half-round behind on Black, so he\u2019s someone I\u2019ll be taking a round or so ahead of our rank. There are some solid options in his range, though.<\/p>\n
Morez Johnson Jr. and Santi Aldama \u2013 We\u2019re already way ahead on these guys, and we might get even more ahead if Daniel Gafford gets traded. They also have the out of Dereck Lively II missing so much time. They\u2019ll be two of my highest-rostered players over the next 1.5 months.<\/p>\n
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Contingency value from injuries<\/p>\n
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