{"id":832605,"date":"2026-09-10T22:51:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T22:51:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/832605\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T22:51:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T22:51:20","slug":"predicting-who-the-boston-celtics-second-leading-scorer-will-be-next-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/832605\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting Who the Boston Celtics Second-Leading Scorer Will Be Next Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

We can get this out of the way pretty quickly: Jayson Tatum<\/a> will be the Boston Celtics<\/a>\u2019 leading scorer this season.<\/p>\n

I know. I know. This bold prediction has floored you and you need a minute to process this. I\u2019ll just be here playing on my phone until the shock has worn off.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2026
….
….<\/p>\n

Okay, now that we\u2019re back, we can get to the business of figuring out who will be second. Whittling down that field shouldn\u2019t be too difficult, either. The young wing crew of Baylor Scheierman<\/a>, Hugo Gonzalez<\/a>, Jordan Walsh<\/a>, and Ron Harper Jr<\/a>. will be important, and Boston will need two of them to be contributors, but I doubt any of them is averaging anything too deep into double digits.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Boston\u2019s centers will score, but they\u2019ll split that total. Maybe the combined centers average 25 a game, but that could be 15 points per game for Neemias Queta and 10 for Mitchell Robinson<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Boston\u2019s second-leading scorer will very likely come from one of three places, depending on how we classify the scoring: Paul George<\/a>, Derrick White<\/a>, and Payton Pritchard<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There will be a world where George is Boston\u2019s second-leading scorer in terms of points per game. He averaged 17.3 points per game for the Philadelphia 76ers last season, which is more than Pritchard or White averaged for the Celtics. Obviously, he did that over just 37 games, and there’s no expectation for him to play more than maybe 45 or 50 for Boston, so he won\u2019t be as prone to extended cold streaks as White or Pritchard, who play nearly 80 games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

George is 36, which is older but not ancient. He shot better than White or Pritchard from three last season, and he\u2019s still very good in the long mid-range. For a guy who isn\u2019t going to get to the rim the way he used to, it\u2019s a useful way to still contribute to the scoring.\u00a0<\/p>\n

George averaged .45 shots per minute played last season. If his overall minutes land somewhere between 25-30 \u2026 let\u2019s just say 27 to split the difference \u2026then George should get 12 shots per game. His twos and threes were split pretty evenly. If he hits 38% from three and 49% from two (his averages in Philadelphia), then he\u2019ll average about 13 points on his field goals. Toss in a couple of free throws and I\u2019m setting Georges per game scoring average next season at about 15 or so.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Celtics average about 90 shots per game under Joe Mazzulla, so I\u2019m using that as a baseline here. Maybe they can bump that up a little, but the league leader last season was the Miami Heat at 93, so even great rebounding, running, and turnover prevention won\u2019t make a material difference.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tatum has averaged about 20 shots per game since becoming an all-star, so let\u2019s put him down for that. If George is getting 12, then that leaves 68 for everyone else.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s go to the other end of the spectrum. Sam Hauser has been good for seven a game. Queta averged 6.6 last season. We can argue he deserves more, but let\u2019s put him down for eight this season. Mitchell Robinson should be good for a few lobs and a couple of putbacks, so he\u2019ll get five, which is his career average.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That brings us down to 48 shots left with five guys accounted for. Nine or 10 guys usually play in a game. Baylor Scheierman should get some good run, so we can give him a few shots. He averaged 4.3 last season, so a slight increase due to an increased role seems good. I\u2019ll give him six.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There will be two or three more players who get a couple of shots per game, which gets us to approximately 36 shots left.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think White and Pritchard will get 18 shots apiece, but I do think we see that they are in line to get an even split. White\u2019s 14.4 attempts last season was a career high, as was Pritchard\u2019s 13.8. I\u2019m going to say the rounding I did with all these calculations artificially inflated their numbers, so I\u2019m bumping them down to 17 shots each. I think that’s fair.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now it comes down to percentages.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aside from the 2024-25 season White has taken about 42% of his shots from two and 58% of his shots from three. I do expect White to get more catch-and-shoot looks this season, which will bump up his three-point percentage from last season, and I think the more consistent center play will help his two-point percentage. If we go back past last season and apply that moving forward, I\u2019d expect something around 55% from two and 38% from three.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pritchard\u2019s two point shots shot up last season, to 48.5% of his shot diet. The real question is whether that’s his new normal or a function of the situation. Considering that he mentioned on a few different occasions last season that he wanted to scale back on the three-point volume because he was settling, I\u2019m going to assume that percentage isn\u2019t an outlier. At the same time, I\u2019m still not sure if he\u2019ll start or come off the bench, and that will impact the shots he\u2019s taking.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If he comes off the bench, I expect him to drive more and keep his two\/three split closer to what it was last season. If he starts, he\u2019ll do a lot more catching and shooting, so the two-pointers will drop.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I can\u2019t shake Mazzulla\u2019s philosophy of splitting up the two primary ball-handlers last season, so I\u2019m going to say Pritchard sticks as sixth man. Playing with Tatum will increase his three-point diet, so I\u2019m going to guess at the split and say it\u2019s 45% twos and 55% threes. He shot 56% on twos last season and 37.7% from three. Let\u2019s say he shoots a little bit better and gets back up to 38.5% with his twos settling where they were last season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

White gets to the line a little more than Pritchard, so unless Pritchard can find some success foul-hunting, I\u2019m going to give White that extra point.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Totalling up the math, White would score seven points inside the arc, 11 points from three, and 2.5 from the line, giving him 20.5 points per game.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pritchard would score 8.5 points on twos, 11 on threes, and 1.5 from the line, giving him 21 points per game.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It would be incredible for the Celtics to have three guys averaging 20-plus per game, which last happened during their championship season. There’s a good chance I\u2019m over-estimating here, so I\u2019m not going to actually predict it. But wherever they land, Pritchard and White will probably be pretty close in production, with Pritchard getting a chance to do a little bit more in a bench role.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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