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The new try to win strategy will increase scrutiny on Brian Keefe, who sports one of the worst winning percentages in league history. The team made some changes to the coaching staff, promoting Adam Caporn (well respected around the league, and also coach of the Australian national team) to lead assistant, Cody Toppert from his role coaching the Capital City Go-Go, adding Patrick Ewing as a big man coach, and former NBA head coach Steve Clifford as an advisor.<\/p>\n
David Vanterpool, who\u2019d been the lead assistant the past three seasons, moves into a front office job.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s forecast presented some unique challenges. Biggest of these was guesstimating minutes. For the holdover Wizards, past may not be prelude. More productive youngsters (Sarr, Coulibaly, George) likely missed games and saw reduced minutes because of the team\u2019s commitment to losing \u2014 not because the various injuries and ailments would have kept them out of games if they\u2019d been trying to win.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Carrington played more than 2,200 minutes (and all 82 games) in each of his first two seasons. Odds of him playing another 2,000+ minutes this season are minuscule.<\/p>\n
Veterans like Young and Davis have missed time throughout the past few seasons due to injury, including huge chunks of last season. Both could have played more last season\u2026if the Wizards had been trying to win. Both have fairly recent seasons with high minutes.<\/p>\n
Davis played 2,700 regular season minutes in 2023-24. But he\u2019s missed a lot of time since. Compounding the challenge is that he\u2019s 33-years-old, which is when NBA players typically do two things: get injured and get worse. So, while I anticipate Davis will play more than he has the past couple seasons, I\u2019d be surprised if he cracks 2,000 minutes. My guesstimate for him is 1,650.<\/p>\n
Young, on the other hand, has been reasonably healthy. He played 2,739 minutes in 2024-25, and has appeared in less than 2,000 minutes just twice in his career. In one of them, he played 1,942 minutes. He surely would have played much more last year if wasn\u2019t for The Tank. Bottom line: Young has been reasonably healthy throughout his career, and can probably be counted on to be available. I have him guesstimated at 2,375 this season.<\/p>\n
These forecasts use my Player Production Average<\/a> (PPA) metric. PPA is an all-around rating tool that credits players for things they do that help a team win, and debits for things that don\u2019t \u2014 each in proportion to how individual players contribute to NBA wins and losses. PPA is pace neutral and includes accounting for defense, role and the level of competition a player faces when he\u2019s on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.<\/p>\n Below are results from four different forecast approaches: one using my Statistical Doppelg\u00e4nger Machine (DOPP), another using a predicted PPA based on an age-adjusted career curve (dubbed MILK in honor of sports economist David Berri<\/a>, who wore that NBA players, \u201c\u2026age like milk\u2026\u201d), a simple weighted three-year average PPA (SIMP) and another that applies an aging adjustment to that weighted three-year average (SAGE).<\/p>\n I estimated minutes by using a weighted average of each player\u2019s minutes in recent seasons, as well as my best guess at each player\u2019s role in the team\u2019s rotation this season.<\/p>\n Last PPA = PPA last seasonDOPP = forecasted PPA using the Doppelg\u00e4nger approachMILK = forecasted PPA using last season\u2019s PPA and an age adjustmentSIMP = forecasted PPA using a \u201csimple\u201d weighted three-year average PPASAGE = forecasted PPA using a \u201csimple\u201d weighted three-year average and an age adjustmentBLEND = forecasted PPA using an average of the four approaches above<\/p>\n The *** represents my best guess of which forecast is most probable for each individual.<\/p>\n Before getting into the forecasts, I\u2019m dubious about the SIMP and SAGE approaches, at least for younger players. The SIMP approach (weighted three-year average) forecasts lower scores for young guys, who typically play their worst as rookies and then improve. The age adjustment in the SAGE method improves that estimate somewhat, but still has the same underlying issue.<\/p>\n My feeling based on having done these for a few years is that DOPP and MILK are probably going to be better for players in their first 3-4 seasons, and that SIMP and SAGE will be applicable to established veterans.<\/p>\n Getty Images<\/p>\n Sublime and inventive passer with a ton of skill and craft across his offensive game. Young\u2019s penchant for jacking up long threes is something of a drain on his offensive efficiency, and his adventurous passing leads to a lot of turnovers. Still, he\u2019s a dynamic offensive player, who has a history of generating a high number of trips to the free throw line.<\/p>\n He\u2019s been one of the NBA\u2019s worst defenders for eight seasons because he\u2019s small, slender, and hasn\u2019t played with much alertness or effort on that end. In Washington, he says he\u2019s going to work harder, which seemed to be the case in preseason.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 137DOPP: 131MILK: 134SIMP: 137SAGE: 134BLEND: 134*** NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n Skillful and competitive player, who improved his shooting last season. He tries hard on defense, and he\u2019s huge \u2014 at least 6-8 and getting stronger because of a borderline psycho offseason regimen.<\/p>\n The competitiveness has led to excessive fouling and turnovers, which have undermined his overall impact. He was named a starter at the beginning of trainging camp, and he had a great preseason.<\/p>\n Players most like George tended to improve at this point in their careers, though the improvement was somewhat modest. George seems primed for a major leap, however.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 87DOPP: 88MILK: 100***SIMP: 68SAGE: 78BLEND: 84 NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n The uber talented, hyper-athletic forward was Washington\u2019s prize for sustained losing. He was the No. 1 overall selection in a historically good draft, and he has all the tools to be an elite scorer for the next dozen years.<\/p>\n The Wizards may have to wait to see him in regular season action \u2014 he turned an ankle in the final preseason game and is listed as day-to-day. (My guess: he plays. He\u2019s 19-years-old and is probably already fully healed.)<\/p>\n For forecasting rookies, I use a system based on production over the past decade from players in a similar draft position.<\/p>\n Forecasted Rookie PPA: 121 NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n Davis has been a great player, especially on the defensive end in the postseason. His regular season defensive impact has been more hit or miss, which could be said of his shooting away from the basket (though more miss than hit). And he\u2019s tended to get hurt a lot. And he\u2019s aging. And he wants a massive contract extension.<\/p>\n My guess is he\u2019ll miss time again, though not as much as previous seasons. I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll appear in enough games to qualify for awards. The hope is that he\u2019s healthy enough for long enough that Sarr and the other youngsters can learn from his defensive communication.<\/p>\n Don\u2019t be shocked if he\u2019s elsewhere by the trade deadline.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 157DOPP: 143MILK: 130SIMP: 169SAGE: 140BLEND: 146*** NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n The No. 2 overall selection in the 2024 NBA Draft, Sarr is another of Washington\u2019s tanking prizes. After one of the least efficient offensive seasons in NBA history as a rookie, Sarr improved significantly at that end. He showed off a much improved post game, better shooting from everywhere, and even some passing chops.<\/p>\n His strength seemed to be on defense, where he held his own switching onto perimeter players and was a busy and effective rim protector. The presence of Davis and Ayton should alleviate some of the burden he had to shoulder, which could result in a more efficient and effective player.<\/p>\n Still just 21-years-old, Sarr could develop into a truly great player over the next few seasons. The next two are when NBA players typically make their biggest leaps.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 132DOPP: 140MILK: 191SIMP: 116SAGE: 168BLEND: 154*** NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n This is a make or break season for French wing. Coulibaly is long, quick, fast, and bouncy, which helps make him into an effective and disruptive defender.<\/p>\n His offensive game has been an adventure. Passive at times, over-aggressive at others. His three-point shooting has been deficient, though defenders have had trouble staying in front of him when he decides to drive.<\/p>\n He\u2019s improved each season of his career and is at a crossroads \u2014 he\u2019s a restricted free agent at the end of the season, unless he unexpectedly reaches an agreement on an extension.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 101DOPP: 112***MILK: 131SIMP: 88SAGE: 114BLEND: 111 Getty Images<\/p>\n Acquired to be a backup big and an insurance policy against Davis\u2019 frequent outages, Ayton is also at a career crossroads. He\u2019s talented and fairly productive, and his teams keep wanting to get rid of him.<\/p>\n In Washington, he\u2019ll primarily come off the bench for the first time in his career (assuming Davis plays) but should get plenty of minutes. If he buys in and produces, he\u2019ll likely command at least an MLE-level deal going forward. If not, he could be relegated to minimum salary deals.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 144DOPP: 140MILK: 141SIMP: 137SAGE: 134BLEND: 138*** Getty Images<\/p>\n Carrington has yet to miss a game in his two NBA seasons. He\u2019s competitive and shot above 40% on threes last season. He\u2019s likely to play less this season, and probably wouldn\u2019t have played so much on a better team.<\/p>\n The quality of his play didn\u2019t tick up despite the better shooting. He\u2019ll need to get better at both ends to maintain a spot in the rotation.<\/p>\n Last PPA: 61DOPP: 77***MILK: 88SIMP: 60SAGE: 87BLEND: 78 NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n Good-maybe-great shooter. The question on Johnson is whether he can show more dimension to his game \u2014 some playmaking, a few more rebounds, better defense. It wouldn\u2019t hurt to get a lot stronger, which may take some time since he\u2019s still just 20-years-old.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n