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Zak Hanshew<\/a> 8+ years betting experience<\/p>\n \n Updated: \u2022 4 min read<\/p>\n Pacers cover the -5.5 spread tonight. <\/p>\n Photo By – Reuters Connect. Cooper Flagg, Tyrese Haliburton<\/p>\n Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers host Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, Oct. 23.<\/p>\n My Mavericks vs. Pacers prediction and NBA picks<\/a> call for Indiana to cover the spread as the modest favorite in its home opener.<\/p>\n I\u2019m backing Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac to lead Indiana to victory, and Cooper Flagg to lead Dallas’s scoring charge.<\/p>\n \u00a0TOP PICK The Dallas Mavericks<\/a> have a strong 1-2 punch in Cooper Flagg<\/a> and Kyrie Irving<\/a>, but beyond them, the team lacks playmakers and go-to scorers.<\/p>\n Dallas will be shorthanded in the frontcourt without Santi Aldama<\/a> and Dereck Lively II<\/a>, and starting center Daniel Gafford<\/a> logged only 22 minutes in the opener.<\/p>\n The Indiana Pacers<\/a> can exploit the Mavs\u2019 dearth of frontcourt options with Pascal Siakam<\/a> and Ivica Zubac<\/a>, who combined for 46 points and 23 rebounds in the opener.<\/p>\n The Pacers went 9-of-30 from distance, but can improve their efficiency against a Mavs team that allowed Houston to knock down 16-of-36 triples in the opener.<\/p>\n Indiana can still attack on the perimeter and push the pace in transition, but Zubac adds offensive depth in pick-and-roll situations and creates second-chance opportunities.<\/p>\n Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Dallas\u2019 defense was dreadful in the opener against Houston, surrendering 128 points on 53.4% shooting. Indiana\u2019s offense was efficient in its win, scoring 123 points on 52.2% shooting against the Pels.<\/p>\n The Pacers have consistently favored an up-tempo offense with Tyrese Haliburton running the show, and Indiana’s defense is far from elite.<\/p>\n Indiana’s transition offense, three-point shooting, and newly established inside game will create plenty of scoring opportunities, and Dallas should have more breathing room against the Pacers than against the Rockets. <\/p>\n Zubac logged 34 minutes in the season opener, grabbing 15 rebounds to lead the team. Indiana went small-ball at center when he sat, as the Pacers had no other true big men seeing any playing time. Dallas\u2019 shorthanded frontcourt won\u2019t contain Zubac, and I\u2019ll trade his rebounds line to 12.5.<\/p>\n Mavericks vs Pacers combo<\/p>\n Pacers -5.5 Mavericks vs Pacers player props Flagg finished with 25 points only 21 times in 70 games as a rookie, but eight of those came across his last 15 full games, and he carried that momentum into Year 2.<\/p>\n Flagg\u2019s points prop was just 19.5 in Game 1, but after scoring 32 against a strong Rockets defense, that number has understandably risen to 24.5.<\/p>\n Despite the five-point increase, I\u2019m happy to back this line at 55% as Indiana plays at a Top-10 pace with the 16th-ranked Defensive Rating.<\/p>\n Kyrie Irving played only 24 minutes Wednesday, and he\u2019s still ramping up from his ACL injury, which means Flagg will shoulder a hefty offensive load as Dallas\u2019 clear go-to scoring option.<\/p>\n Flagg averaged just 4.9 free throws as a rookie, but he was aggressive in the opener, taking 13 trips to the charity stripe, which gives him a clear path to 25+ points against Indiana.<\/p>\n Pacers player prop: Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists<\/p>\n Tyrese Haliburton<\/a> played well in his return from an Achilles tear suffered in the Finals. He logged 34 minutes and played a key role in the narrow win over New Orleans, finishing with 23 points and 12 assists.<\/p>\n Haliburton and the Pacers return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and the star guard will play his first home game since suffering the injury.<\/p>\n Since 2022-23, Haliburton has played 199 games, averaging 10.1 assists and handing out 10+ in 115 of them. He\u2019s been even better at home, averaging 10.6 dimes and finishing with 10+ in 66 of 104 contests, good for a 63.5% hit rate.<\/p>\n With Zubac in the fold to operate as an effective screener and roll man, Hali has another strong avenue to dish assists. Facing Dallas\u2019 Bottom-5 ranked defense and playing at home, Haliburton should cash the Over, and I\u2019ll trade this one to 55%.<\/p>\n Mavericks vs Pacers odds<\/p>\n For help understanding probabilities, see our\u00a0odds calculator<\/a>.<\/p>\n Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (53%) | Pacers -5.5 (47%) For the full slate of NBA matchups<\/a>, check out our NBA odds<\/a> board!<\/p>\n Mavericks vs Pacers trend<\/p>\n Dallas and Indiana have hit the Game Total Over in four of the last five head-to-head matchups. Find more NBA betting trends<\/a>.<\/p>\n How to watch Mavericks vs Pacers<\/p>\n Location Date Tip off TV Mavericks vs Pacers latest injuries<\/p>\n
\n \u2022 Betting Analyst<\/p>\n
\nOct 23, 2026 , 11:21 AM ET<\/p>\n
Mavericks vs Pacers prediction: Pacers -5.5<\/p>\n![\"Add](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1792772837_565_google-preferred-source-badge.png\"){kind=icon}
<\/a>Mavericks vs Pacers combo<\/p>\n
\nOver 237.5
\nIvica Zubac Over 11.5 rebounds<\/p>\n
\nMavericks player prop: Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points<\/p>\n
\nOver\/Under: Over 237.5 (50%) | Under 237.5 (50%)
\nMoneyline: Mavericks 33% | Pacers 67%<\/p>\n
\nGainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana<\/p>\n
\nFriday, Oct. 23, 2026<\/p>\n
\n7:00 p.m. ET<\/p>\n
\nKFAA-TV, Mavs.TV<\/p>\n