The Dallas Mavericks finally got a win Friday night, and their reward came less than 24 hours later: Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.<\/p>\n
Dallas comes home at 1-1 after beating Indiana 121-105, but the win came with a pretty high cost. Cooper Flagg suffered a left shoulder injury late in the first half and will miss Saturday\u2019s home opener. Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama are also unavailable, leaving Dallas short-handed for one of the worst possible frontcourt matchups.<\/p>\n
San Antonio is 0-2 after losses to Oklahoma City and Houston, but that record shouldn\u2019t make anyone comfortable. Wembanyama scored 25 points and grabbed 13 rebounds Friday against the Rockets, and the Spurs still have plenty of talent to punish a depleted Dallas team.<\/p>\n
Both teams are playing the second night of a back-to-back. Let\u2019s scan the FanDuel board for some value.<\/p>\n
FanDuel Snapshot: Spurs -12.5 | Mavericks +12.5 | Total 231.5.<\/p>\n
I understand why San Antonio is favored this heavily. Flagg is out, Dallas is thin up front, and Wembanyama presents a nightmare matchup for a team already missing Lively.<\/p>\n
Still, 12.5 points is a lot.<\/p>\n
Friday showed Dallas can survive stretches without Flagg if Kyrie Irving looks like himself and P.J. Washington plays with the same physicality he showed against Indiana. Kyrie scored 24 points and hit five threes, while Washington finished with 20 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks.<\/p>\n
Dallas also got meaningful production from Max Christie, Naji Marshall and Zaccharie Risacher. That doesn\u2019t mean I trust the Mavericks to win this game, but it gives them enough ways to stay competitive at home.<\/p>\n
San Antonio is also on a back-to-back and hasn\u2019t looked dominant in two games. Give me the 12.5 points and hope Kyrie can keep Dallas within striking distance.<\/p>\n
This one mostly comes down to how I expect Dallas to play without Flagg.<\/p>\n
The Mavericks lose one of their best transition players and one of the guys most capable of turning a rebound or turnover into immediate offense. Without him, the game should become much more Kyrie-heavy in the half-court, with Washington, Marshall and Christie handling more of the secondary creation.<\/p>\n
That probably means a slower and uglier offensive game for Dallas.<\/p>\n
San Antonio\u2019s first two games have also finished below this number, with combined totals of 220 against Oklahoma City and 224 against Houston. Dallas has enough defensive issues for Wembanyama and the Spurs to score, but I am less convinced the Mavericks do enough offensively to push this game into the 230s.<\/p>\n
Victor Wembanyama over 11.5 rebounds<\/p>\n
This is the matchup play.<\/p>\n
Wembanyama grabbed 13 rebounds Friday against Houston, and Dallas enters tonight with an extremely thin frontcourt. Lively is out, Gafford played fewer than 15 minutes against Indiana, and Morez Johnson Jr. is a rookie being asked to handle significant center minutes.<\/p>\n
Washington can help on the glass, but Dallas simply lacks size.<\/p>\n
Wembanyama should have plenty of opportunities on both ends, especially if the Mavericks struggle to shoot without Flagg. His rebounding line sits at 11.5.<\/p>\n
Daniel Gafford under 6.5 rebounds<\/p>\n
This one is more about role than matchup.<\/p>\n
Gafford played only 14:36 against Indiana despite starting. He finished with three rebounds and did not play during the most important stretch of the fourth quarter. Dusty May instead leaned on smaller lineups and gave Morez Johnson Jr. extended minutes at center.<\/p>\n
That makes a 6.5 rebound line pretty interesting.<\/p>\n
Gafford has averaged 7.6 rebounds across the larger sample attached to tonight\u2019s market, but the recent playing-time trend is the concern. The current prop line is 6.5 rebounds, and one projection has him at just 4.7 tonight.<\/p>\n
The obvious counterargument is that Dallas desperately needs size against Wembanyama, which could force May to play Gafford more. But Friday showed that being the starting center does not guarantee anything close to starter minutes in this rotation.<\/p>\n
Until May shows he is willing to consistently give Gafford 25-plus minutes, I would rather bet the under than assume the matchup suddenly changes his role.<\/p>\n
Mavericks +12.5 because San Antonio still has to prove it can separate by 13 on the road against a Dallas team that showed some fight Friday.<\/p>\n
Under 231.5 because losing Flagg should make Dallas slower and more dependent on half-court Kyrie possessions.<\/p>\n
Wembanyama over 11.5 rebounds because the Mavericks are extremely thin inside.<\/p>\n
And Daniel Gafford under 6.5 rebounds because his playing time and fourth-quarter role are way too uncertain to trust him to pile up boards.<\/p>\n
San Antonio is clearly the better team tonight. The question is whether the Spurs are 13 points better on the road, on a back-to-back, while Dallas tries to grind out enough offense without Flagg.<\/p>\n
I am willing to make them prove it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Dallas Mavericks finally got a win Friday night, and their reward came less than 24 hours later:…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":866905,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3793],"tags":[7,39461,686,149,4057,166,39459,39460,6],"class_list":["post-866904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-dallas-mavericks","tag-basketball","tag-betting-and-daily-fantasy","tag-dallas","tag-dallas-mavericks","tag-dallasmavericks","tag-mavericks","tag-mavericks-game-coverage","tag-mavericks-odds","tag-nba"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/117498115720148424","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=866904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/866904\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/866905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=866904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=866904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=866904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}