{"id":869920,"date":"2026-10-28T11:27:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T11:27:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/869920\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T11:27:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T11:27:34","slug":"early-season-trends-and-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/869920\/","title":{"rendered":"Early season trends and analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Hawks are 2-2. It\u2019s a slightly disappointing turn of events after dismantling the Charlotte Hornets to a franchise-best game margin two games in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The hope is that the Houston Rockets turn out to be a great team this season to make the recent sweep at their hands look less dispiriting in time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But there are still 78 games left to go even if not. It\u2019s way too early to press the alarm button.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">It\u2019s also difficult draw any real conclusions for this Hawks team, but I\u2019ll try anyway from a statistical point of view. Let\u2019s touch on a few points of emphasis I noticed four games in.<\/p>\n<p>Pace and three-point rate check-in<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">What kind of team are the Atlanta Hawks, really?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Well, some things are hard to tease out with such a small sample size of the season. However, pace and three-point rate are two things that stabilize <a href=\"https:\/\/fansided.com\/2017\/12\/21\/nylon-calculus-team-stats-noise-stabilization-thunder\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">quite early on from year-to-year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Hawks pace over the past two seasons has been juiced by their high turnover rates on defense, giving them plenty opportunities to score in transition. As of Tuesday, October 27, their defensive turnover rate (TOV%) is 13.9. Or in other words, out of every 100 defensive possessions, they are forcing around 14 turnovers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This has led them to being a top 10 team in pace (102.5 possessions per 48 minutes) so far this season \u2014 wholly unsurprising considering their quick-paced teams of late.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">A lot of this is driven by the Great Barrier Thief, Dyson Daniels, who has 14 steals (!) in four games which leads the NBA. Those opportunities quite often lead to Alexander-Walker flaring to the wing for open threes or Jalen Johnson run out dunks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">As for the three-point rate, the Hawks are putting up 44.6% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc, slightly up from last season\u2019s 42.9% rate. Both marks had them 11th in the NBA respectively.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The offense is built to move the ball and seek high value shots like catch-and-shoot threes \u2014 but oddly those attempts aren\u2019t coming from the corner to this point. The Hawks have the 27th corner three-point rate with 18.3% of threes from that location \u2014 the most efficient three-point area due to its slightly shorter distance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">That might help explain their poor shooting so far this season, hitting just 33.1% long range of total attempts, down from their top five finish in 2025-26 (37.1%).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But in reality, this is likely noise and a touch of bad luck. Three-point shooting is one of the last major metrics to statistically stabilize, so there\u2019s no reason to worry yet (including with respect to the center pairing discussed below).<\/p>\n<p>Dyson Daniels, still indispensable \u2014 on both ends of the floor<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">We know Quin Snyder likes to spread the ball handling duties on offense in the post-Trae Young pivot they made over roughly the past calendar year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">A big key to this is getting the other guards to screen and cut off the ball. It helps to have good perimeter size and physicality at all the backcourt spots when possible, and one guy above all accentuates this aim.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Dyson Daniels is an all-world defender, and his tape over the past four games looks just as good as it did during his runner-up finish in the 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year campaign.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But let\u2019s talk about the other side of the floor for a bit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Daniels is often a lightning rod for discussion, largely over his inability to stretch the floor despite (ostensibly) being a guard. But he\u2019s among the best guards in the entire NBA at screening and cutting, often getting the ball around the free throw line giving him the option to shoot his patented floater or kick to corner shooters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I call him a false center on offense because his role resembles that of your standard pick-and-roll big man, just in a 6\u20197\u201d package. The threat of a pass out of the short roll is usually all he needs to get his flip floater shot over defenders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Also, he\u2019s dished out 14 assists this season against just three turnovers \u2014 efficient but notably playing less on the ball with Aaron Wiggins and Kingston Flemings joining the fold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">In this manner, he\u2019s incredibly valuable to threatening the rim and giving a bit more space to shooters like a traditional above-the-rim center would be. Just like last season, the offense is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbpstats.com\/wowy-combos\/nba?TeamId=1610612737&amp;Season=2026-27&amp;SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&amp;PlayerIds=1630700\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">better with him on the floor<\/a> than off (albeit a drop from around seven to two points per 100 possessions from last season to this one).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So while it sure would be nice for him to his more than one three in four games, the offense is far from reliant on it.<\/p>\n<p>The shooting centers need to keep shooting<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Related to Dyson Daniels\u2019 shooting woes, with the Hawks running the inverted offense where Daniels is screening and cutting, it\u2019s important to get floor spacing from the other positions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The two centers (Onyeka Okongwu and Jock Landale) spacing the floor is rather key to allow these actions to flourish .<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">However, through four games, Okongwu and Landale are a combined 4-for-28 (14%) from three \u2014 including a 1-for-15 (8%) mark across the two-game Rockets sweep.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I don\u2019t have a lot to add for this one other than the shooters need to keep shooting. It\u2019s as simple as that. Turning down open threes will just junk of the Hawks offense even more.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Okongwu and Landale are fairly limited in other areas, including defensive rebounding (see below), so their value as a stretch center is paramount to let Daniels play his funky offensive game.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Shots will fall. Okongwu shot 38% from three last year, including hitting the most threes by a Hawks center in franchise history. Landale shot 38% as well. There\u2019s no reason to change boats midstream.<\/p>\n<p>The Hawks might have a defensive rebounding problem<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">There was a possession in the Saturday home game against the Rockets when the Hawks had three chances to secure a defensive rebound. They failed all three times, giving Houston points on their fourth shot of the possession.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_19lkh3w1\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.peachtreehoops.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/122\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-27-163303.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"238\" data-pswp-width=\"377\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"_8s7ip80\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-27-163303.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I mean, they let 6\u20192\u201d Reed Sheppard outwork them. Not a good scene.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Through four games, the Hawks are securing 68.3% of available defensive rebounds \u2014 a mark good for just 27th in the NBA.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Some of it was going against an elite rebounding team twice in the Rockets. But they\u2019ve also had to downsize a bit in the wake of the Mouhamed Gueye injury. 6\u20194\u201d Luguentz Dort has been a primary backup at power forward when Jalen Johnson sits.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Dort is a very solid rebounder for his size, but that\u2019s a huge caveat. Okongwu gets heat for his size as well as a starting center, but again he\u2019s a solid rebounder regardless of size \u2014 although not elite.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Okongwu had a healthy 20.3% defensive rebound rate last season (8.7 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions). The team <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbpstats.com\/on-off\/nba\/team?Season=2026-27,2025-26&amp;SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&amp;TeamId=1610612737&amp;PlayerId=1630168\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">has been slightly better at pulling down defensive rebounds<\/a> when Okongwu was on the floor the last two seasons. In that aspect, he pairs well with elite defensive rebounder Jalen Johnson.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This is something of a worrying trend for the early reversal of fortunes this season, unlike poor three-point shooting that will certainly come around in time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The team needs a bit of time to incorporate Dort and reincorporate Landale into their collective glass crashing pursuit. The effort can be a bit better after some film review. But it\u2019s possible that there\u2019s a personnel issue at play.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">If this continues, there may be a growing fan push for a center upgrade towards the trade deadline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Hawks are 2-2. It\u2019s a slightly disappointing turn of events after dismantling the Charlotte Hornets to a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":869921,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3776],"tags":[740,676,208,3874,7,677,6,2294],"class_list":["post-869920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-atlanta-hawks","tag-analysis","tag-atlanta","tag-atlanta-hawks","tag-atlantahawks","tag-basketball","tag-hawks","tag-nba","tag-opinion"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/117518299720030804","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/869920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=869920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/869920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/869921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=869920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=869920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=869920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}