{"id":94201,"date":"2025-06-12T18:42:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T18:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/94201\/"},"modified":"2025-06-12T18:42:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T18:42:09","slug":"how-to-assess-denvers-dramatic-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/94201\/","title":{"rendered":"How to assess Denver’s dramatic season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every statistic that emerges about the Indiana Pacers seems more remarkable than the last, their string of clutch comebacks defining the 2025 playoffs<\/a> while defying logic, history and physics.<\/p>\n

But the most unshakeable stat of them all is probably this: After Tyrese Haliburton\u2019s latest jaw-dropping jumper stole Game 1 of the NBA Finals last week, he had made 13 of 15 field goal attempts with a chance to tie or take the lead in the last two minutes this season. Once in all four rounds of the playoffs, he has scored inside of 1.5 seconds remaining to save the Pacers from a loss.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an unprecedented run of dramatic shot-making, the kind that almost renders any other form of analysis futile. Could it be that Indiana is an unusually weak Finals team<\/a> that has had everything break the right way for it, including an 8-foot bounce? Maybe, but questions like that seem unfair after the same pattern repeats itself so many times. The more appropriate idea might be when it should cease to be regarded as coincidence.<\/p>\n

The same can be posited about the 2024-25 Nuggets, perhaps to a lesser extent. As team president Josh Kroenke has lamented, assessing their season is especially difficult when they were one win away from the Western Conference Finals, yet also within arm\u2019s reach of eighth place in the final regular-season standings.<\/p>\n

One wrinkle to that topic \u2014 one that deserves some closure \u2014 is the Nuggets\u2019 ability to comport themselves brilliantly under pressure. Last-second outcomes tend to be perceived as capricious. If an NBA game is decided by the last shot, make or miss, the implication of flukiness looms over all ensuing discussion.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s the correct way to evaluate end-of-game situations, then Denver was closer to losing in five games against OKC than it was to winning the series. But what about when Haliburton makes that shot 13 out of 15 times? Or when the Nuggets consistently find ways to out-execute their opponents in the last 30 seconds?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just that the Nuggets finished the regular season with the third-best clutch net rating in the league, outscoring their opponents by a resounding 17 points per 100 possessions when the margin of a game was five or fewer in the last five minutes. It\u2019s more than that.<\/p>\n

Last December, The Denver Post attempted to measure the Nuggets\u2019 hyper-clutch success by making up a bootleg premise called GOLP<\/a>: Game On the Line Possessions. These are possessions during the last 30 seconds of regulation or the last 30 seconds of overtime when the offensive team is either tied or trailing by three points or fewer. Possessions that make you gulp.<\/p>\n

(You can read more about GOLP criteria and GOLP success rate here.<\/a>)<\/p>\n

At the time, it felt like Denver was on a Haliburtonian heater during GOLPs. Now that an unusually theatrical season is over, The Post went back and collected the final data.<\/p>\n

The Nuggets played 22 regular-season games featuring a GOLP, then five more in the playoffs. That adds up to 28% of their 96 total games. In a league where blowouts are the norm, that\u2019s \u2026 a lot.<\/p>\n

Denver\u2019s offense scored 53 points in 39 possessions that subjectively qualified as GOLPs, shooting 17 of 33 from the field (51.5%), 5 of 13 from the 3-point line (38.5%), 12 of 20 from 2-point range (60%) and 14 of 18 from the foul line (77.8%). That\u2019s good for a 135.9 offensive rating. The team\u2019s success rate at tying or taking the lead was 53.4%. Only four turnovers were committed on GOLPs \u2014 perhaps most notably Nikola Jokic\u2019s errant pass into the backcourt against none other than Indiana, in what turned out to be Michael Malone\u2019s last game.<\/p>\n

Jokic\u2019s interior scoring was one of the most reliable sources of GOLP production. But the spread of wealth was fairly comprehensive, at least for a team that lacked depth. None of those five 3-pointers were made by Jokic. Rather, they belonged to Jamal Murray (Lakers), Christian Braun (Suns), Russell Westbrook (Clippers) and Aaron Gordon twice (Thunder both times). Michael Porter Jr. also made a game-winner from the midrange against Dallas.<\/p>\n

Those moments from the supporting cast enabled the Nuggets to win games they might\u2019ve otherwise lost. At the same time, role players clearly didn\u2019t strike enough fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. Jokic spent the playoffs dealing with crowds in the paint, and each of Denver\u2019s other six rotation players shot worse than 38% from 3 in the postseason. New head coach David Adelman has pinpointed consistent shooting as the most important skillset Denver needs more of.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a premium on shot-making at the times you need it. And when you get to those moments, it\u2019s not just about making shots during the season,\u201d he said in a comment that has resonated throughout Indiana\u2019s run while role players have sprayed 3s.<\/p>\n

\u201cI never look at percentages, because that\u2019s not real when you get into those moments,\u201d Adelman continued. \u201cIt\u2019s about the repetition, the confidence of making shots in those big games. And it\u2019s a talent. \u2026 It\u2019s not just making shots. It\u2019s making shots in the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for Denver\u2019s opponents: They scored 27 points on 33 GOLPs this season. They shot 10 for 34 from the field (29.4%) and 3 for 13 from 3 (23%). They attempted only seven free throws.<\/p>\n

Are those percentages real or not? Were the Nuggets simply exceptional at defending without fouling when they needed a stop all season? Or did they benefit from uncontrollable variables working out in their favor, such as DeMar DeRozan fumbling a pass on the baseline, or RJ Barrett\u2019s shot rimming out? Maybe Westbrook\u2019s double-overtime gaffe against Minnesota wouldn\u2019t have happened if the Wolves\u2019 shot selection had been better at the end of regulation, or the end of the first overtime. They had already foiled two chances to win.<\/p>\n

Maybe Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should\u2019ve scored that 10-footer at the end of Game 3 in the conference semifinals, even contested. He did win MVP, after all. If he makes that shot, the series conceivably ends in five games, not seven.<\/p>\n

In total, Denver\u2019s opponents finished the season with an 81.8 offensive rating on GOLPs. A success rate of 35.4%. Sure, there were a couple of crushing losses. But those overall numbers pale in comparison to what the Nuggets accomplished on the offensive end, where they even pulled off a win after one GOLP resulted in Jokic chucking a ghastly airball. As Kroenke has noted, they could\u2019ve been a first-round exit without Gordon\u2019s tip dunk one one-thousandth of a second before the buzzer.<\/p>\n

Parsing the luck from the situational skill can be tricky. It\u2019s a heavy responsibility for Denver\u2019s front office this summer.<\/p>\n

Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.<\/a><\/p>\n

Originally Published: June 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM MDT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Every statistic that emerges about the Indiana Pacers seems more remarkable than the last, their string of clutch…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94202,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3781],"tags":[877,7,561,765,250,3213,301,187,3943,766,762,3787,165,4231,764,252,6,1220,253,302,254,209,66,574,3460],"class_list":{"0":"post-94201","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-denver-nuggets","8":"tag-aaron-gordon","9":"tag-basketball","10":"tag-christian-braun","11":"tag-colorado","12":"tag-david-adelman","13":"tag-demar-derozan","14":"tag-denver","15":"tag-denver-nuggets","16":"tag-denvernuggets","17":"tag-front-range","18":"tag-jamal-murray","19":"tag-josh-kroenke","20":"tag-latest-headlines","21":"tag-michael-malone","22":"tag-michael-porter","23":"tag-more-nuggets-news","24":"tag-nba","25":"tag-nba-finals","26":"tag-nikola-jokic","27":"tag-nuggets","28":"tag-russell-westbrook","29":"tag-shai-gilgeous-alexander","30":"tag-sports","31":"tag-western-conference","32":"tag-western-conference-finals"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/114671868048204581","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94201\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}