Nine months after tearing his ACL, Patrick Mahomes returns Monday night for the Chiefs’ home opener against a Denver defense that has made these divisional matchups bruising affairs lately. Bo Nix is also back after a scary injury in the AFC Championship game, and now has new acquisition Jaylen Waddle joining him for the trip to Arrowhead. Both quarterbacks enter without an injury designation, so we’re operating as if it’s all systems (mostly?) go. Kansas City’s offensive line, however, is where this matchup might be decided: starting left tackle Josh Simmons is out with a back injury, and the Broncos are going to flood that edge like you would not believe. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson will fill in for Simmons against a defense that buried quarterbacks to the tune of 68 sacks last season. Denver can test Nix’s blind side with Nik Bonitto while Zach Allen works through the interior, so wherever the Chiefs send help, there’ll be an underbelly and a Bronco arrow waiting to pierce it. Keeping a back or tight end in protection would give Benson some assistance, and I’d expect Reid to have Mahomes check into those looks. But then, of course, those players then become unavailable for immediate throws. Vance Joseph, no matter what, will have myriad opportunities to generate pressure with four rushers, and keep his elite secondary in coverage.
Kansas City will have prepared for precisely this; they are no strangers to devastating injuries to their offensive line when their quarterback is a bit banged up (see: Super Bowl vs. Bucs). Rashee Rice is back from injury and legal issues both, and he commanded 26.2% of Kansas City’s targets last season; quick completions to him can keep Mahomes upright. Having said that, Rice looked a bit like he lost a step in camp. Keep an eye on that. Ken Walker III is KC’s most exciting addition, he adds a feature-back element to this offense that’s long been missing. He’ll help Mahomes avoid third-and-long, provided Denver allows him to get through the first tackle. Look for Walker to be active in the receiving game, too; Joseph has already acknowledged that opponents intend to attack his defense with shorter throws. Still, across four meetings since Joseph returned in 2023, Mahomes has thrown three touchdowns against four interceptions, and taken 12 sacks.
Nix faces yet another maelstrom from the sorcerer Steve Spagnuolo, with Chris Jones officially off the injury report despite a calf issue reported in practice this week. Bo averaged just 6.4 YPA last season; expecting a sudden passing eruption with the arrival of Waddle and the ascension of Pat Bryant would be ambitious right out the 2026 gate. His line is the best in the league, however, and his prudent decisionmaking at the position did, however, limit TFL damage to 22 sacks alongside 612 attempts.
Broncos vs. Chiefs pick, best bet
Waddle gives new playcaller Davis Webb an appealing place to fold in a new element to this offense. He finished seventh among qualifying receivers in first downs per route last season, and moving him around should test a secondary missing Chamarri Conner. Courtland Sutton remains available when coverage follows Waddle. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins is also back healthy for now; he churned out 772 yards on 153 carries before his injury last season. He took 54.9% of those carries on zone runs; Kansas City allowed the eighth-highest success rate against that blocking scheme. Productive early carries would let Nix approach third down with considerably more freedom.
Denver should be able to sustain possessions through that combination of protection, running efficiency, and improved receiving talent. Mahomes will find his answers, especially underneath—Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and camp sensation Cyrus Allen should see to that—but Kansas City will need to establish those answers while protecting a vulnerable edge. The Broncos have the healthier offensive setup, and a defense with an archival production profile of disrupting this particular quarterback. Denver +2.5 at -110 is the pick, with a narrow outright win worth a solid sprinkle if you woke up after Sunday night with a purse. I’m also not begrudging a single person who buys this down to Broncos +3. We want to see green this week.
Best bet: Broncos +2.5 (-110)
Projected score: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
Best Bet: Broncos +2.5 (-110) vs. Chiefs