Two NFL head coaches made bold proclamations heading into the 2026 season.

One of them looks smarter than the other today.

Ben Johnson said his Chicago Bears hoped to average 38 points per game, enough to set a single-season scoring record. Jim Harbaugh said his Los Angeles Chargers quarterback, Justin Herbert, would go down as the greatest in league history.

After Johnson’s Bears ran all over Carolina’s defense during a 59-37 victory, Harbaugh’s Chargers fell 26-14 at home to the Arizona Cardinals, who entered Week 1 as the heaviest underdog (+10.5) by far.

The first Pick Six column of this new season leads with an analysis of the Chargers’ dispiriting opener and a look at why Herbert won’t become the best QB in franchise history, let alone the league.

We’ll also run through how all the new offensive play callers fared, from the Chargers’ Mike McDaniel to Baltimore’s Declan Doyle (41 points!) and Cleveland’s Todd Monken (49 plays!). We’ll include Buffalo’s Joe Brady (409 yards against Houston’s defense!) now that he’s calling plays as a head coach for the first time. The full menu:

• About that Herbert GOAT talk
• Doyle, Monken and new callers
• Rams, Panthers paid for this?
• Why Rams should be concerned
• Stroud, Young and second deals
• Two-minute drill: Cards and Vikes

1. When it’s all said and done, will Herbert be a top-three QB in Chargers history? Here’s why the deck is stacked against him.

A defensive coach who has faced Herbert multiple times compares and contrasts the Chargers’ quarterback to Josh Allen.

Both are a tick slower than most top quarterbacks at seeing the game and processing it, this coach said. That gives defenses a chance to counter their superior athletic and throwing ability. The way the defensive coach sees things, Allen has been in the same offense long enough to improve his processing (this is his fourth season with Brady calling plays). That has helped him ascend. Herbert, in contrast, is on his fifth offensive coordinator in seven NFL seasons.

“I still like the guy and think he’s good,” this defensive coach said of Herbert. “But if he does have a little success, Mike (McDaniel) will get a new job as a head coach. He just has to have a decent year, and the cycle will continue for the quarterback.”

Both the Bills and Chargers have invested resources into building strong offensive lines for their quarterbacks. While Buffalo has succeeded, the Chargers have struggled. Injuries at tackle wiped out their line last season. Weakness on the interior figures to be a problem this season, giving Herbert less time to process.

Sunday’s first impression was not encouraging, as the Chargers managed just 14 points and 268 yards against a defense that finished 28th in EPA per play last season. The chest injury that knocked top receiver Ladd McConkey from the game in the third quarter marked a turning point. The Chargers averaged 6.3 yards on the 26 plays with McConkey on the field but only 4.2 across the 25 plays without him. Herbert’s EPA per pass play plummeted from +0.22 to -0.33.

Top Plays from Cardinals @ Chargers

As for Harbaugh, he’ll remain the ultimate cheerleader for his quarterback.

“Justin Herbert, when it’s all said and done, when his career comes to an end, I predict he will be known as the greatest, best ever to play the position of quarterback,” Harbaugh said heading into this season.

The comment recalled what Harbaugh said in 2011 about Alex Smith, then his quarterback with the 49ers.

“He’s every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now,” Harbaugh said then.

Smith had tossed 10 touchdowns while going 7-1 as a starter under Harbaugh to that point, ranking 21st in EPA per pass play. Aaron Rodgers had 24 touchdown passes over the same period. Drew Brees had 21. Tom Brady had 20. Smith was not nearly as elite as those guys, but Harbaugh didn’t care.

The interesting thing about Herbert is not whether he’ll go down as the “greatest, best ever” quarterback in league history. That isn’t happening. The interesting part is whether Herbert can make anything close to the jump his long-ago Hall of Fame Chargers predecessor, Dan Fouts, made at the same point in his career.

Fouts, like Herbert, was solid but unspectacular for the Chargers during his first six NFL seasons.

Fouts ranked fifth in yards per attempt and 12th in passer rating among 24 quarterbacks with at least 40 starts over his first six seasons, commanding zero MVP votes. His career trajectory changed when Don Coryell took over as the Chargers’ head coach entering his seventh season. Fouts then ranked first in yards per attempt and second to Joe Montana in passer rating over the next six seasons. He was named first-team All-Pro twice and finished among the top six in MVP voting four times.

Herbert will never play for Coryell, who was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame posthumously in 2023. He is getting to play for the only coach since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to score 70 points in a game. But McDaniel probably won’t be with the Chargers for the long term, and the Chargers’ offensive depth is concerning, especially if McConkey misses time.

Harbaugh has been at his best when able to assemble an all-star staff. He sets the tone but isn’t a differentiating offensive designer able to elevate an offense by himself. Longer term, Herbert might need the Chargers to hire the next Coryell, not the next Harbaugh.

It was only one week. It must be better next week against the Raiders, ahead of a seven-game stretch against the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens, with five of those on the road.

“They are going to have their hands full with the Raiders next week,” another coach said, “because the Raiders are organized, they have a veteran quarterback and their defensive front is decent.”

2. Seventeen new offensive play callers and the Bills’ Brady debuted in new roles through Sunday. Here’s how to make sense of their performances quickly.

NFL offenses averaged more than 24 points per game in Week 1, which would be the highest for an opening week this century if it holds through Monday night. Teams were under center on early downs 50.4 percent of the time, the highest rate for any week since the 2017 season. The final week of the 2025 season ranks second at 47.1 percent, affirming a trend that is helping offenses present a run threat more convincingly.

Coaches can be quick to offer theories as to why. The absence of offseason tackling and preseason reps rank high on their list, but those aren’t new developments. A quick look at preseason playing time over the past eight seasons showed no correlation.

And so we’ll give some of these offenses their due. The jobs Arizona’s Mike LaFleur, Las Vegas’ Klint Kubiak and the New York Jets’ Frank Reich executed Sunday stand apart because those three offensive play callers revived units that ranked 21st (Cardinals), 29th (Jets) and 31st (Raiders) in EPA per play last season. And all three won.

We begin with the offensive play callers burdened not by their teams’ recent struggles, but rather those leading offenses where good might not be good enough. Brady, the Bills’ offensive play caller since 2023, makes the list because this is his first season calling plays without having to run the game plan past the head coach.

Joe Brady, Bills: Allen’s numbers in two games against Houston over the past two seasons were far worse than they were against seven other opponents he faced more than once over that span. His passer rating (62.2), yards per attempt (6.0), completion percentage (51.6) and EPA per pass play (-0.11) in those two losses at Houston were all evidence that the Texans’ defense was on the verge of becoming legendary.

This Bills performance ranks No. 1 against the Texans in 39 total games over the past three seasons by points scored (36), EPA per play (0.28), yards per play (8.1) and yards per pass attempt (11.5). It validated the Bills’ standing as the No. 1 team in the AFC, as projected by league executives heading into the season. Big relief for Bills fans.

DJ Moore caught five passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in his debut game for the Bills after Buffalo endured criticism for the price it paid Chicago to acquire him. This game was a success for Brady on offense by just about any measure.

Bills edge Texans in Week 1 thriller

Declan Doyle, Baltimore: Losing receiver Zay Flowers to a hamstring injury (and Ja’Kobi Lane to a reported broken wrist) was the downside to Baltimore’s 506-yard performance in a blowout victory over Indianapolis. Doyle, eight seasons removed from being a student assistant at Iowa, dazzled in his first game as a play caller at any level.

As promised, Doyle had Lamar Jackson under center on early downs at a heightened rate. Jackson set career highs for plays (14) and passing yards (114) in those situations, averaging 14.3 yards on 13 pass attempts.

The Ravens’ production was far better than their 2023 debut game under Monken (265 yards), but nowhere near the 643-yard effort in Greg Roman’s 2019 debut game as coordinator, a 59-10 victory at Miami in Jackson’s first full season as starting QB.

As an exec who had the Bills and Ravens 1-2 in the AFC entering the season said: “I like that they are going to have a motivated Lamar Jackson. The offense and the offensive coordinator will challenge him in a way he hasn’t been challenged in quite some time.”

Drew Petzing, Lions: The Lions held off the Saints in overtime largely because officials (correctly?) ruled Jared Goff’s backward pass as an incompletion, wiping out a New Orleans touchdown return. A win is a win is a win, right? The Lions averaged 5.3 yards per pass attempt, Detroit’s lowest figure in an opener since 2010. But they scored touchdowns on all five red zone trips to prevail.

Sean Mannion, Eagles: The Eagles won with only 10 first downs, their lowest figure in an opener this century and their lowest in any victory since 2003. But six of those came on third down, including third-and-18 and third-and-goal from the 17. Jalen Hurts tossed three touchdown passes, including a 43-yarder to Dallas Goedert in the fourth quarter, without a turnover in the first game of the post-A.J. Brown era. It’s a start.

Mike McDaniel, Chargers: See above.

This group of coordinators faces pressure to succeed this season, but none has a top-tier quarterback. Denver’s Davis Webb would be in this group, but his Broncos do not play until Monday night. Tampa Bay’s Zac Robinson stood out Sunday. His offense carried a high success rate, with nearly 46 percent of plays gaining EPA, but four lost fumbles, including three by Baker Mayfield, short-circuited the overall production in a 33-27 defeat at Cincinnati.

Mike McCarthy’s first game as Steelers coach was his 171st with Aaron Rodgers in the lineup. Their 20-13 victory over the Falcons ranked 170th among those games in offensive EPA (-19.1). The costliest play (-5.3 EPA) had little to do with McCarthy or Rodgers, as running back Jaylen Warren lost a fumble in the first quarter.

The Giants’ Matt Nagy leads the six play callers new to their teams in the third group. All six are working with highly drafted (or highly paid) young quarterbacks whose franchises need them to ascend this season.

With Greg Roman leading the run game under new coach John Harbaugh, Nagy delivered in the opener. Dart, making his 13th start since the Giants drafted him in the first round last year, set career highs in EPA per pass play (0.65), passer rating (134.2) and completion rate (79.3) in a 28-20 upset victory over Dallas. The Giants’ overall EPA per play (0.29) was their second-best in 104 games (including playoffs) since 2020. Dart still took too many hard hits, but that is something the team can worry about after celebrating a huge opening-week performance.

An exec ranking Cleveland 16th in the AFC heading into the season said the Browns “doubled down on toxic” by bringing back Deshaun Watson as their starter. Whatever Cleveland doubled down on came up bust in Monken’s first game. Former Browns coach Kevin Stefanski fared even worse statistically in his debut game with Atlanta, albeit with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees calling the plays.

As the long-ago offensive coordinator Ernie Zampese used to say, if you want to be a good quarterback coach, get yourself a good quarterback. Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett and the Jets’ Geno Smith are better than Watson or the Falcons’ Cooper Rush, which has lots to do with how these new play callers stacked up in Week 1.

3. Two of the biggest offseason buyers on defense could not stop their opponents from combining for 86 points and 931 yards.

The most expensive investments teams make in the offseason are for the long term.

The Panthers and Rams could still come out fine there. They were less than fine in Week 1.

The only teams to acquire more than one veteran whose average annual salary ranked among the top 10 in the league on defense — Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd for Carolina, Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie for Los Angeles — put up little resistance on defense.

Chicago lit up the Panthers for eight touchdowns during a 59-37 victory, scoring more points than anyone had previously scored against Carolina. San Francisco cruised to a 27-7 victory over the Rams and their rebuilt defense in Australia.

Lower-cost additions by the Bears and 49ers shined.

With new center Garrett Bradbury (one year, $4.7 million) in the lineup, Chicago rushed for 291 of its 552 yards, including 68 scramble yards by Williams. The Bears’ eight offensive touchdowns equaled a franchise record, the first time the team had hit the mark since 1980 and the fifth time in its 107-season history, per Pro Football Reference.

The Bears got eight receptions for 84 yards, plus a 23-yard punt return, from receiver Kalif Raymond, who signed from the Lions on a one-year, $3.5 million deal.

Chicago did not have a good day on defense, but rookie corner Malik Muhammad picked off one pass and broke up another, while new defensive tackle Kentavius Street had a sack, and new linebacker Devin Bush recovered a fumble.

The 49ers got two of their three touchdown receptions from players new to the team since last season: Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. Samuel added a 12-yard rush and 45-yard kick return.

4. If Rams coach Sean McVay’s postgame comments seemed dramatic, there could be a reason.

The Rams’ 27-7 defeat to the 49ers in Australia felt like more than just one game.

“This will define us only if we allow it to,” McVay said after the game.

There was gravity to McVay’s words and delivery, followed a bit later in his postgame media session with some contextualizing: “This story is far from written.”

Just one game, right? Maybe.

This was the Rams’ ninth-worst defeat by point margin in McVay’s 166 total games as coach.

“The dream teams, the amount of pressure those teams put on themselves, they have to be perfect in every facet,” a coach with no ties to McVay said. “It looks good on paper, but the human component makes it challenging.”

The Myles Garrett situation bears watching after the Rams’ blockbuster offseason acquisition missed time during camp to rest a sore knee, played far below his standards in the opener and then landed on injured reserve so he could have arthroscopic surgery. He will miss at least four weeks.

Delicate situations involving superstar players can test relationships between coaches, executives, doctors, trainers, the player and his representatives. In this case, those relationships are new.

Some who played and worked with Garrett during his nine-year career in Cleveland described him as a supremely competitive game day force who does his own thing to get ready during the week. They saw the potential for tension in the way this game played out, and how Garrett spoke after the game.

“I didn’t feel I was the player I’ve been before when I stepped on the field (in Australia),” Garrett said. “I gotta do what I can to get back to that.”

Garrett said he was not questioning the Rams’ contrarian decision to arrive in Australia just 28 hours before kickoff, a week after the 49ers arrived. How could anyone not question it?

Sports scientists I spoke with said the Rams were spot-on in their handling of the sleep component, but they risked players feeling heavy-legged because it takes time for fluid buildup in the legs to dissipate following such a long flight. The problem can be exacerbated for bigger players like Garrett, who for the first time in his career played at least 55 snaps without recording even one tackle.

“When Myles said he needed to change and do whatever he needed to get himself ready, I took that as either he did not buy into what the team was doing, or there was another ailment going on,” a former Browns assistant said. “It was probably a little bit of both.”

It’s all reading between the lines at this point.

5. The Panthers and Texans resisted handing new contracts to their quarterbacks. Here’s what that means.

Houston’s C.J. Stroud and Carolina’s Bryce Young combined for five touchdown passes while quarterbacking Week 1 offenses that topped 30 points. Both lost against 2025 playoff teams led by quarterbacks with Tier 1 credentials (Josh Allen, who led Buffalo at Houston, 36-31) or Tier 1 potential (Caleb Williams, who led Chicago to a 59-37 victory at Carolina).

The obvious differences between Allen/Williams and Stroud/Young should make any team pause before entering into a top-of-market deal with a mid-tier quarterback.

Stroud’s production to this point in his career includes a No. 20 ranking in EPA per pass play, about the same as the rankings for Trevor Lawrence (21st) and Kyler Murray (22nd) when those players signed top-of-market extensions with Jacksonville and Arizona, respectively.

Young’s No. 34 ranking in EPA per pass play since entering the league tracks with the No. 33 ranking for Daniel Jones when Jones re-signed with the Giants. Young has been trending positively, but he still ranks only 25th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks since the start of last season (Stroud ranks 14th on that list).

The chart above stacks 10 quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2018-23 by how quickly they received second contracts. Lawrence, Murray, Allen and Joe Burrow signed new deals after three seasons, the earliest allowed under labor rules. Jones and Tagovailoa waited as questions about their abilities lingered. Lamar Jackson’s situation was a one-off in that he was a former MVP operating without an agent, which complicated negotiations.

The bottom line: Teams with significant questions about their quarterbacks through three seasons — the Giants with Jones, the Dolphins with Tagovailoa — regretted those decisions enough for others to preserve their flexibility.

6. Two-minute drill: Cardinals and Vikings win

Protecting the football and protecting themselves are among the top responsibilities for professional quarterbacks.

What did Kyler Murray do in his first game with the Vikings? He threw an interception on Minnesota’s first play from scrimmage, then suffered a game-ending concussion when he dove forward, 5 yards short of the first-down marker on third-and-7, later in the first quarter.

The Vikings, like Murray’s former team in Arizona, won without him. It’s a long season, and Murray will presumably return before long. He might even succeed in his first season with the Vikings. But he still has to prove he can handle the basics of the position.

Fortunately for the Vikings, who finished 9-8 last season without any quarterback stability at all, they again demonstrated an ability to persevere. They beat the Packers in all three phases from an EPA standpoint, albeit by the slimmest of margins on special teams.

Carson Wentz’s three touchdown passes, two of them on third down, helped make this the Vikings’ seventh-best offensive EPA game over the past four seasons. Yes, Brian Flores’ blitzing defense was excellent as the game progressed, but the offense did its part under difficult circumstances. …

• The Saints showed something in clawing back from a 21-0 deficit to force the Lions into overtime at Detroit. Tyler Shough showed toughness and poise, validating what opponents said about him in Quarterback Tiers over the summer.

I loved how Shough did not play dead for dramatic effect after Aidan Hutchinson smashed into him and rolled over onto Shough’s face as the QB delivered a late completion while trying to get New Orleans into field goal range. …

• The Bears’ Johnson showed restraint I wasn’t sure he possessed in deciding against going for a 2-point conversion that could have pushed his team to 60 points against Carolina. Look out if the Bears fall one point shy of a league scoring record this season.

Top Plays from Bears @ Panthers

“Tony Medlin, their equipment guy, needs to order some extra polo shirts because Ben Johnson is going to be ripping those off every week at this rate,” one of Johnson’s friends in the business cracked Sunday, referring to the coach’s 2025 Hulkamania performance in a victorious postgame locker room at Philadelphia. …

• The Chargers’ second-half timeout usage against Arizona was atrocious. Two timeouts used on offense — the first just two plays after halftime, and the second facing third-and-30 with the game clock stopped at the 4:24 mark of the fourth quarter — left them with no timeouts in the final two minutes as they tried to rally. Who calls timeout to avoid turning third-and-30 into third-and-35? …

• Green Bay, which lost Sunday after allowing 22 fourth-quarter points, has a league-worst 7-5 record (.583) since the start of last season when leading by at least nine points in second halves. The rest of the league has a 204-23 (.899) record in those games, counting playoffs. That includes a combined 35-0 for Buffalo, Seattle and San Francisco.

• When the NFL extended Roger Goodell’s contract as commissioner last week, I asked Upton Bell, son of 1946-59 commissioner Bert Bell, for thoughts on the evolution of the role. Bell, GM of the Patriots from 1971-72, noted that his father negotiated the first national TV package. His reply, edited for clarity, is below:

“The commissioner’s role has changed drastically from survival under Bert Bell to television under Pete Rozelle, to building independent new stadiums under Paul Tagliabue and, finally, to Goodell as the dealmaker,” Upton Bell said. “Roger Goodell has really grown the game money-wise. He delivered both more TV and more streaming channels. He promised to grow the game financially, which makes the billionaire owners happy.

“In the future, there will be NFL franchises around the world. I believe, unlike many sports leagues, the NFL has had mostly the right person at the right time. Today’s owners are different and want to control everything, but Goodell knows how to deal in that world perfectly.”