After months of speculation, we have now seen every team in action, giving us some clarity on who is a potential contender for the Super Bowl. Even though the title game is months away, now is the time to add to your portfolio, grabbing numbers before they move against us to help create profitable outs later in the year.
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Super Bowl Futures Picks for Week 2
The goal of this bi-weekly column is to build a Super Bowl portfolio that will return a profit no matter who wins the championship.
Seattle Seahawks (+1100, FanDuel)
No Sam Darnold, no problem. Drew Lock was able to propel the Seattle Seahawks to victory in their season opener against the New England Patriots, winning 13-10. In their win, Lock was efficient with his attempts, throwing for 187 yards and 1 touchdown while completing 72.72% of his passes. His performance landed him in the top-10 in EPA per play, proving he can keep the Seahawks afloat during Darnold’s absence.
Speaking of Darnold, his injury could not come at a better time, schedule-wise, drawing the likes of Arizona and Washington. While the Cardinals did look better than projected in their Week 1 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, regression is looming large with the Seahawks fielding a defense that ranks near the top of the board in Def EPA and in Success Rate.
At +1100, the Seahawks are worth an addition to the portfolio, locking in a team that rivals the Los Angeles Rams in DVOA while nearly double the price. Their suffocating coverage and relentless pressure on defense will help them avoid falling too far behind on a weekly basis, keeping them competitive enough to string together their wins.
San Francisco 49ers (+1500, FanDuel)
Thoughts on the Los Angeles Rams’ travel schedule aside, the San Francisco 49ers’ performance on Thursday night was impressive. Trent Williams neutralizing Myles Garrett helped give their skill players the time they needed to exploit the Rams’ gaps in coverage, resulting in a top-5 finish in Dropback Success Rate.
Their defense was also able to give them the production they needed to help pull away on the scoreboard, climbing up to fourth in Def EPA. It is worth noting their front seven did struggle to keep the Rams comfortably behind the sticks, an issue that has persisted for years. If the 49ers want to avoid playing in highly volatile contests, then they will need to quickly find a way to bottle up opposing running backs in the trenches.
With that said, the 49ers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and are more than capable of keeping pace with the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West. If their front seven can stop the run at a more consistent rate, then the 49ers will have no glaring weaknesses, making them one of the more well-rounded contenders in the league.
Houston Texans (+2000, Caesars)
Even in their loss, I was still impressed by the Houston Texans, strengthening my belief in their ability to compete with the top of the AFC. While their performance on defense was eyebrow-raising, their regression can be attributed to a tough matchup, brushing aside any overreaction.Â
Their turnaround on offense is what really caught my attention, leaping into the top half of the board in Off EPA and in Success Rate. Other than their play calling in the red zone, the Texans have shown they are able to keep pace, complementing a defense that is expected to quickly round back into form. At their current price, the Texans are my favorite Super Bowl future heading into Week 2.
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