The Broncos are -2.5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 44 points
Watch this game on CBS
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (0-1-0) on Sep. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 pm in Denver, CO.
The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-118).
The Jaguars vs. Broncos Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under
SpreadTotal (O/U)MoneylineJaguars+2.5 -10244 +105+125Broncos -2.5 -11844 -135-150
Jaguars vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 59.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Jaguars vs Broncos Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
Parker Washington has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
Parker Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Parker Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
Bhayshul Tuten has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Trevor Lawrence has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Jaguars
Player Name
Anytime TD Odds
J.K. Dobbins
+125
Bhayshul Tuten
+155
Jaylen Waddle
+175
RJ Harvey
+175
Parker Washington
+185
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Broncos vs Jaguars
Player Name
Over
Under
Parker Washington
54.5 -115
54.5 -115
Jaylen Waddle
53.5 -115
53.5 -115
Courtland Sutton
43.5 -111
43.5 -118
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Broncos vs Jaguars
Player Name
Over
Under
J.K. Dobbins
53.5 -115
53.5 -115
Bhayshul Tuten
50.5 -111
50.5 -118
Jaguars Best Bets:
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+12.35 Units / 30% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 35% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+4.90 Units / 28% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
Jaguars are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 23.26% ROI
Jaguars are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
JaguarsJaguarsJaguars are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
Broncos are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
Broncos are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Broncos are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Jaguars are 9-3 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .409.
The Jaguars are undefeated (8-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .601.
The Jaguars were undefeated (8-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .602.
The Jaguars are 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Broncos are 6-2 (.750) when not forcing a turnover since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .260.
The Broncos are 8-1 (.889) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .509.
The Broncos are 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.
The Broncos were undefeated (8-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .508.
Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos had a third down conversion rate of just 16.7% last week — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 12.5% last week — best in NFL.
The Broncos scored on 16.7% of their drives last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars defense allowed scores on 22.2% of opponent drives last week — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Broncos have thrown for just 6.3 yards per attempt since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 5.9 yards per dropback since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have been successful on just 42.4% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed a success rate of just 39.3% on play action passes since the 2025 season — best in NFL.
The Jaguars were successful on just 41.8% of plays they ran on play action passes last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Broncos allowed a success rate of just 39.3% on play action passes last season — best in NFL.
Jaguars RBs have 8 receiving touchdowns since the 2025 season — 2nd-most in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 7 receiving touchdowns to RBs since the 2025 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars ran successful plays on 74% of pass attempts in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Jaguars ran successful plays on 34% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Jaguars threw for 4 TDs in Week 1 — most in NFL.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos ran 24% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 1 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Broncos have started 63 drives inside their own 20 yard line since the 2025 season — most in NFL.
The Broncos ran successful plays on 19% of plays in the 2nd half in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Broncos scored on 17% of their drives (2/12) in Week 1 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Jaguars defense has allowed successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 34% of plays in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Offenses facing the Jaguars have thrown the ball 61% of the time (657 Pass Attempts/1,085 plays) since the 2025 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense missed 24 tackles in Week 1 — most in NFL.
The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 30% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Broncos defense had 68 sacks last season — most in NFL.
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