Here’s your annual reminder, dear reader. The first week of the NFL is a mystery. It’s an enigma. It’s a puzzle, wrapped in a riddle, smothered in secret sauce. We don’t know what we’re watching yet, and we don’t have the context to define it.
Does it mean anything that New York is 2-0 and Los Angeles is 0-2 so far? Do we expect the Bears to score eight touchdowns a game every week? Or for tight end Trey McBride to lead everyone in receptions?
Probably not. This is a very small sample size, statistically speaking, so we don’t need to overreact. I don’t expect Denver to look that bad all season, nor Arizona to look that good. In fact, I don’t think any team’s week one performance should define our expectations for them this season. The Jets, Giants, Raiders, and Cardinals all combined to trail for zero seconds in week one, that’s insane enough to realize how little the first week means overall.
By the way, Cleveland is the exception that proves the rule here. They’re not as bad as we expected, they’re somehow worse. I can’t tell who their dogged determination to keep trotting Deshaun Watson out there is hurting more, Watson, the team, Browns fans, or the entire concept of “football.”
So what do we actually know? Well, I can honestly say the Cowboys defense looked better at times, but definitely not most of the time. I know, it’s just the first week, it’s a first time defensive coordinator, it’s apparently the first time for some guys to understand the concept of “tackling,” and all of that. I understand how confusing it can be to see the exact same play run over and over again, Dallas, but maybe you could look into stopping it by week four.
As for the Texans, I’m not worried yet. Buffalo is going to carve up a lot of defenses this year, and that Houston offense seemed a bit better, which is enough to continue the cautious optimism.
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What’s changed as far as offseason additions? Well, new coaches did pretty well. The Chiefs getting Kenneth Walker seems absolutely huge. And the two biggest acquisitions of the offseason are both already on IR, so good luck with all that.
Past that, we don’t know much yet. More will be unveiled this week, probably at great emotional and financial cost to me. But that’s the way it goes, and anyone who tells you they already know what’s happening is going to complete ignore their predictions when they go wrong, probably by next week.
Time for the week two picks. Last week I went 5-3 straight up, and 4-4 against Las Vegas. In my defense, I expected the Rams to collapse, I just didn’t think it would be in week one against a team that’s often defeated by their own practice facility. Lesson learned there. Here’s my picks for this week. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.
Washington (+3.5) at Dallas: Both of these teams had offensive performances in week one, but not in the good way, more in the “clutch your pearls and recoil in disgust” way.
Pick: Cowboys to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer points.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at Houston: Good news, the Bengals finally have a defense. Bad news, their offense is wrecking your fantasy team. Or my team at least, please don’t tell me about yours.
Pick: Bengals to win it outright.
New Orleans (+7.5) at Baltimore: The Saints had a furious rally last week to tie the game and then missed a two-point conversion to lose in OT. That’s how you build an identity for your team, whether you win or not.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover, winning by eight or more points.
Indianapolis (+6.5) at Kansas City: Last year for Colts fans? “Eh, we’re injured.” Last week for Colts fans? “Eh, maybe we just suck.”
Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by six points or fewer.
Las Vegas (+6.5) at LA Chargers: You can put them in San Diego. You can move them to LA. You could drive them up and down the coast from Dana Point to Fort Bragg and all points in between, but the Chargers are always still going to be the Chargers.
Pick: Raiders to win it outright.
Cleveland (+8.5) at Tampa Bay: Baker Mayfield is the ghost of quarterbacks past for the Browns. Which honestly happens a lot, but this is one of the rare opportunities where a former Browns quarterback is actually worth remembering.
Pick: Bucs to win and cover, winning by nine points or more.
I’ll also take the Rams over the Giants, Seahawks over the Cardinals, and literally anything over an AI flier. Good luck, my friends.
Reid Kerr thinks eventually Pat McAfee will leave ESPN and become his own network, or possibly his own planet. You can always send questions, comments, and angry messages to him on Threads at @snowfire51.