Almost one year to the day, the Steelers are back.
Last season, Aaron Rodgers and Co. rolled into Gillette Stadium as Week 3 favorites and handed the Patriots the last loss they would suffer for almost three months. Late in the fourth quarter, DeMario Douglas caught a short fourth-down pass from Drake Maye on a potential game-tying drive, stepped back from the line to gain and got tackled short. Pittsburgh escaped with a 21-14 win, while the Pats lamented not only Douglas’ mistake but five fumbles, and many on the outside wondered if they would get their act together in Year 1 under Mike Vrabel.
How times have changed.
The Steelers are now underdogs on their return trip to Foxboro to battle the reigning AFC champions in Week 2. They held off the Falcons in their opener 20-13, surviving on a late T.J. Watt pick-six that boosted them in the fourth quarter. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been stewing since they dropped their opener at Seattle on a mindless Maye interception.
Having lost A.J. Brown to a high ankle sprain, the Pats must find new ways to generate offense and get Maye into a rhythm. Here’s how they can do that and hold off the Steelers on Sunday:
When the Patriots run
The return of TreVeyon Henderson will give the Patriots a home-run threat out of the backfield they missed in Seattle. Henderson has recovered from the ankle injury that kept him out against the Seahawks, when Rhamondre Stevenson played more than 80% of the snaps. Stevenson struggled to find open rushing lanes, rushing for 51 yards total and 50 after contact.
Stevenson should again see the majority of carries, following how the Patriots split reps in training camp when both players were healthy. And if the rushing attack struggles early, don’t expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaneis to abandon it. Speaking to reporters this week, McDaniels emphasized that sometimes running the ball can be a long game, weakening a defense over time before breaking a long run in the second half.
“I thought our guys hung in there, and we ended up having some of our best runs in the fourth quarter,” McDaniels said. “And patience is important.”
When the Patriots pass
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) runs against Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (99) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
If the Patriots protect the ball, it’s hardly a stretch to expect more passing production Sunday. But that’s a big “if.”
Watt has the offense’s attention, just like he did last year when the Patriots chipped him and sometimes kept a tight end in to help right tackle Morgan Moses in pass protection. Still, Watt finished with two sacks, just like he had last week against the Falcons.
Play-action is another way McDaniels could try to slow Watt down and simultaneously pick at an area in Pittsburgh’s defense that he attacked last year: inside linebackers. The Pats called play-action on 30% of their dropbacks and ran constant shifts and motions to displace the second level of the Steelers’ defense. That helped lead to 11 targets for tight end Hunter Henry, who scored two touchdowns in defeat.
Out wide, the Patriots simply need more from Romeo Doubs in Brown’s absence. Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams should also be targeted on deep routes and shouldn’t see much man-to-man coverage. Last week, Pittsburgh played zone on a league-high 90% of its defensive snaps.
When the Steelers run
The Steelers averaged just 2.8 yards per carry against Atlanta, and the advanced numbers weren’t any prettier. The question is: can the Patriots stop the run without committing extra and/or bigger bodies up front?
In Seattle, the Pats opened with three-safety nickel personnel and mostly got a handle on the Seahawks’ run game, save for a few outside runs. That helped them protect against the pass, and specifically Seattle’s tight ends. The addition of veteran defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, who played under Vrabel in Tennessee and has started every game he’s played in since 2014, should help their front-seven depth.
But if the Patriots have to play more base personnel, with an extra linebacker or defensive lineman and only four defensive backs, they could be vulnerable against the pass with tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington at Rodgers’ disposal.
In the backfield, Jaylen Warren remains the Steelers’ top back, while they added ex-Cowboys and Panthers rusher Rico Dowdle to form a one-two punch. Rodgers is also a threat to scramble, especially in the red zone.
When the Steelers pass
Get ready for some jump balls.
Steelers receivers D.K. Metcalf and newly-acquired Michael Pittman (questionable, foot) both stand at 6-foot-4 and will tower over at least one Patriots’ starting cornerback with Carlton Davis (questionable, neck) potentially out for Sunday. In his place, expect the Pats to rely on starting nickel Marcus Jones, who can play outside but is only 5-foot-8, and third-year backup Charles Woods. Metcalf caught a touchdown last year, while Pittman led all pass-catchers with 58 yards in the opener.
Expect the Patriots to blitz Rodgers, knowing pressure, at age 42, makes him turtle in the pocket more than it ever has before. Rodgers’ quick release will negate some of those blitzes, but the defense knows that affecting him will eliminate some of the danger Metcalf and Pittman pose downfield.
“We want to be able to get him off his spot,” said Pats safety Kevin Byard. “You know, I think in any quarterback in this league, especially a future Hall of Famer, if you just let him feel comfortable back there in the pocket, he’s going to dice you up. That’s just kind of how it is.”
Prediction
Patriots 20, Steelers 19