John Harbaugh’s New York Football Giants made the Dallas Cowboys defend four scoring drives of at least ten plays on the first nationally-televised Sunday night game of the year. Jaxson Dart repeatedly found the right read that prolonged their drives and led to scoring. New York converted nine of 11 third downs (and recovered three of its four fumbles—less sexy). Their league-leading 59.4 yards per possession partly reflects those mistakes, so the number’s sort of deceptively unimpressive. Which is to say I like what I’ve seen thus far from Matt Nagy’s new offense, but I’d expect they leave some of their good fortune behind in Jersey. Especially headed to SoFi, against a Rams team which’s had just about as many global misfortunes as one team can have only a single game into the NFL campaign. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nagy used two or fewer receivers on 45.5% of dropbacks, up from 28.5% for the Giants last season. He called play action for Dart on 33% of dropbacks. Dart also took six designed runs before victory formation kneeldowns. The Rams’ linebackers will have to account for him alongside Cam Skattebo; I expect Nagy to keep throwing behind defenders who step toward the run, particularly with Isaiah Likely working inside. I imagine Likely could be a nightmare for Nate Landman and the likes of LA’s linebacking core.
Dart completed 17 of 20 throws released within 2.5 seconds of the snap against Dallas. San Francisco used the same quick passing approach against Los Angeles, whose rush generated quick pressure on just 5.6% of dropbacks. Aaron Donald’s expected return changes the interior matchup some, particularly in the run game.Myles Garrett hitting IR with a knee injury won’t feel too different from last week, since he didn’t generate a single pressure. With some expected positive regression for the Rams’ front seven, I’ll remind you that Dallas forced a sack-fumble when Dart missed a slot blitz last Sunday Night. He’ll still need to recognize where Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula sends pressure; Devin Singletary is particularly good in pass protection, and I expect Nagy to deploy him against Shula’s blitzes.
I was, however, a little less persuaded than most by the Giants’ defensive performance. They surrendered 43.4 yards per possession to Dallas despite allowing just 20 points, and now cornerback Paulson Adebo is on injured reserve, with Deonte Banks questionable. The Cowboys just offense just detonated against the Commanders, so I do give the Giants some credit for limiting the Cowboys’ scoring.
Still, 2025 NFL MVP Matthew Stafford should find Davante Adams against that depleted secondary, particularly if McVay remembers to keep him on the field near the goal line. Adams played just one of six snaps inside the 10 against San Francisco. One! With Puka Nacua off the field last season, Adams drew targets on 37.6% of his 93 routes and averaged 2.37 yards per route. I’d expect Stafford to demand Adams’ presence in the huddle considerably more often if Nacua’s hip keeps him out tonight.
McVay can also bring out three tight ends, draw linebackers toward the run, and trust Stafford to throw into the zones behind them; he used that approach to beat Jacksonville 35-7 last season without Nacua. Terrance Ferguson interests me here. He ran routes on 72.7% of first-half dropbacks in Melbourne, although his participation fell to 44.8% over the full game and Stafford targeted him only once. I can see Ferguson having the game folks’ve been waiting for, especially if Nacua sits, but McVay needs to sustain that early involvement. I’m expecting a change in how Stafford distributes his throws as much as better execution.
Giants vs. Rams pick, best bet
The Rams scored on 47% of possessions last season, then one of ten in Melbourne. I expect plenty more scoring drives Monday, though Nacua remains legitimately questionable with a hip injury after consecutive missed practices and Jordan Whittington is doubtful. Adams and running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum should bring Los Angeles back into the mid-20s against these Giants. But for the Rams to cover a full touchdown, Donald and Chris Shula’s defense would need repeated stops against Dart. I expect both Nabers to test Trent McDuffie and get some wins, and Nagy to target Jaylen Watson and the other under-construction parts of the Rams’ secondary such that Dart manages to keep chains moving again with his legs and his arms.
I’m backing Dart to sustain enough drives through Nagy’s quick throws and quarterback runs, and expecting more Skattebo than we saw in Week 1. At some point, Aaron Donald will materially stall a drive or force a field goal from the Giants. I have the Rams winning 27-23; I’m taking New York plus the full touchdown. I could see them making it interesting late.
Best bet: Giants +7 (-115)
Projected score: Rams 27, Giants 23.
Best Bet: Giants +7 (-115) at Rams