Todays Matchup Details

Week 3 Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 27th
27/09/26 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the Houston Texans Game Today

The Colts rank as the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 46.5% run rate.

,The model projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

,The leading projections forecast Jonathan Taylor to garner 21.0 carries in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.

,Jonathan Taylor has earned 82.7% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

,Jonathan Taylor has generated 83.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (98th percentile).

,With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.

,The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

,The Houston Texans have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 61.6 plays per game.

,David Montgomery has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this season (52.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (35.1%).

,With a stellar record of 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (76th percentile), David Montgomery ranks among the top pure runners in football since the start of last season.

,Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 63.1% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

,Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.

,With an impressive 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Schultz places among the leading TEs in the pass game in the league.

,Kayshon Boutte comes in as one of the most efficient receivers in football, averaging a terrific 11.34 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Negatives with the Indianapolis Colts Game Today

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -3-point underdogs.

,The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts since the start of last season (a mere 54.6 per game on average).

,This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

,Since the start of last season, the feeble Texans run defense has given up a massive 3.73 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-highest rate in football.

,The Houston Texans defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

,Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Texans to run on 36.9% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

,The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

,David Montgomery’s 2.7 adjusted yards per carry this year represents a significant decrease in his running skills over last year’s 4.9 mark.

,David Montgomery’s 2.04 yards-after-contact this year conveys a noteworthy decline in his rushing skills over last year’s 3.17 rate.

,As it relates to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season.

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