Todays Matchup Details

Week 3 New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 27th
27/09/26 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the New England Patriots Game Today

Brenton Strange has run a route on 74.1% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

,The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to total 5.3 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

,As it relates to air yards, Brenton Strange ranks in the towering 87th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 36.0 per game.

,Brenton Strange ranks as one of the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 34.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

,Since the start of last season, the poor Patriots pass defense has allowed a massive 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 9th-highest rate in football.

,With a stellar record of 205.0 adjusted passing yards per game (78th percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been as one of the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.

,Trevor Lawrence’s passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 60.5% to 67.6%.

,Trevor Lawrence’s 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target this season indicates a remarkable growth in his throwing efficiency over last season’s 7.2% figure.

,Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

,The Patriots defensive tackles project as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

,Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to run on 46.4% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest clip among all teams this week.

,Since the start of last season, the feeble New England Patriots pass defense has allowed a staggering 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 7th-worst rate in the NFL.

,Since the start of last season, the deficient New England Patriots defense has been torched for the 10th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 0.46 YAC.

,The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.

,The Patriots O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

,Since the start of last season, the shaky Jaguars defense has yielded a colossal 233.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in the league.

,With a high 74.0% Route% (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Hunter Henry stands as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

,The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to notch 5.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.

,Hunter Henry rates as one of the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 40.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

,When talking about air yards, Romeo Doubs ranks in the towering 81st percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 69.0 per game.

,Romeo Doubs’s 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 75th percentile for wide receivers.

,Romeo Doubs profiles as one of the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 45.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Negatives with the Jacksonville Jaguars Game Today

With a 3-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.

,The model projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

,With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (4th percentile) since the start of last season, Brenton Strange stands among the leading TEs in the pass game in the league in space.

,The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.21 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

,When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England’s group of safeties has been tremendous since the start of last season, projecting as the 10th-best in football.

,As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New England’s collection of CBs has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the 9th-best in the league.

,Since the start of last season, the daunting New England Patriots run defense has allowed a paltry 93.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

,This game’s line indicates a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.

,Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have only 125.0 offensive plays run: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

,Since the start of last season, the tough Jaguars run defense has allowed a paltry 82.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the fewest in football.

,The Jacksonville defensive ends project as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

,Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 10th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

,The Jaguars pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.31 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

,The Jaguars linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

,The Jaguars pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.28 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

,The Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (62.0%).

,Since the start of last season, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a measly 7.4 yards.

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