The Lions (1-1) and the Jets (1-1) take to Ford Field Sunday afternoon with each looking to bounce back from disappointing losses last week.
Josh Allen and the Bills won an offensive shootout against Jared Goff and the Lions in Hyde Park in Week 2, 31-21. Goff had a productive day through the air, throwing for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns. Wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in 9 receptions for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs added 113 total yards from scrimmage. Unfortunately for Detroit, their defense had zero answers for Allen and the Bills’ offense, giving up 446 total yards. The most telling stat may have been Detroit’s failure to get off the field on nine of twelve third downs.
The Jets suffered a painful, rain-drenched loss to the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium, blowing a 17-7 lead midway through the fourth quarter, ultimately losing 20-17 in overtime. As was the case with the Lions, it was the defense that betrayed the Jets last weekend. Geno Smith did throw for 247 yards including a touchdown to Garrett Wilson, but the running game struggled all afternoon managing just 29 yards on 16 carries.
Former Lions’ defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn returns to Motown for the first time since taking over as the Jets’ head coach. Glenn spent four years working under Dan Campbell with the Lions.
Key storyline: It all comes down to third down. The Jets boast an elite third-down defense, limiting opponents to just 23.8% efficiency over the first two weeks. If Aaron Glenn’s nickel packages can force Goff into third-and-longs, they can stall Detroit’s explosive offense and stay within the spread if not win outright. The Lions’ failures on third down were noted previously, they need to be better at getting off the field.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find a sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Jets vs. LionsDate: Sunday, September 27, 2026Time: 1PM ETSite: Ford FieldCity: Detroit, MITV/Streaming: FOX
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Latest Game Odds for Jets vs. LionsThe latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:Moneyline: New York Jets (+245), Detroit Lions (-305)Spread: Lions -6.5Total: 48.5
The line opened with the Lions laying 9.5 points but even though the number has favored the Jets, the majority of bets placed are on the Lions ML, the Lions ATS, and the Total OVER.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Jets and the Lions:Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the MoneylineSpread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Jets +6.5.Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 48.5.
New York’s defense gets off the field and doesn’t give up explosive plays. Against a Lions’ offense that just got held to 52 rushing yards by Buffalo, that’s a brutal matchup. Detroit’s offense is explosive, but the Jets’ ability to take away the run and force teams into long third downs is exactly the profile that keeps totals low.
Here’s the counterintuitive part: the Lions’ defense has been genuinely awful, allowing 71 points and 915 yards through two games. They’ve surrendered at least 30 points in both outings and are allowing 457.5 yards per game. That’s the single biggest reason the total sits at 48.5.
But the Jets’ offense isn’t built to exploit it. New York is averaging just 20 points per game (20th in the NFL), and Geno Smith has thrown for just 462 yards and one touchdown through two weeks. The Jets have been efficient — Smith is completing 70.8% of his passes — but they’re not explosive. They’ve scored 23 and 17 points in their two games, and they haven’t turned the ball over once, which means they’re winning with ball control, not big plays.
Simms and Rogers’ best bets for Week 3
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Jets vs. Lions: Betting Trends and StatsThe Jets are 2-0 against the spread this seasonThe Lions are 0-2 against the spread this seasonNew York is 0-2 to the OVER this seasonDetroit is 2-0 to the OVER this seasonJets vs. Lions: Quarterback MatchupJets: Geno Smith
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 46-65 for 462 Yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 95.8 RTG, Sacked 4 timesLions: Jared Goff
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 52-77 for 533 Yds, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 113.2 RTG, Sacked 5 timesJets vs. Lions: Top PlaymakersNew York JetsWR Garrett Wilson
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 11 Receptions on 14 Targets for 136 Yds, 1 TDWR Adonai Mitchell
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 9 Receptions on 14 Targets for 123 Yds, 0 TDsRB Breece Hall
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 38 carries for 131 Yds, 1 TD / 7 receptions on 7 targets for 79 Yds, 0 TDsDetroit LionsWR Amon-Ra St. Brown
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 19 receptions on 27 targets for 209 Yds, 4 TDsTE Sam LaPorta
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 11 receptions on 15 targets for 100 Yds, 1 TDRB Jahmyr Gibbs
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 45 carries for 208 Yds, 2 TDs / 11 receptions on 13 targets for 91 Yds, 1 TDJets vs. Lions: Injury UpdateNew York JetsTE Mason Taylor (thumb) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s gameWR Adonai Mitchell (finger) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameS Minkah Fitzpatrick (groin) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s gameLB Kiko Mauigoa (quad) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s gameRB Kene Nwangwu (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameDE Joseph Ossai (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameWR Arian Smith (knee) was placed on the IR Wednesday and is OUT for Sunday’s gameDT David Onyemata (groin) was placed on the IR Wednesday and is OUT for Sunday’s gameDetroit LionsG Ben Bartch (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameS Thomas Harper (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameOT Blake Miller (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameG Tate Rutledge (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameG Christian Mahogany (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameCB Avonte Maddox (foot) was placed on the IR Tuesday and is OUT for Sunday’s game
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