We are three weeks into an NFL regular season, and the 49ers are having conversations that, frankly, they shouldn’t be having.
Conversations like: Do we have too many injured players?
This is not a grand hypothetical, a quiet bit of crisis, either.
No, they’re literally asking if they have too many injured players.
It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t equally tragic. Because before the end of September, the Niners have, functionally, burned through all eight of their designated to return tags on their injured reserve.
Now John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have to start playing arbitrage with injured players.
Peripheral contributors who, otherwise, could have returned, are destined for the deep freeze of season-long IR, stashed away until January just to keep the active 53-man ledger functioning.
And even with that, do the Niners add DeMarcus Robinson, James Thompson, or now Nick Bosa to the injured reserve, or do they simply keep them on the roster, keep them inactive for a number of weeks, and play with a 51 or even 50-man roster?
These are, again, not the things you want to be asking yourself in September.
But here the Niners are, before what looks to be a legitimate test against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
The Cardinals might have been considered one of the worst teams in football coming into the season — a squad on-par with the tanking Dolphins — but in comparison to last week’s Niners opponent, there’s some real competence to Arizona.
The Niners might not need their A-game to win, but they’ll need something not far from it.
Even with a defensive line full of names that sound made up and a receiver group that might include a 13-year veteran signed off the street this week, I think the 49ers are able to get it done.
But it won’t be straightforward.
Here are three predictions for Week 3:
Prediction 1: Raheem Morris ditches the umbrella and dials up all-out chaos
If 49ers defensive coordinator Raheem Morris is conservative on Sunday, he deserves whatever Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals offense does to him.
Dropping into passive, two-high shell zone coverage against this Arizona offense is voluntary malpractice with the state of the Niners’ run defense and pass rush.
Brissett does not want to push the ball downfield into tight windows; he wants to execute a death-by-a-thousand-papercuts offense, peppered with immediate underneath jabs, speed outs, and quick checkdowns.
But if you give him the kind of time to stand in the pocket and let those deep routes develop, he has the arm and vision to execute those big plays.
Either way, San Francisco’s decimated defensive front cannot just rush four.
The antidote to their talent depletion isn’t patience—it’s violence; it’s chaos.
When opposing defenses rush four or fewer this season, Brissett is comfortable and highly efficient: 70 percent completion rate, 95.9 passer rating, +0.145 EPA/play. However, when defenses send five-plus, his numbers have plummeted across the board: 42.9% completion rate, 26.5 passer rating, -0.49 EPA/play. His only interception of the season occurred under blitz pressure.
The Niners do not have the Seattle Seahawks’ defense, but expect Morris to rip off many of the things Seattle did last week against Arizona. Perhaps the Cardinals have figured out the answer, perhaps not.
But the Niners’ answer isn’t to hope they have the right dudes up front to make plays.
2: George Kittle feasts as Kyle Shanahan runs laterally to crack Arizona’s interior
Nick Rallis’ defensive front in Arizona is built with beef. These are some big, wide boys playing more than just their gap and they’re quite effective at it.
Try to run straight duo between the tackles and you’ll will hit a brick wall for two-yard gains all afternoon.
Shanahan is too sharp to fall into that trap. The antidote to interior run-pluggers is perimeter leverage. So expect San Francisco’s rushing attack to bypass the defensive tackles entirely with gap and pin-and-pull concepts hitting the outside, utilizing Trent Williams and Connor Colby’s mobility out in space.
The real focal point, however, will be George Kittle. With Mike Evans banged up, the passing attack demands bootlegs, misdirection, and play-action concepts into intermediate voids. Arizona’s coverage coordination remains disjointed, and linebacker Mack Wilson (a wonderful run-stuffer) is stiff in lateral transition.
The Niners go wide with heavy personnel packages where Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk seal the edges on outside runs, setting up Shanahan to unleash Kittle on play-action chip-and-releases.
It’s probably not great that the Niners are really needing of their tight end — who tore his Achilles this calendar year — in this game, but Kittle is lined up for another absolute monster game Sunday.
3: One Matchup to Decide the Game
Everyone wants to talk about Marvin Harrison Jr, who is floating through routes, rounding off stems, pulling up early on scramble drills, and generally operating with an apathetic lack of competitive juice. Raheem Morris isn’t losing sleep over an eight-yard “speed” out to a guy who doesn’t want the football. You shouldn’t either.
But there is an underperforming Arizona receiver that does deserve your attention: The how the Niners play Michael Wilson, often isolated on the boundary, will likely decide this game.
Unlike Harrison, Wilson plays with violent urgency at the catch point, snaps off sharp intermediate breaks, and hasn’t had the ball come his way often this year — Brissett hasn’t had time to find him.
But with Morris forced to overload the box with blitz packages and with the need to devote serious attention to Trey McBride in intermediate voids, San Francisco’s cornerbacks are going to be left on an island outside against Wilson.
If the 49ers’ perimeter corners hold their water, Arizona’s drives dies on the vine.
That’s easier said than done, but I do believe it’s done. Keep Wilson under 80 yards and the Niners win.
The Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 23. The Niners get out alive, but Arizona covers in an ugly, grinding divisional bar fight.