Kenneth Walker has arrived in Kansas City with a workload that he never would have touched in Seattle: at least 23 carries and a staggering 178 scrimmage yards in each of his first two games. Against Indianapolis, he added six catches for a valuable 61 yards to his bruising 117 rushing yards. Andy Reid has entrusted him with the ordinary work between scoring opportunities, and Patrick Mahomes has enthusiastically participated. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Reid has also changed how Kansas City approaches that work. The Chiefs have increased their under-center rate from a modest 19.6% last season to a much heavier 36.2%, their PA rate from a measured 22.9% to a more aggressive 27.9%, and their motion rate from an already frequent 54.4% to a relentless 65.1%. Through two games, they have averaged a blistering 6.3 yards per play with a sterling 53% success rate. I see an offense mutating its identity, but still somehow keeping its franchise quarterback at the center of everything.
Mahomes threw for a dazzling 382 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis, finding Travis Kelce nine times for 101 yards. Miami favors Cover 3/6 on a substantial combined 53.6% of defensive dropbacks; Mahomes has averaged 8.47 YPA against those coverages since 2025, and Kelce has produced a healthy 2.16 YPRR over a meaningful sample of 222 routes. The Dolphins have conceded an alarming 3.26 points per drive. Reid has several credible ways to keep demanding another possession from them.
Miami has struggled to make those possessions worthwhile, posting a dismal 28.8% passing success rate this season. Malik Willis has converted a disastrous 32.1% of his pressures into sacks, and Chris Jones enters Sunday without an injury designation. Kansas City still needs to generate the pressure its front has failed to through two games this season, and it always starts with Jones. He could use a big game, here.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins pick, best bet
De’Von Achane remains the reason I resist a gaudy Kansas City shutout forecast. He has played an enormous 82.9% of Miami’s offensive snaps and run routes on an excellent 73.8% of dropbacks. Kansas City conceded a troubling 27 regulation points to Indianapolis, and Miami can manufacture offense through Achane even while Willis struggles. Conversely, Willis’s modest 197 passing yards last week included an explosive 77-yard touchdown with Miami trailing by four scores. Always important to keep garbage time in mind when it comes to passing totals on oildrum-fire teams.
The Chiefs still have Kahlil Benson replacing injured left tackle Josh Simmons, and Walker failed on three consecutive goal-line attempts last week. Mahomes must finish drives more cleanly as well as protect the ball. Kelce’s coverage history and Walker’s white-hot form encourage me. And, straight up, the Dolphins have yet to sustain enough successful passing at all to match Kansas City’s scoring opportunities.
Best bet: Chiefs -10 (-112)
Final score: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 17
Best Bet: Chiefs -10 (-110) at Dolphins