Todays Matchup Details
Week 4 Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Todays Game is on Sunday, October 4th
04/10/26 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff
Positives for the Dallas Cowboys Game Today
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
,The Cowboys have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.8 plays per game.
,This week, Javonte Williams is expected by the model to position himself in the 78th percentile among RBs with 15.3 carries.
,Out of all running backs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, comprising 62.3% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
,Javonte Williams has averaged 74.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to running backs (98th percentile).
,Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 62.5% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
,With a remarkable 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Jake Ferguson stands as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.
,Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to pass on 60.5% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week.
,Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
,The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.0 plays per game.
,The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
,Since the start of last season, the feeble Cowboys pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
,In this game, David Montgomery is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 77th percentile among running backs with 13.7 rush attempts.
,David Montgomery has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this season (52.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (35.1%).
,The Cowboys defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
,Since the start of last season, the anemic Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a staggering 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the largest rate in the NFL.
,CeeDee Lamb grades out as one of the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 77.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.
,Dak Prescott profiles as one of the top passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.
Negatives with the Houston Texans Game Today
The projections expect the Cowboys as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
,The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
,Since the start of last season, the anemic Houston Texans run defense has been gouged for a colossal 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s ground game: the 31st-highest rate in the NFL.
,The Houston Texans defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
,Jake Ferguson has been much less involved in his offense’s pass game this season (11.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.1%).
,The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
,Since the start of last season, the daunting Houston Texans defense has allowed the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a mere 7.2 yards.
,Nico Collins’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, notching a measly 7.81 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.00 rate last season.
,Nico Collins profiles as one of the weakest WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 19th percentile.
,Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run on 39.5% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
,David Montgomery’s running effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 2.64 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.94 mark last season.
,David Montgomery’s 2.08 yards-after-contact this season signifies a substantial regression in his running ability over last season’s 3.17 rate.
,When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Dallas’s group of DTs has been exceptional since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
,C.J. Stroud’s 57.0% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a substantial regression in his passing accuracy over last season’s 62.6% rate.
,With a poor 6.33 adjusted yards-per-target (16th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud stands as one of the worst per-play passers in football.
,Since the start of last season, the fierce Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a feeble 0.5 YAC.
,Since the start of last season, the fierce Houston Texans defense has conceded a meager 56.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the best rate in the league.
,The Houston Texans pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 7.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
,Since the start of last season, the imposing Houston Texans defense has surrendered a paltry 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
,The Texans pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in football.
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