Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Hey Parker, apologies if this question has already been asked, but why does Bo Nix have so many passes batted down at the line? Is it something that he’s doing, or just bad luck? Appreciate your great work!
— George P., Seattle (not a “12”)
Hey George, thanks for writing in and for the interesting question. Nix has had four batted-down passes so far this season, according to Pro Football Reference. Through three weeks, only Jared Goff (five) has more.
Nix had the second-most passes batted down his rookie year with 16 (Cooper Rush had 17 in only 12 starts that year). Last year, though, that number dropped to 13, which was ninth-most in football.
One thing to keep in mind on this: Nix has thrown a lot of passes his first two years. A whole lot. He led football with 612 attempts in 2024 and was sixth as a rookie with 567. Just for kicks, our incredibly large and accomplished stats department here at The Post — me hamfisting Google Sheets, to be precise — threw together Bat% (batted balls per passing attempt) using Pro Football Reference data for the past two full seasons. Nix had the sixth-highest Bat% as a rookie and was No. 14 last year.
So I think the first takeaway is, yes, he’s had a bunch of batted passes, but it doesn’t look like an outlier trend or something that Nix really struggles with compared to other quarterbacks in football.
In general, the most consistent indicator for batted passes is just where your release point is. You can be 6-foot-1 and have a high release point and be fine or be 6-4, release the ball low too frequently and get the ball batted down more frequently. Obviously, though, really short quarterbacks, even with a high release point, are at a disadvantage.
Other times, a quarterback doesn’t get himself into the proper throwing lane, making it easier for the defensive lineman.
Of the couple Nix had against the Rams, one was Kobie Turner just doing a good job getting to Nix and getting the ball as it came out of his hand. That ball floated and was intercepted by Josh Wallace. On another, Nix climbed in the pocket but then attempted an awkward, off-balance dump-off and it got batted away easily. That’s more the result of a broken play. He had one knocked down in the Chiefs game that was a good job by the defensive lineman leaping high. Nix on that one turned all the way back to his right and loaded up, which might have given Peter Woods enough time to realize what was happening. Sometimes, when a play is extended, an offensive lineman has a tougher time keeping the defensive lineman from getting his hands up.
Overall, Nix has more passes batted down than the average NFL quarterback, but having four early in this season looks more like a bit of an anomaly than a concerning trend. We’ll see if that holds over the coming weeks.
Since Bo Nix is a slow starter out of the gate, why don’t the Broncos run the ball more in the first two quarters to let him establish some kind of rhythm? Then, in the second half, let him throw a lot more in the third and fourth quarters of games?
— Mustapha A. Faal, Aurora
Hey Mustapha, thanks for writing in and for the good question. Part of it is that the Broncos have been bad at running the football on early downs early in games. It’s great to want to run the football early on — doubly so if it does indeed help settle your quarterback into a game — but if you run twice and end up in third-and-long, that’s not good for anybody and actually makes life more difficult for the quarterback.
The Broncos have played three different kinds of games so far, but over those three games they are clearly running the ball less and worse in the first half than in the second.
Here are the run rates and per-carry numbers for Denver through three weeks:
Week 1: First half — 24% run, 3.8 per carry. Second half – 41% run, 4.2 per carry
Week 2: First half — 41% run, 2.9 per carry. Second half – 53% run, 4.2 per carry
Week 3: First half — 38% run, 2.6 per carry. Second half – 44 % run, 3.4 per carry
Those numbers are even more striking because the Broncos have trailed by multiple scores in the second half of each game they’ve played this year and yet they’ve run it more frequently and better in the second half of each game so far.
What it looks like from here is multiple questions: How can the Broncos be more efficient running the football — and moving it in general — early in games? And how can the Broncos get Nix into rhythm earlier in games? If the answers to those questions are linked, that’s great. Generally, the early/late theory applied with Nix in the first half of the 2025 season when the Broncos were one of the most efficient running teams in football.
One consideration: Perhaps involving Nix in the run game a bit more, in a deliberate way, could help Denver on both fronts.
By my count, four of his 12 credited “carries” through three games are actual run calls. The rest are sneaks, kneels, scrambles and a dropped snap. Of the other four, three have had read-option looks where Nix might carry it, or he might hand it off to a back, depending on the look. None of the four have been in the first quarter. Perhaps there’s a designed run call for Nix somewhere in Davis Webb’s openers this week or somewhere along the way soon.
Be honest now. Before the season, did you have the Broncos at 2-1 on your bingo card? And what’s been surprising so far?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, no risk of revisionist history here. We’ve got plenty of evidence. But, as always, data interpretation can be a flexible pursuit! I did indeed pick the Broncos to start 2-1 in our preseason magazine when I went through the schedule week by week. I am also 2-1 in the weekly picks that we do as a staff.
Neither of those quite tell the whole story, though. In our preseason magazine, I picked Denver to win its first two and lose to the Rams. So 2-1, yes. But am I Nostradamus? Perhaps not quite. In our weekly picks, I have — maybe slightly surprisingly — picked Denver to win all three games. Obviously was wrong out of the gate, but have rebounded since then.
There’s a lot of early season noise, so it’s a little too soon to be truly surprised about anything, I think. I will say, I expected a faster start from the offense and a little bit stouter work from Denver’s run defense. But they’ve also faced really good opponents so far and they’ve won two of three. When you consider the way the first three games have gone, my broadest takeaway is there’s a lot of room for improvement and that’s a scary thought given who they’ve already beat. Of course, having room for improvement and actually getting better are different conversations. We’ll see how much progress Payton’s team can make. He’s historically been terrific in October after figuring out his teams through September.
OK, Parker. We’re three weeks in. What do you think about this team so far? I feel like it’s the same team we had last year, with better receiving options and a pass rush that’s finding itself. What do you think?
— Mark, Arvada
Yeah, Mark, that’s not a bad summation. They’ve shown a knack for making big plays when they need to, but it doesn’t feel like either side of the ball is fully in rhythm through three games. Opponent quality has something to do with that. You’re talking about three potential Super Bowl contenders out of the gate and another on deck Sunday at San Francisco.
One question I have is where the run game will come from over the next few weeks. J.K. Dobbins does not look like himself fully, RJ Harvey has not, to this point in his career, been a down-in, down-out runner and Jonah Coleman is out until at least Week 7 against Arizona.
There have been moments where the defense has not looked like it’s all the way back to 2025 form both against the run and the pass, but there are also encouraging signs, too. Four takeaways through three games won’t blow anybody’s doors off, but even that is a 23-takeaway pace. The Broncos had 12 last year.
To my eye, the defensive front has missed Jonathon Cooper, who is on the commissioner’s exempt list and facing a mid-November trial in Arapahoe County on a felony domestic violence charge and other lesser charges.
At the same time, according to Next Gen Stats, the Denver defense ranks sixth in overall pressure rate (39.5%) despite facing top-flight quarterbacks and, so far, posting the third-fastest average time to throw (2.67 seconds) in the league.
DENVER , CO – SEPTEMBER 27: Alex Singleton (49) of the Denver Broncos prepares to take the field during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Sunday, September 27, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
It’s clear we miss John Franklin-Myers and maybe Dre Greenlaw. The middle linebacker spot is a real problem. Singleton was out of position the entire first half. I know they like him personally, but we need a better player in that spot. And I really question if Riley Moss can get better or maybe this is just who he is as a cornerback. And don’t say it’s because Pat Surtain is on the other side. Last night Pat couldn’t shut down Davante Adams, so that’s no excuse for Riley.
— Anthony, Venice, Fla.
Thank goodness the Ponies showed up against the Jags. But after another sub-starter-level game, I’m still left scratching my head over what it’s going to take to acquire at least one average ILB? The sight of Alex Singleton grasping at air while fruitlessly chasing the latest player assignment to elude him can no longer be ignored!
— William Christensen, Orem, Utah
Hey Anthony and William, going to take these questions together since they are somewhat similar.
I think Denver has missed some of John Franklin-Myers’ pass-rush juice, but of all the players mentioned, I’ll stick with what I said above: the biggest absence so far has been Cooper. He’s not off the team, of course, but it’s also not clear when he might be on the field for the Broncos again.
Greenlaw is playing great so far this season for San Francisco, and he’s apparently OK after going down with an injury Sunday against Arizona. It’s unfortunate for the Broncos and Greenlaw that it just didn’t work out in Denver. Part of it is that he very clearly is more comfortable with the 49ers, and he’s said as much since returning there, both in news conferences and to The Athletic’s Mike Silver. Missing as much time as he did here — Greenlaw was rehabbing all of OTAs and minicamp, then really only had a few days of training camp before going down again and missing six weeks to start the season — put him in a spot where he just was never able to get going fully.
The inside linebacker conversation generally is not new. Some people refuse to believe that, on the whole, Vance Joseph is happy with the work Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad do. They are not perfect players. Coverage is not Singleton’s strongest attribute. Occasionally, teams get them in bad matchups. But A) there are not a bunch of inside linebackers walking around the other 31 buildings in the NFL who snuff out running backs and tight ends week in and week out, and B) Singleton and Strnad are productive players in their own right. Strnad, in particular, had a bunch of really good reps in coverage against the Rams. He had one bad one where somehow he ended up one-on-one in the slot against Davante Adams, curious in part because Surtain was lined up to Strnad’s outside against a tight end and they didn’t switch. That one went for a massive gain.
Aside from that, I don’t think it’s as bad as a lot of people make it out to be. Are they the Broncos’ best position group? No. Have they been beat? Absolutely. There was a play Sunday on the Rams’ final drive where Singleton bailed out of a simulated pressure look and busted it toward the flat because it looked like Kyren Williams was releasing there. Williams cut hard to the middle of the field and was wide open for 19 yards on third-and-10. Offenses clearly try to scheme them up to get matchups against them. But part of that is because the Broncos have proven guys in the secondary that most coordinators and play-callers — not Sean McVay on Sunday — are reluctant to test too frequently.
Talanoa Hufanga (9) of the Denver Broncos celebrates his game-ending interception on a pass by Matthew Stafford (9) of the Los Angeles Rams during the fourth quarter of the Broncos’ 30-26 win at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Did Talanoa Hufunga work on his hands in the offseason? It felt like he came close to several picks last year but couldn’t pull any in. He could’ve had four against the Rams. Far and away the best pickup we had last year.
— Mike, Denver
He sure did, Mike. Thanks for writing in.
Hufanga was a regular on the JUGS machine during training camp, which is when we’re most frequently able to see these guys in practice settings.
Hufanga spoke pretty openly at the start of the summer, too, about how one of the things he struggled with last year was still working to fully recover from his 2024 wrist injury, which involved torn ligaments and required surgery. That kept him off the JUGS machine for most of the offseason leading into last year and he said it also affected his hand-eye coordination.
Hufanga, though, was clear in taking responsibility for not catching the ball more last season.
Then he had his hands on two earlier in the game against the Rams, too.
When he caught them late, though, they obviously made a massive impact.
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