The New England Patriots are not unfamiliar with a 1-2 record.

In fact, they have been 1-2 after three games in each of the last six seasons, including last year when the Patriots beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 to start a 10-game win streak that propelled them to a 14-3 record, an AFC East division title and a Super Bowl appearance.

So it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Patriots can turn around their 2026 season after another 1-2 start.

But this year feels a little different.

Drake Maye obviously has not played like the MVP runner-up quarterback we saw last season. The run game has been ineffective. Top wide receiver A.J. Brown is out with an ankle injury. Hunter Henry is a reliable tight end but hasn’t made much of an impact. The team’s best offensive lineman, Mike Onwenu, has been lost for the season due to injury. His replacement was placed on IR earlier this week. The defense looked bad, especially against the run, in Sunday’s 35-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Several key players, including cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christan Barmore, are on this week’s injury report.

Oh, and by the way, the Patriots have to go on the road in Week 4 and play the first-place Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen leading the MVP race and James Cook playing like a top-five running back.

ESPN Analytics gives the Patriots just a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs entering Week 4. A loss to the Bills would drop that number even further.

The NFL playoff picture got a shakeup after Week 3, according to ESPN Analytics 👀

📉 Biggest drops:
Eagles: -26%
Patriots: -27%

📈 Biggest jumps:
Bears: +34%
Jaguars: +18% pic.twitter.com/9uZXDSsK5m

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) October 1, 2026

Since 1990, teams that started 1-3 made the playoffs only 14.3 percent of the time. The only team ever to win the Super Bowl after starting 1-3 was the 2001 Patriots, but to borrow a phrase from Rick Pitino, Tom Brady is not walking through that door.

Another issue for the Patriots is their schedule. Tankathon rates the Patriots’ remaining slate as the fifth-hardest in the league. When the schedule first came out, there were a couple games that looked very winnable that no longer appear that way.

One of them is a Week 5 matchup against the 3-0 Las Vegas Raiders. Are the Raiders really a playoff team? Probably not, and they have a tough test Sunday versus the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Las Vegas game is by no means an automatic win for the Patriots right now.

Even the Week 6 game against the New York Jets isn’t a layup. The Jets are 1-2 but have looked more competitive than expected. Geno Smith is a competent quarterback and threw for 321 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions last week. A Week 10 game against the Minnesota Vikings, who have started 3-0, also looks tougher. The Vikings defense has played fantastic.

A loss on Sunday would put the Patriots three games behind the Bills in the division race. Since 1990, teams that start 1-3 win their division just 7.7 percent of the time. So, at 1-3, a wild card spot is probably the most realistic path to the postseason for New England.

A win in Buffalo is not an impossible task, though.

The Chargers should have beaten the Bills last week. They did a great job defending Allen, who threw for just 204 yards with zero touchdown passes and two interceptions. He did run for 22 yards and two touchdowns on eight carries, while also losing a fumble. Los Angeles forced and recovered three fumbles, but they failed to capitalize on those opportunities.

Can the Patriots force turnovers against the Bills and take advantage of them? They have just two takeaways this season. They intercepted Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the second quarter of last week’s game and had to settle for a field goal after a 21-yard touchdown run by Maye was negated due to a holding penalty.

A major reason why the Patriots beat the Bills on the road in Week 5 last season — which served as a turning point for both Maye and the team — was because they won the turnover battle 3-1. Maye didn’t play lights out, but he protected the football (zero turnovers) and made the smart play consistently.

If the Patriots can follow that blueprint on Sunday, they’ll have a chance. They certainly don’t need any extra motivation. This game is as close to a must-win as it gets for a team that was expected to make the playoffs again this season.