Joe Burrow threw three TDs against Pittsburgh and still lost. Cincinnati now have to defend Trevor Lawrence, who has already thrown three or more scores twice this season despite staying below 30 attempts in every game. Jacksonville’s comfortable leads have shortened his passing afternoons. Burrow should keep him throwing considerably longer Sunday. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cincinnati have let Burrow attack at a +8.6% PROE, second-highest in the league, and he has justified that freedom with an excellent 82% catchable-throw rate, fourth among QBs. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both cleared 90 receiving yards and scored last week. Against a Jacksonville defense conceding 9.94 YPT to outside receivers, ninth-most, I want Burrow going right back to them.
Jacksonville’s pass rush can interrupt that plan, especially if questionable guard Dalton Risner struggles with his knee against Arik Armstead. Their 38.8% pressure rate sits just above average, though, and the rush has taken longer than average to arrive. That delay matters against a quarterback already placing so many throws within his receivers’ reach. Jacksonville should make Chase Brown work against their stout zone-run defense; Cincinnati have every reason to continue throwing.
Lawrence can work inside through Parker Washington, whose superb 3.80 YPRR against Cover 1 and Cover 3 comes over 35 routes. Cincinnati use that combination on 48.6% of plays, and Lawrence has attacked it efficiently himself, averaging 8.21 YPA across 43 dropbacks. Washington’s slot work particularly appeals to me against a defense surrendering 67.7 receiving YPG from those alignments, sixth-most.
Jaguars vs. Bengals pick, best bet
Through three weeks, Cincinnati have also conceded 99.7 receiving YPG to tight ends, second-most, and an NFL-worst 47.0 to backs. Brenton Strange and Bhayshul Tuten can attack underneath while Washington works inside. Jaylen Warren just gained 49 yards on three catches against the Bengals, a substantial receiving contribution alongside his 127 rushing yards.
I’m taking over 51.5, expecting Cincinnati to make Lawrence sustain his passing volume into the second half. Risner’s knee and Jacksonville’s pressure threaten that scoring pace, but Cincinnati can attack outside with Chase and Higgins while Lawrence works Washington and his underneath receivers. I have Burrow winning another busy passing afternoon, 30–27.
Best bet: Over 51.5 (-102)
Projected score: Bengals 30, Jaguars 27
Best Bet: Bengals vs. Jaguars o51.5 total points scored (+100)