The Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 11, 2026, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium. Dimers’ updated machine-learning models now project a 25-17 Bengals win and give Cincinnati a 75.3% chance to win. That lines up almost exactly with the prediction markets: Polymarket prices the Bengals at 76¢ and the Dolphins at 25¢, while Kalshi has Cincinnati at 76%.

Cincinnati still favored, but slightly less so

Since our first look at this matchup, the market has cooled a bit on the Bengals. Polymarket’s moneyline has slipped from 81¢ to 76¢ on Cincinnati, with Miami rising from 21¢ to 25¢, and Kalshi shows the Bengals down two points to 76% and the Dolphins up two to 24%. Dimers’ projected score also dropped from 27-19 to 25-17, though the eight-point margin is unchanged.

The spread remains a coin flip

Polymarket’s featured spread has come down a point, from Bengals -8.5 to -7.5, bringing it in line with Dimers. The model gives Cincinnati a 51.6% chance to cover -7.5 against 48.4% for Miami, with the best available prices at 48¢ for the Bengals on Polymarket and 52¢ for the Dolphins on Novig.

Both prediction markets lean slightly the other way. Polymarket has Bengals -7.5 at 48¢ and Dolphins +7.5 at 54¢, and Kalshi gives Cincinnati a 47% chance to win by more than 7.5. That leaves Dimers a touch more confident in a Bengals cover than the market, but not by much.

Dimers sees a lower-scoring game

Dimers’ projected score adds up to 42 points, well below Polymarket’s total of 46.5 and the 45.5 listed in Dimers’ sportsbook odds. Kalshi’s main total sits at 42.5, with the over at 51¢ and the under at 50¢, right around the Dimers number. Kalshi’s team totals track the projection too, with the Dolphins over 16.5 at 55¢ and the Bengals over 25.5 at 52¢, compared to Dimers’ 17 and 25.

Players to watch

Dimers projects 286 passing yards for Joe Burrow and 214 for Malik Willis. Chase Brown is the likeliest touchdown scorer in the game at 57.3%, with 67 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards projected, while Tee Higgins leads the Bengals’ receivers with 69 projected yards and a 44.4% touchdown chance. For Miami, Ollie Gordon (29.1%) and Willis (26.7%) top the touchdown probabilities, and Malik Washington projects for a team-high 48 receiving yards.

Volume is starting to build

Polymarket’s market has now traded roughly $4.13K, up from $1.34K, with $3.1K on the moneyline and $41 on the spread. Kalshi’s market is far deeper at $97,230 in volume. Lines could still move once injury reports start arriving later in the week.

Game detailsTeams: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsDate: Sunday, October 11, 2026Time: 1:00 PM EDTVenue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FloridaCompetition: NFL Week 5Dimers spread probabilitiesTeamCover ProbabilityPriceCincinnati Bengals (-7.5)51.6%48¢Miami Dolphins (+7.5)48.4%52¢

Win probability: Bengals 75.3%, Dolphins 24.7%

Predicted score: Bengals 25, Dolphins 17

Polymarket oddsMarketSelectionPriceMoneylineCincinnati Bengals76¢MoneylineMiami Dolphins25¢SpreadBengals -7.548¢SpreadDolphins +7.554¢Kalshi oddsMarketSelectionPriceMoneylineCincinnati Bengals77¢MoneylineMiami Dolphins24¢SpreadBengals -7.548¢SpreadDolphins +7.553¢TotalOver 42.551¢TotalUnder 42.550¢Prediction Markets:

Prediction markets are an increasingly popular option for Bengals and Dolphins fans as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. Here are our top prediction markets for NFL Week 5, plus available promo codes:

PlatformVerified codesNew-user offerPolymarketCUSE, SILIVE, OREGON, MASS, CLEVE$25 bonus on a $10 deposit ($35 total to trade)KalshiCLEVELAND55, SILIVE55, OREGONLIVE55
SYRACUSE, MASSLIVE1Deposit $25, get $55 ($80 total to trade)Bottom line for Bengals vs. Dolphins

Cincinnati remains a clear favorite, with Dimers (75.3%), Polymarket (76¢) and Kalshi (76%) all within a point of one another on the moneyline. The spread is where the uncertainty sits: at -7.5, Dimers leans slightly toward a Bengals cover while both markets price it just under even. With the model projecting a lower-scoring game than Polymarket and sportsbook totals suggest, the total is the other number worth watching as injury news comes in.

These projections and odds reflect data available at the time of publication and are subject to change as the week progresses.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Win probabilities and prices reflect model projections and market data at the time of writing and are subject to change. All times listed are EDT.

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