6. Chicago Bears (3-1, LW: 11)
The Bears get a big bump, and it’s because of their defense. Chicago had a bad Week 1 on defense, and that seemed to be in line with its preseason expectations. The Bears were 25th in defensive DVOA last season and didn’t make major improvements in the offseason. But over the last three weeks the Bears’ defense has been excellent. From Week 2 through Week 4 they are third in EPA allowed per play. The only touchdowns they’ve given up in three weeks was an Eagles quarterback sneak that was snapped barely before time ran out in the first half, and a garbage time touchdown to the Jets in the fourth quarter when they led 23-6.
It helps that Chicago has faced the Vikings with Carson Wentz, an Eagles offense that looks surprisingly inept and the Jets, but the results are impressive. If Chicago has an above-average defense, this is a Super Bowl contender. We all know the offense will be fine, especially when Caleb Williams returns.