We are heading into Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, and I’m ready to write something that I never thought possible just two weeks ago: The Atlanta Falcons are Super Bowl contenders.

Before I go on and make my case, full disclosure: I’m a Falcons fan. A skeptical doomer of a Falcons fan, but a Falcons fan nonetheless. With that being said, I still think this is the last week for us bettors to jump on the Atlanta train before it officially leaves the station, because if they put together another impressive win on Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens, the betting market is going to shift in a big way.

Let’s first take a look at their current odds, because there are many more ways to bet on them than just taking them to miraculously win Super Bowl 61.

Falcons Odds Ahead of NFL Week 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win Super Bowl 61: +8000To Win NFC: +3800To Win NFC South: +194Win Total: OVER 7.5 (-136)OPOY: Bijan Robinson +400DROY: Harold Perkins Jr. +5000CPOY: Michael Penix Jr. +850COY: Kevin Stefanski +1200Bets I’ve Placed This WeekTo Win Super Bowl: +8000 (DraftKingsTo Win NFC South: +194 (DraftKings)OVER 7.5 Wins -136 (DraftKings)Bijan Robinson OPOY +575 (Caesars)Harold Perkins Jr. DROY 250-1 (BetMGM)

Let’s start by talking about how good their offense has been with the return of Michael Penix Jr. In the past two weeks, the Falcons have led the entire NFL in EPA per play, and it’s not even close. They’re also first in success rate in that time frame at 61.8%, which is 7.4% better than any other team.

EPA per Play the last two weeks. (via https://t.co/pE3OQsReXL) pic.twitter.com/D7tS2NoADq

— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) October 6, 2026

It’s not just their offense with Penix Jr. Even before he took over as the starting quarterback, the Falcons had some promising underlying offensive numbers. Throughout the entire season, they have the fewest 3-and-outs in the NFL with just four, and their offensive line numbers have been fantastic. In fact, they’ve dominated on both sides of the ball.

The Falcons are still dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball pic.twitter.com/KTOkRCAy5N

— SūmerSports (@SumerSports) October 6, 2026

There’s no denying that they have two of the best skill positions in the NFL between Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Whether or not Penix Jr. can play at this high a level for the rest of the season is a fair question to ask, but ranking second in adjusted EPA per play and seventh in completion percentage over expected over the past two weeks is a great start to his third season in the league.

Now, let’s talk about the defense. It’s a unit that is missing some of their best players in Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr., and A.J. Terrell, but still ranks amongst the best in the NFL through the first four weeks. They’re eighth in opponent EPA per play, third in opponent success rate, first in opponent rush EPA, and second in opponent rush success rate.

The Atlanta Falcons’ run defense has been lights out.

✅ 193 rushing yards allowed (1st)
✅ 2.7 YPC allowed (1st)
✅ 0 runs of 20+ yards allowed (1st)
✅ 15 Rushing 1st Downs allowed (1st)

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 6, 2026

Not only has their run defense been elite, but their “Havoc” rate leads the entire NFL without their top two pass-rushers from a season ago. Let’s also remember that Pearce Jr. will return to the team at the end of his eight-game suspension. He led the team in sacks with 10.5 in 2025.

Top NFL defenses through four weeks in “Havoc” which is the % of plays a defense gets a pressure, TFL, forced fumble, INT, or pass breakup:

1. Falcons (46.1%)
2. Vikings (45.8%)
3. Seahawks (44%)
4. Browns (41%)
5. Bengals (40.7%)
6. Lions (40.6%)
7. Raiders (39.7%)
8. Bills…

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 6, 2026

One bet I specifically like is Harold Perkins Jr., the Falcons’ sixth-round draft pick, to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. His odds vary significantly at different sportsbooks, with his odds as short as 50-1 at DraftKings and as long as 250-1 at BetMGM.

He saw limited playing time the first two weeks, but has been fantastic since given more playing time the past two weeks. He racked up 10 total tackles, half a sack, and a pass deflection on Monday night against the Saints. He has also been the highest-rated rookie linebacker according to PFF.com. That makes him a fantastic bet if you’re looking for a long shot at 250-1.

Falcons may have landed a STEAL in the 6th round pic.twitter.com/6W750bguSy

— PFF (@PFF) October 6, 2026

As a cherry on top, the Falcons are being led by the right man for the job. Kevin Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year, and now he gets to lead the most talented roster he’s ever had. He got the team back on track after two Cooper Rush starts, and all of a sudden has them looking like world beaters.

At the end of the day, maybe I’m just being a delusional fan after two good wins against average teams, but if I’m right, you’re going to regret not buying some stock in the Atlanta Falcons this week.

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