Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers

Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst

21+ years betting experience

Updated:
Oct 10, 2026 , 07:10 PM ET

• 4 min read

Lamar Jackson’s injury and “Falcons Fever” has swung this spread nearly 10 points. Jason Logan isn’t buying it. He believes in Baltimore’s backup QB and a prideful Ravens defense on SNF.

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Sunday Night Football is for the birds in Week 5, and my Ravens vs. Falcons prediction is that Baltimore will cover the spread at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.

Here are my favorite NFL picks for this Oct. 11 matchup, with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

 TOP Pick
Ravens vs Falcons prediction: Ravens +3.5 

Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury and the Atlanta Falcons’ surging stock have swung this spread from a look-ahead of Baltimore Ravens -6 to Atlanta -3.5.

Baltimore sends QB2 Tyler Huntley into the fray, riding a steady second-half effort in Week 4. 

Huntley is a downgrade from Jackson but can move the chains with his arms and legs. It also helps to have burly RB Derrick Henry to lean on, placing Huntley in manageable down and distance.

Baltimore also presents the best defense the Falcons have faced, sitting just outside the Top 10 in many sexy metrics through its first four games under Jesse Minter.

The Falcons have feasted on soft stop units and will be playing on a short week after Monday’s win.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Atlanta’s rushing attack could be missing a major key with LT Jake Matthews dealing with a groin injury. The Falcons run left on 61% of handoffs (4th highest), and the LT position is hurting with Matthews and backup Michael Jerrell on the injury report.

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Falcons fever is spreading after two national-stage wins. But beating up on a busted Packers team on a short week and bullying the Saints’ shoddy defense isn’t winning me over.

Baltimore has been without Lamar before, and this defense is a prideful group that shows up on SNF.

Drake London hasn’t scored a touchdown in 2026, but with Baltimore stacking the box to slow down Robinson & Robinson, London could slip out for a score. Some models put his TD probability as high as 52%.

Mark Andrews is always busy when Huntley takes over under center. The veteran TE sees his targets tick up, and all projections call for 30+ receiving yards against Atlanta.

Ravens vs Falcons combo

Ravens +3.5
Drake London touchdown
Mark Andrews 25+ receiving yards

Ravens vs Falcons touchdown scorer: Drake London

The Ravens will sell out to stop the run and put the game on Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. In his two games back from injury, Penix has had eyes only for WR Drake London. 

He’s been targeted 16 times in the past two outings. However, London hasn’t caught a red-zone pass yet and is still hunting for his first touchdown of the season.

Baltimore has been burned by some big-name WRs, allowing guys like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Chris Olave to ball out. 

London’s Week 5 projections are positive, including his touchdown forecasts. Most models give Atlanta’s WR1 a 50%+ chance of finally finding the end zone.

Ravens vs Falcons odds

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Spread: Ravens +3.5 | Falcons -3.5
Over/Under: Over 43.5 (52%) | Under 43.5 (49%)
Moneyline: Ravens 39% | Falcons 62%

For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!

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Ravens vs Falcons weather

It’s a lovely climate-controlled Sunday night inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 5.

Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.

Ravens vs Falcons trend to know

Baltimore is 6-11 SU without Lamar Jackson but 8-9 ATS in those games. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Falcons.

How to watch Ravens vs Falcons

Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Date
Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026

Kickoff
8:20 p.m. ET

TV
NBC

Ravens vs Falcons latest injuries

Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team. 

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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