Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 17, 2026 , 07:46 PM ET
• 4 min read
Jacksonville’s defense shows its teeth in a Week 6 win over Houston.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence drops back to pass.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are favorites over the Houston Texans ahead of their 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Wembley Stadium in London, England, on Sunday, Oct. 18.
My top Texans vs. Jaguars prediction and NFL picks call for Jacksonville to narrowly secure a divisional win in the AFC South Week 6 clash.
TOP Pick
Texans vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars moneyline
This is a bad time for the Houston Texans to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in this AFC South clash across the pond.
Not only are the Texans heading to London for the waiting Jaguars, this is also the third road game in three weeks for Houston. Additionally, the Texans have faced the basement-dwelling Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans stop units over their past two games.
The uptick in class is going to be too much for the Houston offense, with Jacksonville ranking third in defensive DVOA, allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and the second-fewest points per drive.
I recommend the Jags’ moneyline to 62%.
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Texans vs Jaguars combo
Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence has thrown for a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt and a 67.1 completion percentage, and he also ranks eighth in adjusted EPA per play.
The Texans have also posted middling ranks against the pass, with a 16th-ranked pass defense DVOA. They sit 19th in EPA per dropback, and Lawrence has aired it out for 558 yards the past two weeks.
Turning to Houston running back Woody Marks, he’s set for a lead role with David Montgomery (groin) sidelined, and Marks rushed for a respectable 4.1 yards per carry for 62 total in Week 5.
Additionally, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans praised the second-year back’s play and confirmed Marks would be heavily involved again this week.
Texans vs Jaguars combo
Jaguars moneyline
Trevor Lawrence 225+ passing yards
Woody Marks 15+ rushing attempts
Texans vs Jaguars touchdown scorer: Bhayshul Tuten
Jacksonville running back Bhayshul Tuten has handled 60% of the team’s red-zone carries and boasts an elite 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and 109.4 PFF elusive rating.
He’s also scored in seven of his past 13 games and played 55% of the offensive snaps for the Jags this year.
With Houston allowing five rushing touchdowns this season, I’d back Tuten to find the end zone to 43%.
Texans vs Jaguars odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Spread: Texans +2.5 | Jaguars -2.5
Over/Under: Over 42.5 (50%) | Under 42.5 (51%)
Moneyline: Texans 44% | Jaguars 57%
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Texans vs Jaguars weather
The forecast calls for typical seasonal London weather with temperatures near 57 degrees, mostly cloudy skies, and a 12-mph breeze.
That will create potentially slick field conditions at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texans vs Jaguars trend to know
Jacksonville has won 15 of its last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Texans vs Jaguars
Location
Wembley Stadium, London, England
Date
Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026
Kickoff
9:30 a.m. ET
TV
NFL Network
Texans vs Jaguars latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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