Sam Farley
• Betting Analyst
10+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 17, 2026 , 07:08 PM ET
• 4 min read
Xavier Worthy should see plenty of targets with Rashee Rice sidelined.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) carries the ball for a touchdown. Denny Medley-Imagn Images.
Sunday brings an interesting divisional battle as the Los Angeles Chargers face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead, with the hosts unbeaten and the visitors still without a win.
The Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites and have a 78% chance to win. Tune in on Sunday, Oct. 18, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
My Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction is that the Chargers’ low-scoring offense will keep the game total Under.
Don’t forget to check out the rest of our NFL picks for Sunday’s slate.
Chargers vs Chiefs prediction: Under 41.5
I’m confident in a Kansas City Chiefs win, but the spread concerns me, so I’m tackling the Under because I’m not confident in the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense.
This unit ranks 32nd in EPA per play and 32nd in EPA per drive. The passing game hasn’t gotten going under Mike McDaniel, defying preseason expectations.
The Chargers rank 32nd in Pass EPA per play, and even the rushing game, a cornerstone of the Jim Harbaugh philosophy, isn’t working, with a 19th-place success rate in the NFL. The biggest issue is the offensive line, a unit missing key pieces, and the remaining pieces are still underperforming.
The Under is 7-1 in the Chargers’ past eight games, and despite this Chiefs offense looking impressive, it won’t be enough to push the total high enough to cover, especially with Rashee Rice out.
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Chargers vs Chiefs combo
Given that I expect a low-scoring game, I’m going to be cautious and play a three-leg parlay on the Chiefs here. I do love two touchdown scorers for the home team, though.
Kenneth Walker has scored six touchdowns across three of his four games this season. Xavier Worthy is also tied for second in red zone targets behind Walker and offers a serious RZ threat.
Chargers vs Chiefs combo
Chiefs -7.5
Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown
Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown
TOP PICK
Chargers vs Chiefs player prop: Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 receptions
It still feels like things haven’t really worked out for Xavier Worthy at the Chiefs yet, but they clearly believe in him because they keep trying to get the ball into his hands.
In their last game, he caught four of seven targets for an impressive 115 air yards. He’s had six or more targets in all but one game this season, and with Rice sidelined, he should get a lot of targets on Sunday.
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Chargers vs Chiefs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Spread: Chargers +7.5 | Chiefs -7.5
Over/Under: Over 41.5 (49%) | Under 41.5 (52%)
Moneyline: Chargers 22% | Chiefs 78%
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Chargers vs Chiefs weather
The conditions at Arrowhead will be fine, with temperatures in the mid-60s, clouds, and 10 mph winds.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Chargers vs Chiefs trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the previous five meetings between the teams in Kansas City. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Chargers vs Chiefs
Location
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Date
Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026
Kickoff
4:25 p.m. ET
TV
CBS
Chargers vs Chiefs latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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