IF Dolphins Land Top Pick: Trade No. 1 Pick or Select a Superstar?
The Miami Dolphins are only five games into the 2026 NFL season, but a conversation that nobody expected to have this early has already begun.
What should Miami do if it lands the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft?
With the Dolphins at 0-5 and undergoing a major rebuild under general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley, owning the first selection is becoming increasingly realistic.
And while many fans immediately think about selecting a franchise quarterback with the top pick, there is another decision that could have an even greater impact on the organization’s future.
Should Miami stay at No. 1 and select the best player in the draft, or trade down and acquire additional premium draft picks?
It’s a fascinating debate because both options could significantly accelerate the Dolphins’ rebuilding process.
The answer may ultimately depend on how Sullivan evaluates the talent at the top of the draft, how many teams are desperate to acquire a quarterback, and just how much another organization is willing to surrender to move into the top spot.
The Argument for Staying at No. 1 and Selecting an Elite Player
There is something to be said for having the opportunity to select the single best player in an entire draft class.
The Dolphins have spent years searching for difference-makers who can elevate the roster, and the 2027 NFL Draft could offer a chance to add a legitimate superstar.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is among the most exciting prospects in college football.
At approximately 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, Smith possesses the size, athleticism, speed, and playmaking ability to become an elite NFL receiver.
For a Miami offense that has struggled to consistently generate explosive plays, Smith could immediately become a foundational piece.
Imagine adding a receiver with his physical gifts to an offense that desperately needs a reliable, dominant target.
Smith isn’t the only intriguing possibility.
Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons and South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart are two defensive prospects who could develop into dominant NFL pass rushers.
Either player could give Hafley another explosive defender to pair with Chop Robinson and help transform Miami’s defensive front.
The argument for staying at No. 1 is simple.
If you believe a player can become one of the best at his position in the NFL, why pass on him?
Elite players are difficult to acquire, and the Dolphins may not have another opportunity to select a prospect of this caliber anytime soon.
Trading down might yield additional draft capital, but there is no guarantee those picks will produce players anywhere near the level of Jeremiah Smith or Colin Simmons.
Sometimes, the smartest decision is taking the superstar staring you in the face.
The Argument for Trading Down and Acquiring More Picks
As tempting as it is to select a potential superstar, trading down could be the smartest move for Miami.
The Dolphins aren’t one player away from becoming a playoff contender.
They aren’t even two players away.
Miami needs help at wide receiver, offensive line, cornerback, edge rusher, and several other positions. NFL.com’s assessment of the Dolphins’ roster entering the season identified wide receiver, cornerback, edge rusher, offensive line, and safety among the team’s biggest needs.
One elite prospect would certainly help, but would he make enough of a difference on a roster with so many weaknesses?
That’s where trading down becomes attractive.
If Miami holds the No. 1 pick and another franchise falls in love with a quarterback, Sullivan could demand multiple first-round picks and additional draft capital to move down.
Imagine a scenario where the Dolphins trade from No. 1 to somewhere between No. 5 and No. 10, receive another first-round pick in 2028, and add additional second-round selections.
Instead of selecting one potential superstar, Miami could add three or four premium prospects over the next two drafts.
For a franchise attempting to rebuild almost its entire roster, that could be tremendously valuable.
The key would be finding a trade partner willing to pay a significant premium.
And there is precedent for that type of deal.
The Chicago Bears Show Why Trading the No. 1 Pick Can Pay Off
One of the most significant NFL Draft trades in recent memory occurred in 2023 when the Chicago Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers.
Chicago received an enormous package in return:
The No. 9 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft
A second-round pick in 2023
A first-round pick in 2024
A second-round pick in 2025
Carolina moved up to select quarterback Bryce Young, while Chicago used the additional assets to accelerate its roster-building process. The 2024 first-round selection acquired in the deal eventually became the No. 1 overall pick, which the Bears used to select Caleb Williams.
Think about that for a moment.
Chicago traded one draft pick and received an established NFL wide receiver, multiple additional picks, and eventually another first-overall pick.
Of course, not every trade produces that kind of return.
The Bears benefited from Carolina’s subsequent struggles, which no one could have guaranteed when the deal was made.
But the example shows how valuable a first overall pick can become when another team is desperate to acquire a quarterback.
If Sullivan could secure anything resembling that package, he would have to seriously consider pulling the trigger.
The Biggest Question: Will a Quarterback Be Worth Trading Up For?
Here’s where things get complicated.
The value of the No. 1 overall pick often depends on the quality of the quarterbacks available.
When teams believe a franchise-changing quarterback is at the top of the draft, they can get extremely aggressive.
But what happens if the 2027 quarterback class doesn’t produce a clear-cut superstar?
Prospects such as Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and Darian Mensah have attracted attention, but evaluations of the class remain unsettled. Recent mock-draft discussions have raised questions about whether any quarterback will clearly stand out as an obvious first overall pick.
That matters because the Dolphins can’t assume another organization will offer multiple first-round picks.
There must be demand.
If several teams believe the available quarterbacks are similar in talent, they may prefer to keep their current draft positions rather than surrender valuable assets.
On the other hand, if one quarterback emerges as a can’t-miss prospect between now and April, Miami could find itself in an extremely advantageous position.
A team sitting at No. 7 or No. 8 might decide it cannot afford to wait and risk losing its preferred quarterback.
That’s when Sullivan’s phone could start ringing.
The Dolphins would have the leverage to demand a substantial return, especially if multiple teams were interested.
The Perfect Scenario: Trade Down and Still Land a Top Prospect
What if Miami could have the best of both worlds?
Imagine the Dolphins finishing with the No. 1 overall pick, trading down two or three spots, and still landing Jeremiah Smith, Colin Simmons, or Dylan Stewart.
Miami could add an extra premium draft selection while still landing one of the most talented players in the class.
That would be an ideal outcome.
For example, if a team holding the No. 3 overall pick wanted to move up for a quarterback, Miami could explore swapping selections while demanding additional compensation.
The Dolphins would still have a chance to select an elite player, depending on which prospects the teams ahead of them preferred.
Miami Herald reporter Barry Jackson has also raised the possibility of the Dolphins trading down a few spots with a quarterback-needy team and still selecting Smith, particularly if Malik Willis establishes himself as Miami’s answer at quarterback.
But there is a major risk.
What happens if Smith is selected before Miami gets back on the clock?
The Dolphins could miss out on the player they truly wanted.
That’s why Sullivan needs to decide how many prospects he considers truly elite.
If Miami has five players graded similarly, moving from No. 1 to No. 4 might be relatively painless.
But if the Dolphins believe Smith is significantly better than everyone else, moving down could be a costly mistake.
Why the Dolphins Shouldn’t Trade Down Just to Trade Down
Another important point cannot be overlooked.
Accumulating draft picks sounds great, but more picks don’t automatically produce better players.
The Dolphins have to draft well.
If Sullivan trades away the opportunity to select a future All-Pro and uses the acquired picks on average players, the deal could ultimately set the franchise backward.
Miami fans have seen enough roster turnover and failed personnel decisions over the years to understand that quantity doesn’t always equal quality.
The Dolphins need difference-makers, not simply more names on the roster.
This is why the organization’s scouting department must be absolutely certain about its evaluations.
If Jeremiah Smith is viewed as a generational receiver, Miami shouldn’t casually pass on him for an extra second-round pick.
If Colin Simmons is projected to become a perennial double-digit sack producer, the Dolphins must weigh that potential impact against the uncertainty of additional picks.
But if Sullivan believes the draft has several similarly talented players at the top, trading down becomes much more attractive.
It’s all about balancing the player’s value against the trade package’s value.
What Would Be a Fair Trade Package for Miami?
Every draft is different, but the Dolphins should establish a minimum asking price before seriously entertaining offers.
Here are three hypothetical scenarios.
Trade scenario
What Miami could seek
Move from No. 1 to No. 3
Additional Day 2 compensation, potentially more if bidding is intense
Move from No. 1 to No. 6
A future first-round pick plus additional draft capital
Move from No. 1 to No. 10
Multiple premium picks, potentially including more than one future first-rounder
These are illustrative negotiating targets, not reported offers or guaranteed market values. Actual compensation would depend on the quarterback class, competing bidders, and the exact draft positions.
The further Miami moves down, the more compensation Sullivan should demand.
And there should be a limit to how far the Dolphins are willing to fall.
Trading down from No. 1 to No. 4 is very different from dropping all the way to No. 15.
At some point, Miami would risk leaving the elite tier of prospects entirely.
For a team desperate for top-end talent, that could be a dangerous gamble.
What Should Jon-Eric Sullivan Do?
If I were making the decision for Miami, I would enter the 2027 NFL Draft ready to listen to trade offers.
But I wouldn’t commit to trading the pick before seeing what other teams were willing to surrender.
My preferred strategy would be to trade down a few spots, get an additional first-round pick, and still select a player who could become a franchise cornerstone.
That’s the type of move that could accelerate Miami’s rebuild without sacrificing access to elite talent.
However, if no team offers a substantial package, I would have absolutely no problem staying at No. 1 and selecting Jeremiah Smith or whichever non-quarterback prospect Miami believes has the highest ceiling.
The Dolphins shouldn’t accept a mediocre trade simply because accumulating draft picks sounds appealing.
And they shouldn’t get so attached to one player that they refuse a franchise-altering offer.
The smartest general managers understand the value of flexibility.
Sullivan needs to be prepared for both scenarios.
Final Thoughts: Miami Must Get This Decision Right
The Dolphins have a long way to go before the 2027 NFL Draft, and there is no guarantee they will ultimately own the No. 1 overall pick.
At 0-5, Miami remains one of the league’s last winless teams, but there are still plenty of games left on the schedule. Following Week 6, the Los Angeles Chargers currently sit ahead of the Dolphins in the projected draft order.
Still, selecting first overall is possible.
If that opportunity arises, Sullivan could face one of the most important decisions of his tenure as general manager.
Does he select an elite talent like Jeremiah Smith and hope that player becomes a cornerstone of the organization?
Or does he trade down, accumulate valuable draft capital, and attempt to build a deeper, more complete roster?
Both strategies have merit.
But for a Dolphins team with so many needs, the chance to acquire multiple premium selections could be too valuable to pass up.
I’d prefer to trade down, but only for an offer that is too good to refuse.
If Miami can move down a few spots, add a future first-round pick, and still land a blue-chip prospect, that would be the ideal outcome.
If not, stay at No. 1 and take the superstar.
Because at the end of the day, the Dolphins don’t simply need more draft picks.
They need great football players.
And whatever Sullivan decides, Miami cannot afford to get this one wrong.