The 49ers are 6-0, but their injury list keeps getting longer. Monday’s 23-17 win over Washington gave San Francisco its sixth straight victory and showed again what this team has: McCaffrey scored two touchdowns and had 117 yards from scrimmage, Kittle opened the scoring, and the defense held the Commanders to 53 rushing yards. It also cost them Mike Evans in the second quarter. The veteran receiver had already caught three passes for 94 yards when his Achilles tendinitis flared up, and he’s “still TBD” for Sunday’s trip to Atlanta (10:00 AM PT), according to GM John Lynch. Nick Bosa (calf), who has missed four straight games, is in “that same bucket,” and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is still out. With a bye week coming next, San Francisco has every reason to be careful with its stars.

The Falcons (2-4) need a win. They lost 31-23 to Chicago last Sunday and had the ball for under 20 minutes, while the Bears ran 73 plays to Atlanta’s 50. Bijan Robinson and Drake London are still capable of taking over a game, and Michael Penix Jr. will need both of them against a defense that just recorded four sacks. Atlanta’s secondary is also banged up, with A.J. Terrell (groin) and C.J. Henderson (groin) limited in practice. We compared our advanced simulation models against live Kalshi prices (code OREGONLIVE55) to find the value in this NFC matchup.

49ers at Falcons: Detailed BreakdownMatch Detail / MarketMetric / Betting LineFixtureSan Francisco 49ers at Atlanta FalconsDate & TimeSunday, October 25, 2026, 10:00 AM PT /
1:00 PM ETVenueMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)49ers Moneyline-144 (Sportsbook) / 60¢ Yes (Kalshi)Falcons Moneyline+138 (Sportsbook) / 42¢ Yes (Kalshi)Point Spread49ers -2.5 (-111) / Falcons +2.5 (+108) / Kalshi “49ers win by over 2.5”: Yes 53¢, No 48¢Total Points (Over/Under)50.5 (Sportsbook) / Kalshi Over 49.5: Yes 52¢, No 49¢Model Projected Score49ers 27, Falcons 24Model Win Probabilities49ers 61.0% / Falcons 39.0%Kalshi Market Trends and Model Benchmarks:

These are current Kalshi contract prices, where each contract pays $1 if it hits, shown next to the model’s probabilities:

49ers to Win: Yes at 60¢ (61.0% model probability)Falcons to Win: Yes at 42¢, No at 59¢ (39.0% model probability)49ers Win by Over 2.5 Points: Yes at 53¢, No at 48¢ (53.5% model probability at 3.5, and higher at 2.5)Over 49.5 Total Points: Yes at 52¢, No at 49¢ (model projects 51 combined points)Falcons Team Total Over 24.5: Yes at 47¢, No at 54¢ (model projects 24 Falcons points)49ers Team Total Over 27.5: Yes at 45¢, No at 56¢ (model projects 27 49ers points)Projected Player Statistics and TD Probabilities:

Our predictive models projected offensive output across passing, rushing and receiving for Week 7. On Kalshi, a player’s touchdown probability equals the fair price of his anytime touchdown contract in cents.

Quarterback Projections

Brock Purdy (SF): 242 Projected Passing Yards, 21 Projected Rushing Yards (19.6% TD Probability)Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 230 Projected Passing Yards, 7 Projected Rushing Yards (10.0% TD Probability)

Rushing and Receiving Efficiency

PlayerTeamProj. YardsTD ProbabilityBijan RobinsonATL (RB)85 Rush / 30 Rec64.0%Christian McCaffreySF (RB)64 Rush / 44 Rec63.0%George KittleSF (TE)66 Rec41.6%Drake LondonATL (WR)85 Rec33.0%Kyle PittsATL (TE)37 Rec26.6%Brian Robinson Jr.ATL (RB)27 Rush25.0%Brandin CooksSF (WR)36 Rec18.4%Kaelon BlackSF (RB)30 Rush18.1%Jahan DotsonATL (WR)34 Rec18.0%Christian KirkSF (WR)26 Rec15.8%J. WatkinsSF (WR)36 Rec13.5%Olamide ZaccheausATL (WR)14 Rec7.3%Deep Betting Market Analysis and Model Angles:

Outright Win Probability: 49ers (61.0% Model Probability). The models give San Francisco a 61.0% chance to improve to 7-0. Kalshi prices 49ers “Yes” at 60¢, close to fair. The cheaper way to back the 49ers is Falcons “No” at 59¢, two cents below the model’s number. Falcons “Yes” at 42¢ is about three cents more than the model’s 39.0%, so there’s no value on the upset.

Point Spread Angle: 49ers Win by Over 2.5 (Yes at 53¢ on Kalshi). This is the strongest play on the board. The simulations project a 27-24 49ers win, and even at the wider -3.5 they give San Francisco a 53.5% chance to cover. Kalshi’s line is 2.5, so a three-point 49ers win also pays. Three is the most common final margin in the NFL, so the extra half-point matters. Paying 53¢ for a contract the model rates above 53.5% is the clearest edge in this game.

Total Points Angle: Lean Over 49.5 (Yes at 52¢). The model projects 51 combined points, a point and a half above Kalshi’s total and half a point above the 50.5 at most sportsbooks. The team totals tell a slightly different story. The model projects each team a point or less below its own line (49ers 27 vs. 27.5, Falcons 24 vs. 24.5), which shows how close these numbers are. Treat the Over as a lean. If Evans and Bosa are ruled out, that would change the scoring picture, so wait for Friday’s update before betting it.

Featured Prop Value: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (64.0% Model Probability). Robinson has the highest touchdown probability in the game, ahead of even McCaffrey (63.0%). The model projects him for 85 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards, and Atlanta will need to run him a lot to keep San Francisco’s offense off the field. His fair price is 64¢, so anything at or below that is a good buy. Brock Purdy’s anytime touchdown contract is overpriced at 23¢ against a 19.6% model probability. Purdy “No” at 79¢ is slightly better than fair.

NFL Prediction Markets:PlatformNFL Eligible?Oct. ’26 Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarketYes$25CUSE, MASS, OREGON, SILIVE, CLEVEKalshiYes$55SYRACUSE, MASSLIVE1, OREGONLIVE55, SILIVE55, CLEVELAND55NovigYes$50SYRACUSE, MASSLIVE, OREGON, CLEVELAND49ers vs. Falcons Week 7 Conclusion:

San Francisco is unbeaten and has a bye coming, but Evans and Bosa are both uncertain. Atlanta is at home and needs a win after a frustrating loss. The 10,000 computer simulations project a 27-24 49ers win. The best Kalshi plays are 49ers to win by over 2.5 at 53¢ (code OREGONLIVE55) and Bijan Robinson Anytime TD at 64¢ or better, with Over 49.5 as a lean.

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